we can only guess at what super investor did / is doing. we cannot be sure except..............super investor cannot be super investor without margin accounts.
Posted by stockmanmy > May 26, 2016 02:51 PM | Report Abuse we can only guess at what super investor did / is doing. we cannot be sure except..............super investor cannot be super investor without margin accounts.
Please carry on guessing, use margin to the limit, worship your super investor, or whatever.
Posted by TAH > May 25, 2016 04:50 PM | Report Abuse Mr Kcchongnz,can u please calculate for us the intrinsic value for Focus Lumber?
Posted by popo92 > May 25, 2016 05:43 PM | Report Abuse Kc, so far my fundamental philosophy on flbhd has not changed yet. Current price 2.04-2.07 already provide me enough margin of safety to sleep well. Mind sharing your price tag for peace of mind too? :)
While I do have an estimate of Focus Lumber intrinsic value, It is unwise to publish here for a few reasons.
Its share price can be volatile because of its low liquidity, coupled with substantial holding by some short-term traders, some of whom have huge margin. If the market turns bad, the fall of its price can be ugly in the short term because of margin calls, even if its intrinsic value is high, which is suitable for long term investor.
Some of them with some sort of "Golden rule" may also just dump the share without understanding or bothering what causes the drop in profit.
It is not good to invest in this share for short term due to the above reasons, though long term investing in it may be good.
Posted by shareinvestor88 > May 26, 2016 02:46 PM | Report Abuse Dear KC apart from forex gain or losses , if USD strengthens or weakens what is the impact on FLB profitability and net profit margin ?
If USD strengthen, its product will appear cheap in USD term and it may be able to sell more as most of its products go to US.
KC, i agreed and respect that its unwise for you to publish your intrinsic value for reasons. And i couldn't agree more with your concerns with low liquidity, existing of short-term traders, "believers", downside of margin calls and "golden rule" players. However, I find it hard to resist myself from this cash cow bargain. Any advises for me?
Posted by popo92 > May 27, 2016 09:36 PM | Report Abuse KC, i agreed and respect that its unwise for you to publish your intrinsic value for reasons. And i couldn't agree more with your concerns with low liquidity, existing of short-term traders, "believers", downside of margin calls and "golden rule" players. However, I find it hard to resist myself from this cash cow bargain. Any advises for me?
"Cash cow bargain"? I kind of agree with you. But note these again
"low liquidity, existing of short-term traders, "believers", downside of margin calls and "golden rule" players."
However, you don't have to play in their field. Instead, focus on the business, treat buying a stock as investing in part of a business, oh yes, for longer term.
Focus Lumber. It's a plywood and veneer factory. A smallish operation. I have posted here several times....such a company , after one or two good years will still be the same company subjected to the same limitations of raw materials, logs, labour, commodity price of its products, it's a commodity company. There would be no transformation. A closer look at this results shows that although profits exploded , there have been no volume growth......none at all. All the profit growth in the good years were a result of better prices and weaker ringgit.
Then, there are the sifus who like to look at cash in the balance sheet and calculate cash per share as if it give them margin of safety......
All I know is , is that there's lots of false prophets.
I also know .... Super investor is one with a few more zeroes in their cheques compared to mine. A super educated writer is one with a few more alphabets after their name.
Icon...I know you as the leader of the anti KYY clan. I don't like that at all. I thought that he has been very unfairly treated by your clan, of which you are the leader.
Kyy jump into Focus big time and also promotes Focus in I3.....that is his prerogative......people like to promote what they have bought and believe in, that is very natural and the purpose of i3 in the first place.
The only difference is he got a few more zeroes in his cheques.
U sure or not....we have been exposing koon koon's biz since end 2013/2014 when he first set his foot in i3......we dont really know who icon8888 was then..
Stockmanmy, if you happens to dive into timber logs industry in Malaysia that will be a tougher story. the fact is timber logs industry are not transparent in Malaysia, period. Yes, all commodity companies are facing the same commodity prices competition due to currency flotation these days and labour problems given by Malaysia governments. We can see focus lumber are doing work to face these problems already, efficient or not time should be given to prove. Sales volume is actually higher not only merely with better selling prices and wreaking of ringgit. We could all agree higher profit were derived from weaker ringgit thou but export companies do not rely only with forex transaction. A weaker ringgit is a bonus to them. sifus who like to track at cash in balance sheets are true investors who want companies generate true cashflow from inner side not from borrowings and huge debts. What makes focus lumber attractive is not profits prophets...
Koon kena fined rm1mil. Too easy for him. Maybe shld sent him to jail, gantung license on all brokers, remisers who advise him. Hehe. Let him learn the lesson tht he lansi also no use. He screw up.
Posted by Lee David > May 29, 2016 11:57 AM | Report Abuse Kc, can i know what is the intrinsic.value.of wtk?
How I wish I am a super know-all investor and I can help you to answer your question. Sigh, I am just a small time investor who also have limited time.
Posted by stockmanmy > May 28, 2016 11:09 AM | Report Abuse I also know .... Super investor is one with a few more zeroes in their cheques compared to mine. A super educated writer is one with a few more alphabets after their name. All means nothing to me. I am here to enjoy myself.
Given a choice
1) A happy and contended "super educated writer is one with a few more alphabets after their name." who earn a honest living
2)"Super investor is one with a few more zeroes in their cheques compared to mine." who is so poor that what he has is just that
I wold have "fold my eyes and tie my hands" to choose the former. There just simply no comparison which is a better choice.
Hi KC, It is now trading at PE lower than 6, is it good time to accumulate? I find it fundamentally strong, high DY, ROE, FCF, and some more is net cash position.
FLBhd achieved all these beautiful numbers due to d appreciation of USD last year. The latest rate has plunged to 3.99. Moreover they don't have double tax deduction anymore. These two factors alone could slash their profit to how it was before d USD appreciated in Aug 2015.
Posted by Henry Tan > Jul 2, 2016 10:11 PM | Report Abuse Hi KC, It is now trading at PE lower than 6, is it good time to accumulate? I find it fundamentally strong, high DY, ROE, FCF, and some more is net cash position.
Posted by clarencebak > Jul 2, 2016 10:49 PM | Report Abuse FLBhd achieved all these beautiful numbers due to d appreciation of USD last year. The latest rate has plunged to 3.99. Moreover they don't have double tax deduction anymore. These two factors alone could slash their profit to how it was before d USD appreciated in Aug 2015.
Macro economic thingy is hard to predict. Hence I tend to ignore this unpredictable and uncontrollable things and focus on the fundamentals.
I think the drop of Focus Lumber these days is more due to selling of certain golden rule trader.
Raider says, Despite what kc had says...FLumber looks attractive at Rm 1.80. This is one of the better manage company with good cashflow and dividend and selling reasonable valuation now mah!!.
Yes some insider is selling probably to raise some cash for its requirement, but again this is best opportune time to accumulate loh..!! Raider suggest slowly accumulate mah....don worry loh....the value is there...collect over time...u should do well..!!
Raider don see why Kc need to come up with such a negative comment on Focus Lumber when share now is such an attractive buy loh...!! He should make this type of comment when it is Rm 3.00 mah...!!
Anyhow the positive part...this negative report is good for accumulation loh...!!
Raider says, Despite what kc had says...FLumber looks attractive at Rm 1.80. This is one of the better manage company with good cashflow and dividend and selling reasonable valuation now mah!!.
Yes some insider is selling probably to raise some cash for its requirement, but again this is best opportune time to accumulate loh..!! Raider suggest slowly accumulate mah....don worry loh....the value is there...collect over time...u should do well..!!
Raider don see why Kc need to come up with such a negative comment on Focus Lumber when share now is such an attractive buy loh...!! He should make this type of comment when it is Rm 3.00 mah...!!
Anyhow the positive part...this negative report is good for accumulation loh...!!
Raider says, Despite what kc had says...FLumber looks attractive at Rm 1.80. This is one of the better manage company with good cashflow and dividend and selling reasonable valuation now mah!!.
Yes some insider is selling probably to raise some cash for its requirement, but again this is best opportune time to accumulate loh..!! Raider suggest slowly accumulate mah....don worry loh....the value is there...collect over time...u should do well..!!
Raider don see why Kc need to come up with such a negative comment on Focus Lumber when share now is such an attractive buy loh...!! He should make this type of comment when it is Rm 3.00 mah...!!
Anyhow the positive part...this negative report is good for accumulation loh...!!
Why do you interpret that my post is negative about Focus Lumber?
I SHALL FOLLOW KC's ADVICE. HE IS VERY GOOD IN ANALYSIS AND VERY CLEAR, VERY DETAILS AND VERY THOROUGH.
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Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-05-26 14:32 | Report Abuse
everybody thinks he is smarter , smartest.
that includes the author
scientifically proven.