21 people like this.

99 comment(s). Last comment by m00077 2016-08-21 14:59

SejukSam

972 posts

Posted by SejukSam > 2016-05-26 14:29 | Report Abuse

90 90 90

this is a well known rule in the US to refer to retail investors/traders

90% of the time, 90% of the investors lose 90 % of their money

go figure it out. and we dun need evidence. its up to u to believe or not.

this is wall street talk

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-26 14:32 | Report Abuse

everybody thinks he is smarter , smartest.

that includes the author

scientifically proven.

mudwyx

164 posts

Posted by mudwyx > 2016-05-26 14:35 | Report Abuse

In other words, 90% retail investor lose money are not statistically proven and are used to make the author looks smarter.

Posted by shareinvestor88 > 2016-05-26 14:46 | Report Abuse

Dear KC apart from forex gain or losses , if USD strengthens or weakens what is the impact on FLB profitability and net profit margin ?

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-26 14:51 | Report Abuse

we can only guess at what super investor did / is doing.
we cannot be sure except..............super investor cannot be super investor without margin accounts.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-05-26 16:06 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 26, 2016 02:51 PM | Report Abuse
we can only guess at what super investor did / is doing.
we cannot be sure except..............super investor cannot be super investor without margin accounts.


Please carry on guessing, use margin to the limit, worship your super investor, or whatever.

We are talking about investing here.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-05-26 20:09 | Report Abuse

Posted by TAH > May 25, 2016 04:50 PM | Report Abuse
Mr Kcchongnz,can u please calculate for us the intrinsic value for Focus Lumber?

Posted by popo92 > May 25, 2016 05:43 PM | Report Abuse
Kc, so far my fundamental philosophy on flbhd has not changed yet. Current price 2.04-2.07 already provide me enough margin of safety to sleep well. Mind sharing your price tag for peace of mind too? :)

While I do have an estimate of Focus Lumber intrinsic value, It is unwise to publish here for a few reasons.

Its share price can be volatile because of its low liquidity, coupled with substantial holding by some short-term traders, some of whom have huge margin. If the market turns bad, the fall of its price can be ugly in the short term because of margin calls, even if its intrinsic value is high, which is suitable for long term investor.

Some of them with some sort of "Golden rule" may also just dump the share without understanding or bothering what causes the drop in profit.

It is not good to invest in this share for short term due to the above reasons, though long term investing in it may be good.

popo92

567 posts

Posted by popo92 > 2016-05-27 21:36 | Report Abuse

KC, i agreed and respect that its unwise for you to publish your intrinsic value for reasons. And i couldn't agree more with your concerns with low liquidity, existing of short-term traders, "believers", downside of margin calls and "golden rule" players. However, I find it hard to resist myself from this cash cow bargain. Any advises for me?

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-27 23:17 | Report Abuse

yes, investing . I am talking about real investing to be super investor not wimps with 5% index returns.


=================
Please carry on guessing, use margin to the limit, worship your super investor, or whatever.

We are talking about investing here.

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-27 23:19 | Report Abuse

smallmanmind bullying people again...

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-27 23:20 | Report Abuse

smallmanmind PLP old man Koon again...

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-27 23:21 | Report Abuse

smallmanmind talking big again...

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-27 23:25 | Report Abuse

old man Koon has erratic performance

He thinks he is stock God

Smallmanmind said no need to think, just follow Koon to buy focus lumber, canoneļ¼Œ etc

Just blindly follow

Like a puppy follow master

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-27 23:34 | Report Abuse

smallmanmind doesn't care

He has no moral compass

As long as u r rich, he will side with u on everything

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-05-28 03:18 | Report Abuse

Posted by popo92 > May 27, 2016 09:36 PM | Report Abuse
KC, i agreed and respect that its unwise for you to publish your intrinsic value for reasons. And i couldn't agree more with your concerns with low liquidity, existing of short-term traders, "believers", downside of margin calls and "golden rule" players. However, I find it hard to resist myself from this cash cow bargain. Any advises for me?

"Cash cow bargain"? I kind of agree with you. But note these again

"low liquidity, existing of short-term traders, "believers", downside of margin calls and "golden rule" players."

However, you don't have to play in their field. Instead, focus on the business, treat buying a stock as investing in part of a business, oh yes, for longer term.

Invest1188

773 posts

Posted by Invest1188 > 2016-05-28 10:45 | Report Abuse

Think from the business prospect

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-28 11:03 | Report Abuse

Focus Lumber. It's a plywood and veneer factory. A smallish operation.
I have posted here several times....such a company , after one or two good years will still be the same company subjected to the same limitations of raw materials, logs, labour, commodity price of its products, it's a commodity company. There would be no transformation.
A closer look at this results shows that although profits exploded , there have been no volume growth......none at all. All the profit growth in the good years were a result of better prices and weaker ringgit.

Then, there are the sifus who like to look at cash in the balance sheet and calculate cash per share as if it give them margin of safety......


All I know is , is that there's lots of false prophets.

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-28 11:05 | Report Abuse

what about your idol ?

why don't you say something about his decision to jump into it big time ?

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-28 11:09 | Report Abuse

I also know .... Super investor is one with a few more zeroes in their cheques compared to mine. A super educated writer is one with a few more alphabets after their name.

All means nothing to me.

I am here to enjoy myself.

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-28 11:11 | Report Abuse

I thought you said your Idol super investor is incapable of making mistakes ? So u r now reversing your position ?

That seemed to be the case, but I just want to hear u say it

I am also here to enjoy myself

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-28 11:23 | Report Abuse

Icon...I know you as the leader of the anti KYY clan.
I don't like that at all.
I thought that he has been very unfairly treated by your clan, of which you are the leader.

Kyy jump into Focus big time and also promotes Focus in I3.....that is his prerogative......people like to promote what they have bought and believe in, that is very natural and the purpose of i3 in the first place.

The only difference is he got a few more zeroes in his cheques.

stockmanmy

7,051 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-28 11:25 | Report Abuse

When did I ever say Kyy don't make mistakes?


That is such a silly supposition from you as leader of the anti KYY gang.

murali

5,814 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-05-28 11:27 | Report Abuse

U sure or not....we have been exposing koon koon's biz since end 2013/2014 when he first set his foot in i3......we dont really know who icon8888 was then..

murali

5,814 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-05-28 11:29 | Report Abuse

Infact we knew him when he first cari makan in ipoh giving free lunch to share his holland trips in 2013

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-28 11:30 | Report Abuse

I don't think I am anti Koon

if you check my comments, I have been pretty refrained when come to criticising him.

One of the reasons was because I considered OTB as my friend. So I try not to attack my friend's Boss

But I am leader of anti Desa aka stockmanmy PLP gang, just in case you didn't notice

popo92

567 posts

Posted by popo92 > 2016-05-28 11:31 | Report Abuse

Stockmanmy, if you happens to dive into timber logs industry in Malaysia that will be a tougher story. the fact is timber logs industry are not transparent in Malaysia, period. Yes, all commodity companies are facing the same commodity prices competition due to currency flotation these days and labour problems given by Malaysia governments. We can see focus lumber are doing work to face these problems already, efficient or not time should be given to prove. Sales volume is actually higher not only merely with better selling prices and wreaking of ringgit. We could all agree higher profit were derived from weaker ringgit thou but export companies do not rely only with forex transaction. A weaker ringgit is a bonus to them. sifus who like to track at cash in balance sheets are true investors who want companies generate true cashflow from inner side not from borrowings and huge debts. What makes focus lumber attractive is not profits prophets...

murali

5,814 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-05-28 11:32 | Report Abuse

Not really anti koon...but more on anti con.....

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-28 11:34 | Report Abuse

in that case, not really anti Desa... but more on anti PLP....

murali

5,814 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-05-28 11:36 | Report Abuse

Yeap...no personal attack pls...attack on issues....i learnt this fm kc chong...

murali

5,814 posts

Posted by murali > 2016-05-28 11:38 | Report Abuse

Kc never attack on mr.koon for once according to him,he just condemn on heavy promotion of margin to newbies...

Icon8888

19,022 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-05-28 11:44 | Report Abuse

I like the way he did it.... talk softly but whack with a big stick

paperplane2016

21,585 posts

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-29 11:50 | Report Abuse

Koon kena fined rm1mil. Too easy for him. Maybe shld sent him to jail, gantung license on all brokers, remisers who advise him. Hehe. Let him learn the lesson tht he lansi also no use. He screw up.

Posted by Lee David > 2016-05-29 11:57 | Report Abuse

Kc, can i know what is the intrinsic.value.of wtk?

paperplane2016

21,585 posts

Posted by paperplane2016 > 2016-05-29 12:33 | Report Abuse

He screw up still wanna blame mother, blame father. Real low life character like icon8888.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-05-29 13:01 | Report Abuse

Posted by Lee David > May 29, 2016 11:57 AM | Report Abuse
Kc, can i know what is the intrinsic.value.of wtk?


How I wish I am a super know-all investor and I can help you to answer your question. Sigh, I am just a small time investor who also have limited time.

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-05-29 13:07 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > May 28, 2016 11:09 AM | Report Abuse
I also know .... Super investor is one with a few more zeroes in their cheques compared to mine. A super educated writer is one with a few more alphabets after their name.
All means nothing to me.
I am here to enjoy myself.


Given a choice

1) A happy and contended "super educated writer is one with a few more alphabets after their name." who earn a honest living

2)"Super investor is one with a few more zeroes in their cheques compared to mine." who is so poor that what he has is just that


I wold have "fold my eyes and tie my hands" to choose the former. There just simply no comparison which is a better choice.

yfchong

5,272 posts

Posted by yfchong > 2016-05-29 23:03 | Report Abuse

Debt free..., cash holding ok...,..., low CAPEX..,

Posted by Henry Tan > 2016-07-02 22:11 | Report Abuse

Hi KC,
It is now trading at PE lower than 6, is it good time to accumulate?
I find it fundamentally strong, high DY, ROE, FCF, and some more is net cash position.

Posted by clarencebak > 2016-07-02 22:49 | Report Abuse

FLBhd achieved all these beautiful numbers due to d appreciation of USD last year. The latest rate has plunged to 3.99. Moreover they don't have double tax deduction anymore. These two factors alone could slash their profit to how it was before d USD appreciated in Aug 2015.

kwang2209

259 posts

Posted by kwang2209 > 2016-07-02 23:18 | Report Abuse

USD double tax deduction these all not a matter..important is after the calculation what price will make you feel worth to pay it

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-07-02 23:24 | Report Abuse

Posted by Henry Tan > Jul 2, 2016 10:11 PM | Report Abuse
Hi KC,
It is now trading at PE lower than 6, is it good time to accumulate?
I find it fundamentally strong, high DY, ROE, FCF, and some more is net cash position.

Posted by clarencebak > Jul 2, 2016 10:49 PM | Report Abuse
FLBhd achieved all these beautiful numbers due to d appreciation of USD last year. The latest rate has plunged to 3.99. Moreover they don't have double tax deduction anymore. These two factors alone could slash their profit to how it was before d USD appreciated in Aug 2015.


Macro economic thingy is hard to predict. Hence I tend to ignore this unpredictable and uncontrollable things and focus on the fundamentals.

I think the drop of Focus Lumber these days is more due to selling of certain golden rule trader.

All these shall pass.

kwang2209

259 posts

Posted by kwang2209 > 2016-07-03 00:18 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz , what's mean is certain golden rule trader?

stockraider

29,903 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2016-07-03 14:08 | Report Abuse

Raider says,
Despite what kc had says...FLumber looks attractive at Rm 1.80.
This is one of the better manage company with good cashflow and dividend and selling reasonable valuation now mah!!.

Yes some insider is selling probably to raise some cash for its requirement, but again this is best opportune time to accumulate loh..!!
Raider suggest slowly accumulate mah....don worry loh....the value is there...collect over time...u should do well..!!

Raider don see why Kc need to come up with such a negative comment on Focus Lumber when share now is such an attractive buy loh...!!
He should make this type of comment when it is Rm 3.00 mah...!!

Anyhow the positive part...this negative report is good for accumulation loh...!!

stockraider

29,903 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2016-07-03 14:09 | Report Abuse

Raider says,
Despite what kc had says...FLumber looks attractive at Rm 1.80.
This is one of the better manage company with good cashflow and dividend and selling reasonable valuation now mah!!.

Yes some insider is selling probably to raise some cash for its requirement, but again this is best opportune time to accumulate loh..!!
Raider suggest slowly accumulate mah....don worry loh....the value is there...collect over time...u should do well..!!

Raider don see why Kc need to come up with such a negative comment on Focus Lumber when share now is such an attractive buy loh...!!
He should make this type of comment when it is Rm 3.00 mah...!!

Anyhow the positive part...this negative report is good for accumulation loh...!!

MuttonCurry

1,193 posts

Posted by MuttonCurry > 2016-07-03 14:26 | Report Abuse

seems a lot of interest .. got some more downside kah ! ...

kcchongnz

6,681 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-07-03 22:37 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockraider > Jul 3, 2016 02:09 PM | Report Abuse

Raider says,
Despite what kc had says...FLumber looks attractive at Rm 1.80.
This is one of the better manage company with good cashflow and dividend and selling reasonable valuation now mah!!.

Yes some insider is selling probably to raise some cash for its requirement, but again this is best opportune time to accumulate loh..!!
Raider suggest slowly accumulate mah....don worry loh....the value is there...collect over time...u should do well..!!

Raider don see why Kc need to come up with such a negative comment on Focus Lumber when share now is such an attractive buy loh...!!
He should make this type of comment when it is Rm 3.00 mah...!!

Anyhow the positive part...this negative report is good for accumulation loh...!!


Why do you interpret that my post is negative about Focus Lumber?

m00077

427 posts

Posted by m00077 > 2016-08-21 14:59 | Report Abuse

I SHALL FOLLOW KC's ADVICE. HE IS VERY GOOD IN ANALYSIS AND VERY CLEAR, VERY DETAILS AND VERY THOROUGH.

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