Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-16 14:12 | Report Abuse

oil price and currency is the obvious catalyst.

but there are others eg....Qantas moved from $ A 1.00 Jan 2014 to $A 4 now on the back of efficient improvements....

Tony can see it happening . Can you?

efficiency improvements based on the internet revolution, cutting off the middle men, big data analytics, multiple sources of income beside selling seats, better planes,
.....but the biggest catalyst of them all.....in the prisoners dilemma game between MAS and Tony, they have learn to cooperate- cooperate instead of killing each other. I do think Mueller of MAS must be Tony best friend.


Just hope local authorities do not kill the goose that lay the golden eggs.



400% increase in AAX means the share price go back to IPO price only.

Posted by sheep > 2016-04-16 14:30 | Report Abuse

sell house sell car buy AAX... Sell backside buy AAX-WA sure win wakaka

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-04-16 17:01 | Report Abuse

And if you are portfolio manager holding some export shares, you want some exposures to shares benefitting directly from ringgit appreciations.

Posted by pussycats > 2016-04-17 17:23 | Report Abuse

good write up

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2016-04-18 08:19 | Report Abuse

I saw you wrote Magni with RM6.90 nine months ago, now RM4.20, SAM to hit TP 10.15 6 months later which is now but just RM6.11, Latitude TP RM9 now RM5.60, SHH TP RM3.33 now just half of that.

CEPCO is not due for 6 months yet, and now Airasia. Is that why you stop assigning TP to Airasia?

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-04-18 09:32 | Report Abuse

I think the information is important. Author's TP is irrelevant

Good work you have done itisjustaboutprofit, please continue

Posted by Jonathan Keung > 2016-04-18 10:07 | Report Abuse

interesting good read on AAX. Main focus -savings on US Borrowing and lower fuel cost ( Y-o-Y ). Main driver will higher sales revenue

Posted by itjustabouttheprofit > 2016-04-18 16:30 | Report Abuse

Thank you my first fans Ricky Yeo or JT Yeo. Keep follow my post since I am first written article. Ya maybe for some share that i have shared not meet the target. But i tink you are wrong with Magni. Magni was RM3.80 when i written this. What is the price now? RM4.19 after bonus issue. You are totally wrong with this. Please go and check the date before commend.

I writing AAX not Airasia. You not even reading the title correctly before commend.

When you criticize people, please read carefully before you commend.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2016-04-19 07:36 | Report Abuse

My bad for seeing AAX as Airasia.

The price is higher now doesn't mean your prediction is correct make sense? You gave a PE 11, that is your prediction 6 months ago, so whether you are right or wrong is based on the PE you assign, not where the share price is right now.

I comment on most of your article isn't to criticize you, but to make you aware you are wasting your time estimating EPS or using PE. I understand your work is essentially a 'fundamental trading' but by now you should see the flaw in using PE to derive a TP and think the market will agree with you and move to that TP.

Your analysis is good but how you estimate valuation needs some changing. The thing that can move share price in a huge way is 2 things: Market expectation and ROE. Not EPS or PE.

Market expectation - Do you see why lose making companies or company that doesnt really make money, when they report a good quarter and suddenly the share price can rocket? Their PE can remain so low but you will easily make 100-300%. That is because 1) Market expectation - No one wants the stock, no one likes it, zero expectation, human become superman, the market says wow so the price skyrocket. and 2) ROE improvement - investors see ROE improvement and extrapolate. That is good news for fundamental trader.

Low market expectation x ROE improvement = Is what you need to look for.