Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-03-25 14:11 | Report Abuse

I intend to maintain 30-35% of cash reserve.

No one knows how the macro situation might pan out. But one thing for sure the risk is real, i.e. the trade war.

I would prefer to have some flexibility to position myself.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 14:13 | Report Abuse

thks. v comfortable level..

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 14:15 | Report Abuse

I think big funds can and should buy whenever they see the ikan bilis and the foreigners selling. PNB and EPF have been doing it for 30 years ....and doing it successfully....no intrinsic values needed for the exercise.

PNB, EPF and big local funds have institutionalized it so much, it is routine nowadays. Doesn't seem to have harmed them.


Problem is when ikan bilis think they have bottomless pocket like PNB.

Notice I wrote, no intrinsic values needed for the exercise but usually these exercises are strictly restricted to shares they are already familiar with and have substantial stakes.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 14:20 | Report Abuse

Big funds can make many many consecutive mistakes and they will be still around...As for ikan bilis, a few mistakes already kaput.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 15:09 | Report Abuse

Your reply is precisely why you are confused about WB. WB got to where it is because he use the same method when he is a small investor like you.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 15:23 | Report Abuse

ricky...the walllen buffalo is the richest man in the world, he is not the smartest man in the world.

study after study tells you, the smartest man in the world is not the richest and vice versa.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 15:31 | Report Abuse

I never said he is the smartest in the world, but in term of intrinsic value, I've a good accuracy as to what I need to believe. Thanks.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 15:43 | Report Abuse

@Ricky yeo

Could you elaborate the same method tht WB used when he was a small investor ? thank you


Posted by Ricky Yeo > Mar 25, 2018 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

Your reply is precisely why you are confused about WB. WB got to where it is because he use the same method when he is a small investor like you.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 16:49 | Report Abuse

So... What to believe now... Market timing is the trump card?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 16:49 | Report Abuse

Can sailang after Dow Jones tank 70%?

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 20:04 | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo @noplayball I think you are confused by WB's rule. He is risk averse not risk avoidance.

i find it very interesting that WB rule of investing No.1 n No.2 has anything to do with risk aversion versus risk avoidance.

" Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."

to me it just means even if you need to take a timeout from the market, do it, when the odds are against you and to invest would likely result in losing money in a falling market, like now.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 20:47 | Report Abuse

until you are comfortable with a big enough margin of safety to offset the perceived risk

Posted by Patron > 2018-03-25 21:08 | Report Abuse

even a pig can fly if it stands at the center of a whirlwind. just follow the trend until it bends. it works everytime for me.

Posted by Patron > 2018-03-25 21:09 | Report Abuse

things get much easier if one jumps on the bandwagon of existing trend. be fearful when others are fearful , be greedy when others are greedy

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 02:48 | Report Abuse

Patron > Mar 25, 2018 09:08 PM | Report Abuse

even a pig can fly if it stands at the center of a whirlwind. just follow the trend until it bends. it works everytime for me.
==========================================

works fine in theory but eventually enough mistakes to make it not viable.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 02:49 | Report Abuse

patron....eventually u still need this

Failure or success depends on your ability to make forecast of trading range and time frame , forecast of events and results , forecast of risk factors and your ability to assume certain risks and proven right later.....That is the sweetest of success...It ain't got nothing to do with intrinsic values or with holding power.

on the question of timing......Purebull posted buy when RSI just cross above 56......I think worth trying out.

me.....in most conditions, I fine I make most money when I buy "cheap"...but a strong bear, nothing works......hahahaha

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-26 04:13 | Report Abuse

You equate volatility as risky, that's why you got confused in the first place. Volatility is never a risk, unless you are trading.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 05:07 | Report Abuse

I like volatility, I like speculating and I like trading. I just don't like people who offer their services and that include Fred Tham and kind.

I have an instant dislike for such people.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 05:11 | Report Abuse

Great traders trade on their own account. Just like me. No one to report to and responsible for no one.

And that is the way I like it and should be.

People who have to have customers, I find that distasteful.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 05:36 | Report Abuse

people who can make money from the stock market got to sell their services to cari makan and suffer all the consequences is a contradiction that don't make sense.

they tell you them found the key to make money, but deep down they don't believe it and need their customers to cari makan.

Posted by curious2 > 2018-03-26 05:40 | Report Abuse

Customer cari makan is sure money for OTB and KC. You don't see KYY do it why? They focus more their own shares than advising others.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 05:51 | Report Abuse

to kyy, 1 is 1
2 is 2...even if he makes mistakes......doesn't matter.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 05:54 | Report Abuse

people who habitually make money has more to do with his habits than with intrinsic value or to holding power.


or maybe it is Fooled by Randomness....who knows?

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 06:37 | Report Abuse

OMG.... this is why traders 95% of them will blow themselves up eventually. U buy something without caring for the value. Everyone think about riding the trend.

Exactly like buying up bitcoin to usd20k hoping that there is another few great fools buying more than them.

My advise is buy only if u like the business. And once bought, keep them in the fridge. The basis of INVESTMENT is ownership of a company. And OWNERSHIP requires u to know not only INTRINSIC VALUE but POTENTIAL GROWTH.

Stop talking about investing when u aim to ride the wind and trade. Be honest. U r not investing. U r trading. So be it... trade and do your trade. But do not insult the intellect of those people who INVEST.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-26 06:49 | Report Abuse

@happy88 Happily invested in Hengyuan ah ??

btw, where you puck the 95% figure ah ? you are very pro ..

good luck to you , happily invested in HY business, because you very trusting China-owned company is world class mgmt,even though only se tahun jagung, while the record shows most China-owned company listed in BURSA, P&L only in ruins over time.

Posted by happy888 > Mar 26, 2018 06:37 AM | Report Abuse

OMG.... this is why traders 95% of them will blow themselves up eventually

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 06:53 | Report Abuse

NoPlayBall > Mar 26, 2018 06:36 AM | Report Abuse

are you a lecturer ? because you are very lost in semantics
=============

fierce lecture. This ricky is also an intellectual...but noplay seems more realistic....

even universities ...when they teach risk, they also use volatility as a proxy for risks......

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 06:55 | Report Abuse

happy...don't insult my fellow traders/ speculators.....

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/151380.jsp

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 07:12 | Report Abuse

noplay

ricky is quoting from the popular investment books found in book shops and from value investing sifus.....they don't mind being frozen soldiers.

me.....I find the whole idea of mixing value investing with small and mid caps rather incompatible.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-26 07:27 | Report Abuse

@qqq3 voice of seasoned practitioner...

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 08:32 | Report Abuse

NoplayBall... i pluck from sky?

Nah... take this and read lah

3Barber, & Odean (2000): Trading is hazardous to your wealth: The common stock investment performance of individual investors
– 4 Kumar: Who Gambles In The Stock Market?
– 5 Barber, Odean (2001): Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment
– 6Calvet, L. E., Campbell, J., & Sodini P. (2009). Fight or flight? Portfolio rebalancing by individual investors.
–7Barber, B. M., Lee, Y., Liu, Y., & Odean, T. (2009). Just how much do individual investors lose by trading?
– 8Gao, X., & Lin, T. (2011). Do individual investors trade stocks as gambling? Evidence from repeated natural experiments
– 9Strahilevitz, M., Odean, T., & Barber, B. (2011). Once burned, twice shy: How naïve learning, counterfactuals, and regret affect the repurchase of stocks previously sol.
– 10Da, Z., Engelberg, J., & Gao, P. (2011). In search of attention
– 11De, S., Gondhi, N. R. & Pochiraju, B. (2010). Does sign matter more than size? An investigation into the source of investor overconfidence

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 08:35 | Report Abuse

Yes.. i am holding HY. At Rm19 i dont sell HY. Why do i need to sell it now. Money i put inside is money i expect to be inside there for the next 2 to 5 years. Too bad i seriously have holding power.

Banish the word intrinsic value and holding power? Only fools do that. Might as well u go contra and margin all the C warrants.

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 08:41 | Report Abuse

NoPlayBall... u say Bursa confirm downtrend. I am not a technical analysis person. Tell me what is the definition of downtrend?

Bursa in downtrend? U must be a joke. Any analyst will tell u surprising bursa is in an intact uptrend.

qqq3... i dun think i am insulting your fellow traders. I think u r insulting fellow investors. Perhaps your article is gunned towards traders audience. If yes i rest my case then.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 08:44 | Report Abuse

happy

people also talk east, go west
what people say vs what people do

academic work vs real work

what is the difference between investing and speculating/ trading?
both activities are most profitable when companies do well.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 08:54 | Report Abuse

happy888 Yes.. i am holding HY. At Rm19 i dont sell HY. Why do i need to sell it now.
=======================================

aiyoyo...got chance to sell HY at $ 19 and didn't ...then you should change the way you look at the whole issue of investing........

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-26 09:01 | Report Abuse

@happy888
Important is your stks make money or not,
KLCI maybe uptrend confirm, are you invested in klci stks ah ?
Overall more stks new low than high maa

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-26 09:06 | Report Abuse

@noplayball - like I said, it comes down to your strategy. What I said doesn't suits anyone.

Let's break this down. What is a 'confirm' market downtrend? Can you see one coming? 2014 there was a brief so-called Bursa downtrend, if you sell in 2014 and wait for so-called uptrend, can you catch the market timing perfectly? Not many can. So I rather not play that game.

You are right, blind faith and hope is dangerous. But all stocks have risks. The risk is already there before you even enter the market. The risk is there even when you exit the market. Changing your action changes the risk itself. Do you really think 100% cash is risk free? There is risk too. Risk is not what happened to the market; it is how you respond to it that create risk.

So it is best you do your own research if you are looking for 7% yield. I can recommend you Lafarge, but you would think I'm insane.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-26 09:09 | Report Abuse

@Ricky Yeo thanks

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-26 09:10 | Report Abuse

If you can see a 'confirmed' downtrend, you should be able to see it end of last year before everything happens, rewind your memory, did you see one? If you didn't, how do you confirm now is a downtrend or more precisely, how big is it going to be? In Ubiquity, Mark Buchanan wrote the stock market follows the power law. Like a sand pile effect, there's no way to telling which grain can create a collapse and no one can know how big the effect can be. Same as stock market. It is always under a critical state. IF you think you can call a up or downtrend so easily, then that is no different from 'confidently with blind faith' either.

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 09:15 | Report Abuse

Noplayball... that is the difference between u and me. I look long. Really really long. Have a longer vision and see the business model. Why care about the stock price. Anyone can say RM19 is the highest HY will achieve. Nanti at RM21 you will say chase and hentam HY.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-26 09:19 | Report Abuse

Wish you success in your stks, am here to learn, share n hopefully win, no joy to hentam any stks, thnks

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 12:41 | Report Abuse

happy

what is the validity of ikan bilis behaving like PNB and Wallen Buffalo is the other main point of the write up......

PNB and Wallen Buffalo can make many mistakes and still stand up

ikan bilis, a few mistakes kaput already

me...if this year my return is only 10%, I consider a great failure...for PNB if their return is 10% they consider it a great success.

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 12:53 | Report Abuse

qqq3... the key word is consistency. Consistency is the only way to survive over next 20 to 30 years.
What for you want to become like jesse livermore win a few million (1900's) and lose them back.
If every year my return average 10 to 15% i am damn happy. Investment is a different game from trading. Rarely i heard people go bust from investment. Trading + margin call becoming bust, I have seen quite a number.

So it is ultimately your choice. Your choice for a high risk appetite game or conservative ones all lies on you. NEVER banish the word HOLDING POWER & VALUE from investor.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 13:43 | Report Abuse

consistency....so what is consistency?

actually maximum consistency is 100% cash.....

maximum inconsistencies is stay fully invested at all times.

or you believe in KC and soft cover investing books about compounding from stock market? that is both a dream and an unrealistic assumption.

where got compounding one? shares go up and down.

in fact, because I am a trader / speculator ....my portfolio is very consistency one. How? by targeting almost immediate return each time I transfer from cash to shares...if not, it stays in cash.....total portfolio (cash and shares), very consistent one.

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-03-26 15:00 | Report Abuse

guys, Robert Shiller just warned of potential crisis from trade war.

I dont really pay attention to economists much, but with Shiller i ought to pay attention.

Plus Howard Marks also warned last year and early of the year in his memo write up.

no harm being cautious. protect your capital is most important.

Posted by happy888 > 2018-03-26 17:54 | Report Abuse

qqq3... if u think u r the top 5% trader then good. Continue what u r doing. Dun stop it.

But again i repeat. Never banish the word holding power and value from investor. Dun believe in compounding... go and look at boeing stock in nyse. With the dividend and everything, it is more than consistent income

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-31 06:38 | Report Abuse

another way of writing the same ideas

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/purebull/152159.jsp

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-31 06:42 | Report Abuse

happy...the finer points...read the whole article.

every thing in life is about balance...and dangers of extremism.


for 90% of the people here, the words intrinsic value and holding is your death .....

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-31 06:47 | Report Abuse

happy
Intrinsic values may have some relevance in big caps and in companies with 100 years history traded in NYSE....but 90% of you here are not into big caps...you guys are into small and mid caps.

wrong kungfu apps

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-11 23:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-07-17 15:09 | Report Abuse

there is no intrinsic value other than what the buyers are willing to pay.