In my opinion from past experience, when the laggards start to wake up and do catching up, it is the end of the bull run. Our own KLCI is the most laggard share market in the whole world and now it is now moving. This may indicate the end of the global bull run.
No major war, no natural disaster, no major terror.....this 665 drop due to US interest rate hikes means US economy is very healthy......means more US funds will flow into Malaysia.....next week Bursa CNY goreng starts.
Can any old timers remember there were three 'office space rental' stocks which were the last to rally just before Daim Zainuddin press statements and Bank Negara intervention caused the 1993 FBMKLCI super bull rally come to an end.
Those were the days when we were labelled one of the 'tiger economies'. But those times are already long gone. Now the structure of KLSE is that the dominant force are the local institutions eg. EPF .... which are active daily with a small portion of retail players and foreign funds. The KLCI managed to move up due to foreign buying. But the market breadth is negative! It is not like those days prior to 1997.
In malaysia stock market,how many of those 2nd/3rd liners which were pushed aggressively still exist today? Just a handful practically most of them got delisted.Hence always be vigilant and mindful that the syndicates could be pushing those non fundamental stock to dizzling heights to distribute as much as they can as they know it possibly can't make it and would get delisted.It's ironic people will bargain hunt when a rubbish stock that was pushed came down but people won't buy a fundamental stock no matter how low or cheap it is.Hence the syndicate pushed to distribute as they can find buyers if they push.
Those days,as long as KLSE is up,you will make even if you close your eyes to buy any stock but not anymore.Nowadays,you have to be selective even index link stocks.
The theme conjured up by those foreign funds then include: "Pacific century", "tiger economies" .. which resulted in the super bull of 1993. Krugman was quoted saying SEA economies are built on quicksand. He was right. While those foreign funds were busy buying, the Japanese were busy selling. The Japanese are smart.
Structured warrants started it's maiden trading in 2005/2006.I did benefit a lot from these instruments.Those days commission 1% also easy to make money ,now have to be very selective though comm is 10% only of those days.In our stockmarket,normally second/third liners will top out when the volume surged extraordinary just like a few wks ago when volume hit 5-6 million.All these yrs,it has never changed! I wonder what sector can perform decently this yr!
ChloeTai Can any old timers remember there were three 'office space rental' stocks which were the last to rally just before Daim Zainuddin press statements and Bank Negara intervention caused the 1993 FBMKLCI super bull rally come to an end. 03/02/2018 18:33
wow ! to have such vivid recall of events back 25 yrs, ago,
were u in the stock broking business n or made your 1st millions back then ?
For those who worry about the last Friday US market big drop, here are my view and advices:
1. First you need to understand the reason of that correction, US stock markets have surged significantly after election without even a minor correction, and this kind of minor correction (weekly 3.9%) is long waited by most of the analysts. As you know healthy correction is key to fuel the longer bull run. Never in the history any bull run without any correction along the way. 2. US economy is getting stronger as expected. Job market looks promising, wages continue to go up, that will eventually result in economy expansion. Never in the history crisis happened during this kind of economy booming. 3. Someone might worry about the bonds yield, if you check the bonds history, current yield level is still very low, it's not going to cause any real impact to economy, overall borrowing cost is still low, EU and JP still in QE, we are still "very far" from monetary tightening. US inflation is not even stay at 2%, JP still struggling to achieve their inflation goal. In short, cheap money still in glut. 4. The recent drop is mainly due to repositioning. Fund managers are getting out from bond market and get into stock, commodities markets. This is very common during economy booming cycle. Check the history, any market expansion will make bonds look less attractive and strong momentum in stocks and commodities. 5. The last time Dow dropped more than 600 points (and that's 3.4%) is during Brexit in Jun 2016, and the turbulence from Brexit is much bigger than current situation. What happened next? Dow bounced back strongly the next days, the next week. And what's the real impact from that big drop? If you are panic selling during Brexit time you will missed all the strong rally after that. 6. Most importantly, ask yourself before panic selling. Do you borrow money to buy stocks? Do you expect to get margin call? If you are real value investor and having adequate holding power, there's nothing to worry about. The only thing you may concern is where to get more money to buy stocks during such a great Sales time. Look back my post in 2weeks time from now and you will understand how ridiculous people react towards market turbulence.
For Jan. 2018, local institutions/nominees are nett sellers to the tune of rm3.4 billion, while local retailers added rm0.1 billion to their holdings.
If u view smart money as the local institutions/nominees, what should local retailers be thinking about now ? Should we be buying more or taking profit ?
Even though KLCI index have been heading higher, the overall market breadth has been negative, with more shares down than up, for the past 2 weeks
Will the new week bring another round of selldown or will the Bulls come out tops ? at least in KLCI component stocks.
Posted by cheshirecat > Feb 4, 2018 01:53 PM | Report Abuse
Yes auntie aso waiting for tong sampah operasi! Auntie big cat fierce grows wilder after i hv knw calvin in i3 forum n read calvin way of investmt approach !
CALVIN KNOWS MORE THAN 80% OF THE PEOPLE ARE IN TOTAL PANIC TOMORROW!!!
BUT DON"T WORRY AT ALL
DOW GONE UP FROM 18,000 TO 26,000 POINTS IN LESS THAN 1 YEAR
THAT'S UP 44%
NOW ONLY DOWN 665 POINTS WHICH IS A MERE 2.54% DROP?
SO THE PANIC IS OVERDONE!!!
SO TOMORROW IS OUR GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO BUY ON WEAKNESS!!! 04/02/2018 14:24
Posted by cheshirecat > Feb 4, 2018 01:53 PM | Report Abuse
Yes auntie aso waiting for tong sampah operasi! Auntie big cat fierce grows wilder after i hv knw calvin in i3 forum n read calvin way of investmt approach !
CALVIN KNOWS MORE THAN 80% OF THE PEOPLE ARE IN TOTAL PANIC TOMORROW!!!
BUT DON"T WORRY AT ALL
DOW GONE UP FROM 18,000 TO 26,000 POINTS IN LESS THAN 1 YEAR
THAT'S UP 44%
NOW ONLY DOWN 665 POINTS WHICH IS A MERE 2.54% DROP?
SO THE PANIC IS OVERDONE!!!
SO TOMORROW IS OUR GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO BUY ON WEAKNESS!!! 04/02/2018 14:24
" In the other side, what will be the impact on Malaysia FBMKLCI? My opinion, Malaysia market will be benefited the most. In short, I foresee our KLCI likely to break new high in near term."
Can see tht FBMKLCI 30 component stks have done v.well in Jan.2018, with FBMKLCI up 4.8%, Sime Darby up 37.83%, Nestle up 12.06%, YTL up 14.17%, CIMB up 11.53%, n banking stks outperforming.
If, as u expect,KLCI break new high in near term, whc component stks , shd have better prospects to outperform the index ?
"Yes tomorrow 99% of the people will be in panic selling.
ONLY 1% WHO DARE TO BUY WILL BE THE WINNER.
I HOPE I AM BRAVE ENOUGH TO BUY EVEN MORE WHEN PEOPLE ARE PANIC STRICKEN IN ABJECT FEAR!!! "
Really really funny to see all the response from those sozai in share market. Yes, only 1% who dare to buy will be the winner, but not from those who rush in to buy on first day, those are the 1% who died first ... hahaha laugh die me ady !!!
Foreign fund weapon all fully loaded with bullets and canon after few weeks of buying, now just wait our clever retail investor to bring their bottle, scissor, knife, stick or whatever to rush to them. These clever investor please get ready to get sapu all sekaligus ~ haha >.<"
Actually it is a good thing for US to raise interest rate. Looking at the bad loans from banks have risen significantly, it is time to tighten lending to prevent another 2008 financial crisis due to banks' failure to collect back money.
Though the interest rate raise will stunt the economy growth a bit thus the market must pull back a bit until a certain level. A little pull back to prevent a big crash is definitely worth it.
second day of slaughtering is coming ~ teng teng teng ~ sozhai investors VS fully loaded armored foreign fund! Close the gate! release the retail investors! xD
hahaha ... he suddently found that he is holding stick to fight with those enemy with cannon and machine gun, or may ady become first batch of canon ash ~ OMG xD
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