My wife and one of my closest friends told me that it is unethical to publish articles regarding the shares that I own because some readers who do not know me well would doubt my good intention. However, at my age and my financial standing I am not afraid to post this article as long as my intention is noble and altruistic. I want to teach you how to fish!
Since I wrote about Jaya Tiasa, many readers wanted to know about my other holdings. Mudajaya is my second largest holding. I also have some Xingquan, Success Transformer, Kulim, MFCB and smaller holdings of a few other counters.
As you know, many financial institutions are covering this stock and despite their frequent recommendations Mudajaya’s share price has been trading around this current level of Rm 2.70 in the last 3 or 4 years. Why should it be selling cheaper than its peers in terms of P/E ratio?
As you can see from the price chart, average price for the last few years is about Rm 2.70 and the downside risk is very small. For the share price to break out of this price range it needs a powerful catalyst which should be the announcement of its profit from its 26% share of the Independent Power Producer (IPP) concession in India. Let me give you a brief description of this project.
I was one of the original founders of Mudajaya and during my tenure, I constructed the 1st phase of the Tungku Jaffa power Station in Port Dickson about 40 years ago. Since then the company has completed 19 power plants as a construction contractor. The company specializes in power plant construction.
But in India, Mudajaya has taken a different role. Mudajaya holds 26% of a consortium to construct, own and operate 4 units of 360 Mega Watts coal fired power plant to generate electricity for sale to the Indian Government.
The total power is 4 units X 360 = 1440 mega watt. One mega watt can light up about 1,000 homes.
The estimated construction cost is about USD 4X360 MWX 1.3 million = USD 1.87 billion
The annual coal consumption is about 4,500 ton X 4X360 = 6,480,000 ton per year.
Assuming the coal price is USD 50 per ton, the annual cost of coal used = USD 324 million.
All these figures are mind boggling, hard to imagine any company has the financial ability to undertake this large concession for 25 years.
In India, a consortium of financial institutions finance the construction cost basing on the Power Purchase Agreement signed by the Indian Government. The banks must make sure that the power purchase agreement (the selling price of electricity) is profitable to Mudajaya and its partners otherwise the bank will not get back their money. The power purchase agreement is for 25 years and the power tariff will be adjusted to cover cost of coal, inflation, foreign exchange etc.
The first unit of 360 mw will be operational by end of March and the second unit will be operational by end of the 2nd quarter. By the end of the year all the 4 units will be in full operation.
The completion date has been postponed a few times until investors are fed up. As a result the share price remains depressed for so long. I believe the announcement of the additional profit spread over 25 years will be the catalyst to propel the price upward.
Today while I was writing this article, a big fund was buying aggressively to push the price up by 12 sens to close at Rm 2.80. The total volume traded was 2.972 million shares. It looks like the long delayed announcement of the additional profit from the Indian IPP concession will be out soon.
I am obliged to tell you that Mudajaya is my 2nd largest holding and I am not asking you to buy it. But if you do, I am not responsible for your losses.
About 7 years ago, CIMB research had a buy recommendation for Mudajaya because of the Indian power project as shown in the report below. Investors have waited for 7 years and all of them are tired and disappointed in waiting for the completion of the Indian power project. Finally the 1st unit of 360 mw will start firing in a few weeks and most likely all the 4 units of 360 mw will be operational by year end. How will this benefit investors?
What is this Indian power project?
About 40 years ago, when I was the CEO, Mudajaya built the 1st power plant called Tungku Jaffaar Poer Station, Port Dickson, Negri Sembilan, Malaysia. Subsequently Mudajaya completed 18 more power plants in Malaysia as a construction contractor. Mudajaya is a specialist in power plant construction.
But in India, Mudajaya holds 26% in an independent power producer (IPP) joint venture with an Indian partner to undertake the construction of 4 units of 360 mw coal power plant and the sale of electricity to the Indian Government.
Perhaps if I tell you some brief details of the Indian project, investors can imagine the difficulty of completing such a large project and forgive Mudajaya for the long delay.
The size: 4 units of 360 mw, totaling 1440 mw.
Cost: The total construction cost is about 1440 mw X US $ 1.5 million X 3.20 = RM 6,912 million.
Coal consumption: 1440 mw X 4,500 ton = 6,480,000 ton per year
Coal consumption cost at US $ 30 per ton = 6,480,000 X 30 X Rm 3.20 = Rm 622 million per year.
Power line construction cost: Rm 2 million per kilometer, total length required ??
Mudajaya holds 26% in this joint venture and its estimated profit is about Rm 70 million per year for 25 years which all investors have been waiting for.
I recall that CIMB was the under writer at Rm 1.70 for its IPO about 7 years ago and the auditors was and still is SJ Thornton of Singapore. I remember its retired senior partner a Chartered Accountant, is my cousin who is also 84 years old like myself.
You can see in its latest accounts that its NTA is Rm 1.90 per share with a lot of cash in the bank. I cannot believe the company could simply cooked the books to bluff the highly respected auditors for so many years.
I visited Xingquan’s factory in Fujian. It used all its money from the IPO to build a large factory with hostel accommodation for 2,000 workers. These assets must have appreciated many folds.
No sure whether OTB accompanied him to visit the large factory with hostel in China or not....not sure whether the Boss bring them to Kara-Oke at night or not...
"Conclusion: Investors must note that when the company CEO and substantial shareholders are buying the shares, it can only mean that the share is under-priced. "
He may be a good investor but sometimes the environment and the circulation around may not fit him. This is not about we hope him up or down, but some others may.
Reviewing the performance of the companies KYY bought. JAKS’ 1,200 MW coal fired power plant, Vietnam site visit
Koon Yew Yin 25 Nov 2017
If you look at the article on my track record in which I mentioned my purchases of Latitude, VS Industry and Lii Hen and became the 2nd largest shareholder of each company. Each of these 3 counters went up a few hundred per cent within a few years. I strongly believe JAKS will perform the same way as any of the 3 counters I mentioned above, otherwise my wife and I would not have bought 150 million JAKS shares.
@ Charles T. Nothing but pure nostalgia. Thanks for being so factual of the past. It is always pertinent to state the facts correctly so as not to cause people to become gullible, cheers.
Some newbies may not know his past records and his style and could be easily influenced by his optimism n confidence (and most importantly his social status)...
Let them c some of his history so that they could know him better and make a better decision then.
My response to comments - Koon Yew Yin Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Mon, 2 Mar 2015, 12:28 PM
Mudajaya: When I recommended Mudajaya, the company had lots of construction contracts, property development in KL and was holding 26% of 4X360 MW coal power IPP (independent power producer) in India. For some strange reasons, the Indian IPP project cost overran and the company lost money.
I am also ashamed to admit that I too have lost money.
All readers including my critics must bear in mind that both Latitude and VS have gone up in price since I posted the articles. I stated very clearly that I own a lot of these 2 stocks and if you buy you are doing it at your own risk. Moreover, I do not need you to buy to support the share prices. If you lose money, you cannot blame me and if you make money, you do not need to give me some share of your profit.
I want the stupid idiotic commentators to know that every day when VS goes up by 10 sen we are richer by 1.5 million Ringgits because my wife and I own 15 million VS shares.
The last article of him on Mudajaya I3 was on 05 July 2014. Then he admitted he sold all his Mudajaya in one of seminar held by Invetalks in Oct/ Nov 2014......
Look at some of these shares today, mudajaya @ 1.04, JTiasa @ 1.12, Xingquan @ 0.055 (suspended), etc. Please exercise caution for the newbies. Remember there is no free lunch in this world, cheers.
One thing I couldnt understand why Stockman posted this thread here inviting comments knowing that most of the comments here may not sound that sweet to the oldman.......
U jealous he brought OTB makan angin there and not you so u took revenge ah?
KLSE better suspend trading all counters for one month immediately like how China did back in 2015 >:D This panic sell can make KLCI dip from 1600 to 800 in no time.
Dear CharlesT, You really know Mr. Koon past records and postings very well. Well done. I would rather have critics like you reminding me of my past failures rather than some new friends praising me and feeding my ego least I forget that to err is human. The estimate of JAKS next Q4 profit is public knowledge as JAKS had already informed Public of the land sales. Note: Similar to Bplant, Prai land sale profit only recognize in current Q3 and management give a generous dividend of 10 cents and proposed 2 bonus shares for every 5 existing Bplant shares. I will attend the next JAKS AGM and will ask for good governance and Transparency. (A monthly or quarterly photo updates on the progress of Vietnam Power plant in JAKS website) Lastly a quote from Gandhi which says: “The root causes of conflicts and violence are wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, and politics without principle.” Have a happy trading day Thank you.
Bitcoin is flying to the moon I am surprise no one want to talk about it. Everyone is trying to ignore it. I had disappointed by it. So Investing is strictly need to satisfy the value investing?
>>>PlsGiveBonus Bitcoin is flying to the moon I am surprise no one want to talk about it. Everyone is trying to ignore it. I had disappointed by it. So Investing is strictly need to satisfy the value investing? 27/11/2017 15:06<<<
You must know the difference between investing and speculating.
If you wish to buy Bitcoin, you are not wrong, provided:
1. You understand you are speculating. You may lose a lot of money too and you can also make a lot of money too. 2. You should set aside a sum of money solely for this purpose and also be prepared to lose it all if things do not turn out well. 3. Most importantly, do not add more money to this venture if you were to find yourself in a losing or winning position. Be happy with what your initial investing amount delivers or fails to deliver.
There is no reason why you cannot indulge in Bitcoin providing your speculating is intelligent.
There's no certainty in investment except you can putting all your efforts in assessing the risk-reward considerations.
By doing so, you will certainly comfort yourself in that investment. The project is still on going and need another 2years for completion, there's certainly risk involved particularly in country like Vietnam that inherited with proven historical financial turmoil as we witnessed in 2008...
In addition, in the absence of sound legal framework and lacking of effective political reformation ....if would be unsound to adopt "sailang" approach in JAKS...
God never equip human being with perfect skill in assessing calculative risk ! it's bound to miscalculation along the over-confidence journey!
Investing, value investing, invest in a valuable company and you will expect the director to help you make money by pushing up the share price, directors are given the responsibility to feed you mouth, to feed all the investors mouths, this is what has became to the investing.
Instead of hoping director alone to help you push up the price, Bitcoin open up the possibility that everyone is responsible to push up the share price, no one own anything, the value is perceived, it do not have a director.
Now you think investing is not speculating, this is very bad idea, you are basically expect director to help you make money when director themslef can't even afford to pay dividend or even run a company, director play all the roles, this is absurd, whoever come up with value investing must be full of absurdity.
Zimbabwe could be the most valuable country in the world, it has very valuable resource, gold diamond platinum palladium, crude oil, value investor should love Zimbabwe since it is extremely undervalue, why can it become so undervalue? This is money! Money do not follow value investing, money create wealth gaps, the nation who has the smartest elite control all the wealth, it is the purpose of investing. :)
Jaks managing director, Andy is well known among fund managers for his notorious management and dishonesty. most of his land and property in selangor is acquired from previous ruling party. the latest Q result is making losses if u deduct the equity accounting on vietnam progressive project. Jaks got the vietnam PP more than 8 years ago and they fail to raise fund hence they set up a company to jv with china party. Jaks didn't get loan from china bank but getting shareholders loan from china party without disclosing the terms and condition. If the PP project is so good why jaks directors did not increase their shareholding substantially or self generate funds from the directors? furthermore Jaks has no knowledge nor management on coal PP. if u look at the financial report, there r none or maybe 1 or 2 small cap fund management holding their shares. only KYY and his wife owns more than 30% of jaks shares.my best guess is KYY friends and relative owns 15% of jaks shares. bare in mind that coal price is volatile and vietnam government wont increase electric bill overnight as it will cause havoc on household consumer and industry. Most of vietnam coal is sold to china in black market plus coal PP maintenance is high and the downtime is longer compare to other PP such as hydro PP, solar PP and other renewable energy PP. Vietnam is a very corrupted country where mudajaya oso encounter the same issue on india coal PP. I hope i m dead wrong about it and good luck on investing it.
I refer to alexyoong's above comment. Please go to my blog to read my article "Why I bought into Jaks?" After searching for 6 or 7 years, Jaks finally found the Chinese company which has been involved with about 90% of the coal-fired power plants in China to JV. The consortium of 3 National Bank, after examining the power purchase agreement carefully, they agreed to finance 75% of the total cost of Rm 7.76 billion. The selling price of the electricity depends on the price of coal, depreciation of the plant, profit for the JV company, etc. The banks must make sure that the JV company can make profit, otherwise, they cannot repay the loan.
As far as Jaks is concerned, the company has completely subcontracted the whole project to the Chinese and in return, the company will receive Rm 400 million during the power plant construction and 30% plus 10% option of the company that sells electricity to the Vietnamese Government for 25 years.
As a co-founder of Mudajaya, Gamuda and IJM Corp, I have examined hundreds of contacts before, during my 55 years experience in the contracting business, I have not seen such a juicy power purchase contract or agreement. Jaks with such a small market capitalization can own 40% of the JV company which owns the 1,200 MW power costing Rm 7.76 billion to build. Moreover, Jaks does not need to borrow money to pay for the 40% share of the JV. On top of all that, the consortium of 3 National Chinese Banks guarantees that the JV makes the profit every year for 25 years.
Thatis why my wife and I bought more than 150 million shares. Koon Yew Yin
<a href="https://www.enterprisenetworkingmag.com/"> Enterprise Networking Magazine</a> is one of the best printed networking technology magazine which features the latest technology trends used in the networking industry. It unfolds the technological advancements with the help of insights from proficient CIOs, CXOs and networking technologists.
<a href="https://www.enterprisenetworkingmag.com/"> Enterprise Networking Magazine</a> is one of the best printed networking technology magazine which features the latest technology trends used in the networking industry. It unfolds the technological advancements with the help of insights from proficient CIOs, CXOs and networking technologists.
New IPO: The onshore and offshore support services provider for the O&G industry, Steel Hawk Bhd aims to list on the Ace Market!
MQ Trader 3164 views | 3 d ago
0:17
New IPO: The largest mini-market player and a leading groceries retailer in Malaysia, 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings Bhd aims to list on the Main Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Tom
2,984 posts
Posted by Tom > 2017-11-26 22:54 | Report Abuse
我只想说...otb发福了