6 people like this.

36 comment(s). Last comment by kcchongnz 2016-06-27 11:46

Posted by Superstock2016 > 2016-06-21 22:36 | Report Abuse

Good article! Master Chong, what is your next superstock?

Jeffbkt

124 posts

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2016-06-21 22:44 | Report Abuse

Hi KC, I have no doubt on the value investment approach with regard to invest in good FA stock with bargain or discount. However, holding a portfolio for a very long period of time may not be consistently increase the return Year on Year. Your portfolio may return 300% in 2015 but this year the portfolio return may be reduced to 200% which means this year your net return is -ve 100%. So comparing the buying price vs. the current price is not a good measurement if the same portfolio is not able to generate compounded profit Year on Year.

I do understand that in value investment, we only sell when the price is > intrinsic value but in reality not all stock will achieve the target price due to whatever reason such as we may over estimate or due to market sentiment turn bearish. So just wonder how you manage your portfolio in this case to achieve the compounded year on year profit.

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2016-06-21 22:55 | Report Abuse

Why no mention how Coastal Contract perform? Recommended at RM 3.27 today only RM 1.52 or loss of 53.5%.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/70035.jsp

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-21 23:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Jun 21, 2016 10:55 PM | Report Abuse
Why no mention how Coastal Contract perform? Recommended at RM 3.27 today only RM 1.52 or loss of 53.5%.
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/70035.jsp

Coastal is definitely one of my stock picks along the years. It did has its price dropped badly. I still have a few more which lost money. However, they were all not meant to be in the three portfolios posted.

The first two portfolios were (officially)posted way before that and it was by a third party, Tan KW. The last one was just the recent one; not supposed to be in a portfolio too, but just a summary of my write-up end of last year.

I am amazed you never follow me to buy any stock in these three portfolios which made big money. Instead you followed me blindly to buy a few, and so surprisingly, all are losing stocks.

What big sin have you committed that you were published like that?

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-21 23:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by Jeffbkt > Jun 21, 2016 10:44 PM | Report Abuse

holding a portfolio for a very long period of time may not be consistently increase the return Year on Year. Your portfolio may return 300% in 2015 but this year the portfolio return may be reduced to 200% which means this year your net return is -ve 100%. So comparing the buying price vs. the current price is not a good measurement if the same portfolio is not able to generate compounded profit Year on Year.


What makes you think as such? I do know most people reshuffling their portfolios frequently but the results were not good compared with if they just stay put with their stocks. Investing doesn't mean there must be constant actions.

BTW, the portfolios were put up to show others, may be not you, that value investing for long term works.

haikeyila

1,063 posts

Posted by haikeyila > 2016-06-22 11:16 | Report Abuse

it is always great to learn from the experiences of long term value investors, thanks.

one question I always have though is - if value investing really is what all its touted to be - how come still very, very, very few people in the world are successful with it?

It is surely not that hard to learn value investing with all the books and articles out there, the principles and calculations are generally simple, but why are not more people using it, or more importantly become successful with it?

Anybody has any theory?

stockraider

30,331 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2016-06-22 11:21 | Report Abuse

Raider says value investment is more towards contraian investment...by right if everyone embrace value investment....then likely they will not many value buys loh....!!

that's is the reason why people like kc keep touting value investment, people that heed his call is not that high mah...!!

Actually value investment adopters are minorities loh...!!

probability

14,179 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-06-22 11:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Frank Soweto

3,425 posts

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2016-06-22 11:44 | Report Abuse

HI Kc
Hope all is well. The table 1 under appendix is showing the divvy 16 portfolio instead of GE watch 13.
Thanks for another great article - as always :)

probability

14,179 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-06-22 13:49 | Report Abuse

I must also add.... that the reason for the erratic price fluctuations are because of investors calculation of the IV changes as per the recent events - qtrly results...macro..and micro business factors...and we cannot say for sure they are making a mistake in their calculations / pricing.

So...the only opportunity/edge is from the 'intelligence + knowledge level' one has over the other in accurately determining the IV.

All those historical studies from KC..perhaps indicate that people tend to overly depend on 'growth' factors affecting the IV calculation and end up predicting it more incorrectly than those who rely more on the already available cash stock, business quality historically and bought it with sufficient MOS.

So...its up to one actually...to rely more on highly speculative...high risk high gain within a short time...or a low risk reasonable gain with lots of patience...depending on their own competence.

In summary...to win...you need to play "in a game of your own competence".

stockmanmy

6,977 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-06-22 14:06 | Report Abuse

the reason for the erratic price fluctuations are because of nervousness...Comcorp style nervousness.

And such nervousness is infectious. ...the virus grows exponentially.


But growth stocks that deliver growth are the first to reach new highs on rebounds, strongest, earliest rebounds, outpacing and out beating all those boring value stocks that people falsely think gives them margin of safety.


In other words, growth stocks gives you the better gains, faster gains and less time spend in detention.




Posted by probability > Jun 22, 2016 01:49 PM | Report Abuse

I must also add.... that the reason for the erratic price fluctuations are because of

stockmanmy

6,977 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-06-22 14:11 | Report Abuse

anyone who spends their time on maths instead of time in the field smelling the environment should instead go and become Maths Professors in Ivory Towers and let the risk takers and businessmen handle your money.

probability

14,179 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-06-22 14:36 | Report Abuse

when you see emotions is taking over rational maths...that's opportunity knocking on your door.

stockmanmy

6,977 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-06-22 14:41 | Report Abuse

all the investment maths I have seen are based on assumptions which are as wrong as the most emotional girl....and they don't even know it until it is too late


Posted by probability > Jun 22, 2016 02:36 PM | Report Abuse

when you see emotions is taking over rational maths...that's opportunity knocking on your door.

probability

14,179 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-06-22 14:46 | Report Abuse

stockman agree with you....it all depends on how good is their maths...and the same way...like you said...how good is one's 'gut feeling' or 'smelling' sensitivity / accuracy...

you have to play the game of your own competence.

Guess KC 's advise would be applicable for the general young investors who has the 'time to compound' on their side.

stockmanmy

6,977 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-06-22 14:49 | Report Abuse

from young everyone tells you about the certainty of maths.

I want to tell people the uncertainty of maths when applied to investments.

probability

14,179 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-06-22 15:17 | Report Abuse

the is no question on certainty of maths...there is only an uncertainty of equations you use and the variables you had considered and the magnitude you had placed on each variable.

Some maths equations are so precise that you can predict on the dot how to strike off a plane flying across Ukraine airspace 10,000 meters away.

stockmanmy

6,977 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-06-22 15:24 | Report Abuse

probability

maths is the language of physics.

stockmarket is not physics.

probability

14,179 posts

Posted by probability > 2016-06-22 15:28 | Report Abuse

agree..'thats why opportunity exists to make money' for those who are good on their competence field. As far as I can see...having good knowledge on FA valuation (i.e IV derivation) seems to give an obvious advantage...

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-22 18:34 | Report Abuse

Posted by Frank Soweto > Jun 22, 2016 11:44 AM | Report Abuse
HI Kc
Hope all is well. The table 1 under appendix is showing the divvy 16 portfolio instead of GE watch 13.
Thanks for another great article - as always :)


Hi Frank, long time no see. Hope you are well too. Thanks for pointing out the mistake on Table 1. I have amended it.

Btw, why you always appear together with this "followblindly" fellow?

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-22 18:44 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 22, 2016 02:06 PM | Report Abuse
But growth stocks that deliver growth are the first to reach new highs on rebounds, strongest, earliest rebounds, outpacing and out beating all those boring value stocks that people falsely think gives them margin of safety.
In other words, growth stocks gives you the better gains, faster gains and less time spend in detention.


I have shown you evidence of extra-ordinary return of the super investors in value investing in my previous article below

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/98599.jsp

I have also shown you my personal experience in this article.

Why don't you show us something similar to justify your statement above?

Icon8888

18,658 posts

Posted by Icon8888 > 2016-06-22 18:53 | Report Abuse

KC I am writing another article about u

Should be out tomorrow or tonight

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-22 19:11 | Report Abuse

Posted by haikeyila > Jun 22, 2016 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

it is always great to learn from the experiences of long term value investors, thanks.
one question I always have though is - if value investing really is what all its touted to be - how come still very, very, very few people in the world are successful with it?
It is surely not that hard to learn value investing with all the books and articles out there, the principles and calculations are generally simple, but why are not more people using it, or more importantly become successful with it?
Anybody has any theory?



You may find your answer here,

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/50988.jsp

And because very few can be true value investors.

Frank Soweto

3,425 posts

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2016-06-23 05:00 | Report Abuse

All is well Kc except my portfolio LOL thanks :)
I oso dunno why I appeared at the same time as tat fella haha maybe my portfolio oso same as his/her (ie in the loss )but but I never followed blindly n oso I dun think I committed any sin let alone big ones like tat fellow did LOL - contrary to that fellow if I followed you blindly I would have made handsomely judging from the 3 tables portfolios :)

anyway, always enjoyed your articles n that of teacher (used to )but he is more TA n those CSI,MACC,candles n lighters r too complicated for me LOL hence I'm here following ( your articles )-not really blindly- since i spotted the incorrect table 1 haha but i believe tat fellow since was so unlucky to only followed Blindly on your few losing stocks keep following u now hoping that you can give back hisher roti chanai $$ by keep pestering u :) - tats my best guess LOL n u're lucky that his twin ( can't recall his id now ) did not show up as well LOL

ok better not talk too much after people will say carry your golf balls again LOL
FORE

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2016-06-23 05:07 | Report Abuse

I have yet to mention how Elsoft, BIMB-W, MRCB-W. Insas(all KC recommended) performed for past 1-2 years.

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2016-06-23 05:08 | Report Abuse

Why still no answer?

Posted by Superstock2016 > Jun 21, 2016 10:36 PM | Report Abuse
Good article! Master Chong, what is your next superstock?

Posted by donfollowblindly > 2016-06-23 05:09 | Report Abuse

Common sentence in KC blogs. If KC really can make much money he must be very rich. Why still need our fee?

If you are interested to learn about this value investing for a small fee, please contact me at
ckc14invest@gmail.com

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-06-23 05:17 | Report Abuse

To be fair, you don't need to be bothered about his portfolio performance. Because his portfolio performance is not the point in his articles. Besides, if he has 10 apples but few of them are spoiled, he still gains as long as his winners are more than his losers.

What you want is to learn how to fish from him, not for him to provide fish for you. There is no free lunch in the world, it's not a matter of whether he is rich or not. You want something, you have to give something. It's called the "the law of equivalent exchange".

Frank Soweto

3,425 posts

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2016-06-23 05:39 | Report Abuse

oh shit now Kc might think this blindly follow fella is me since he showed up right after my post - talking about getting strike by lightning :(

Frank Soweto

3,425 posts

Posted by Frank Soweto > 2016-06-23 06:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by donfollowblindly > Jun 23, 2016 05:08 AM | Report Abuse

Why still no answer?

Posted by Superstock2016 > Jun 21, 2016 10:36 PM | Report Abuse
Good article! Master Chong, what is your next superstock?

UNBELIEVABLE - still want to follow blindly after all the losses ? if u have followed kc articles non blindly u would have known that Kc mentioned many times that he does not have a crystal ball, his stock picks r based on buying below IV etc etc

@haikeyila - there - above statement why despite many FA articles out there not many are successful- why bother when u can follow blindly by asking for tips :) no wonder teacher said 90% lose money in the mart LOL

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-23 06:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ezra_Investor > Jun 23, 2016 05:17 AM | Report Abuse

To be fair, you don't need to be bothered about his portfolio performance. Because his portfolio performance is not the point in his articles. Besides, if he has 10 apples but few of them are spoiled, he still gains as long as his winners are more than his losers.

What you want is to learn how to fish from him, not for him to provide fish for you. There is no free lunch in the world, it's not a matter of whether he is rich or not. You want something, you have to give something. It's called the "the law of equivalent exchange".



Bull's eye

tehsk

14 posts

Posted by tehsk > 2016-06-23 16:15 | Report Abuse

Value investing is propagated by KC not invented by KC and this method is proven right in long run through facts, studies and researches. Thus, instead of wasting time to test your own method, why not we just humbly learn from the wise one, and KC to me is indeed the wisest one among all. "Learning, learning and learning" no matter at what ages, no matter how good you are, things change, keep learning is the only way we avoid being obsoleted

Bizfuneng

883 posts

Posted by Bizfuneng > 2016-06-23 16:53 | Report Abuse

Heard so much about value investing and IV of late, may I ask adv fm so many sifus here and KC in particular when is the right time to sell....

1) oni if the share price hitting the IV?
2)How about the share price has gone up 20% but yet to achieve the IV?
3)Wud it be better if the share price has gone up say 20% from the purchase price I sell if off and re-buy it again when it dropped back to the initiate purchase price and sell if off again when hitting 20% rather than waiting it to achieve the IV?

The sum of 20% profit from the 2 purchases may be close to the IV and my profit turn around will be faster?

stockmanmy

6,977 posts

Posted by stockmanmy > 2016-06-23 17:05 | Report Abuse

there are sifus offering TA for a fee
also sifus offering FA for a fee

too bad no sifus offering BA.

not Bachelor of Arts............Business Analysis.

too bad.

we get so many incomplete analysis

Equity Analysis stands on a tripod

But i3 produces bipod analysis.


not all

sometimes, we do get bloggers who cover all 3 legs
what I cannot stand are spreadsheets of FA without any BA.

Posted by AdrEan Thian > 2016-06-23 23:43 | Report Abuse

ive emailed you but u havnt reply me yet. i wish to learn more about value investing. Can u pls reach me at tshenming@hotmail.com

kcchongnz

6,673 posts

Posted by kcchongnz > 2016-06-27 11:46 | Report Abuse

Posted by stockmanmy > Jun 23, 2016 05:05 PM | Report Abuse
there are sifus offering TA for a fee
also sifus offering FA for a fee
too bad no sifus offering BA.
not Bachelor of Arts............Business Analysis.
too bad.
we get so many incomplete analysis
Equity Analysis stands on a tripod
But i3 produces bipod analysis.
not all
sometimes, we do get bloggers who cover all 3 legs
what I cannot stand are spreadsheets of FA without any BA.



Not sure why your BA is so great. Wish to know more what is the difference from FA.

Can't stand FA without your apa ini BA?

Why don't you start to give course on your "Tripod" then?

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