Posted by pussycats > 2018-03-25 06:47 | Report Abuse

qqq3, then u buy base on WHAT PRINCIPLES???




>>>qqq3 >>>>>You must banish the words intrinsic value and holding power from your dictionary.<<<

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 06:54 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/qqq3/151380.jsp

Posted by PureBULL . > 2018-03-25 06:55 | Report Abuse

Dear qqq3,
I love your name.
U n many i3 members can be master of these 3X NASDAQ index derivatives;

TQQQ 3X bull on Nasdaq index
SQQQ 3X bear

No expiry date n no margin call n best is no tedious stock selection skill is required.
Purely directional play to long or to short. v good fun if u r at RIGHT timing.
Mkt is 50/50 n to be right u just need to know the odd to the xtra 1% more on the right side n u win BIG.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 06:56 | Report Abuse

pussy

Failure or success depends on your ability to make forecast of trading range and time frame , forecast of events and results , forecast of risk factors and your ability to assume certain risks and proven right later.....That is the sweetest of success...It ain't got nothing to do with intrinsic values or with holding power.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 06:57 | Report Abuse

While I agree intrinsic value is a vague word, and sometimes carry different meanings to different investors due to misconception, but nonetheless it is a measurement - to know what a business should worth for a willing buyer and willing seller. And how that is measured is by estimating the future cash flow that can be generated by the business.

Whether you are talking about intrinsic value or trading, everything is obviously in the eye of the beholder. But a good investor doesn't determine IV from his own point of view, he synthesize by incorporating all supportive and contradictory information to derive a valuation that he hope is closest to the objective truth. In other words, seeing things from multiple lenses. Share price of course gyrate more than IV, but that doesn't invalidate the use of IV. It is precisely the gyration of the market that a long-term investor should know the value of a business without being swept away by nonsense.

Using NTA/NAV, first, is just an anchor to where IV could possibly be, it is a start not the end, second, it is a heuristic some investors may rely too much upon and create misconception (think PE), it has nothing to do with the reliability of IV itself. Correlation doesn't mean causation.

IV has relevance to all caps and all kind of cash flow generating assets outside the realm of stock market. Property, there is IV; Mona Lisa painting, there isn't. P&L that has no stability doesn't mean there isn't any IV, it just means the IV range will be huge since there are many possible outcomes.

And I don't disagree with you, that IV itself requires a time frame to judge the accuracy of one's forecast as well. But instead of using market price which is unreliable, one should make forecast based on business key drivers.

No one should 100% trust their IV, it is not something that you set in stone, but rather constantly require adjustment as more information comes in. Think in term of degree of confidence.

Holding power is a measurement of risk. Everyone exact definition might differ, some refer it to the psychological aspect of holding it under stress. But to me, it means not being forced to sell under adverse condition. Investor can be forced to sell under condition such as margin lending, lifestyle obligation etc. Those are risks. Risk begins way before you buy a stock.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 07:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 07:22 | Report Abuse

and yes holding power...is not about money in the account only.....primarily it is about the psychological aspect of holding it under stress. ......so much emphasis on holding power only mislead people to think if only they can withstand some pain, they will make it.......wrong way to go about doing things.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 07:28 | Report Abuse

people cultivate a lot of bad habits from books, from sifus, from testimonies of people who want to sell books and sell subscriptions........

the only way to improve is experience and use the brains.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 07:35 | Report Abuse

Well I can't talk for them. They have their own way of doing things, no right or wrong, but investors learning 2nd level thinking is the only way to go.

This is the misconception of IV. IV is not a precise number. While many does put it in the form of exact dollar and cents, it should be a range. Why should it be a range? Because we are forecasting, we are dealing with uncertain future; we are dealing with luck and so on. The bigger the range of possible outcome of a company, in this case, young company or startup, the bigger the range of IV should be. That doesn't mean IV is useless. It is just reality.

If you ask me to guess the age of a stranger and to me, he looks like in his 40s, I can say im fairly certain (90%) he is within 40-49 years old. I cannot be precisely because I can be wrong, but that doesn't make my estimation invalid.

Similarly, if you ask me to guess the age of a giraffe, I would be fairly certain (90%) the giraffe is between 1-100 years old. I need that big range to be 90% certain because I know nothing about giraffe. IF I were to guess the giraffe to be 10-20 years old, my confidence will be below 10%, because I'll be wrong most of the time.

Same thing with stocks. The more stable the company is, based on the nature of business, industry dynamic, operation etc; the more you know about the company, the range of IV will be small. In contrast, a stock you are not familiar with, that is young will no track record, operating in a competitive industry, will need a very wide range of IV to accommodate the uncertainty of its nature. That's just how it should be.

IV shouldn't be used as an tool to fool ourselves by being ignorant, it is a tool that says "I know I can be wrong, that's why there it is a range, and that's my confidence interval'

Posted by Flintstones > 2018-03-25 07:38 | Report Abuse

This is true. Just look at kc chong method of determining intrinsic value. He is just another cp teh. Using historical numbers, extrapolate and poof comes the kc chong intrinsic value. I am really awed by the naivety of his analysis. Of course he will post a table of his successful stock pics from 2013. But remember, a rising tide lifts all boats. The last two years he had not made any successful calls. The most recent pick was favco which did not go anywhere.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 07:40 | Report Abuse

You are right, the ability to withstand pain is only half true, first the investor has to get his assessment of the stock correct. Same as stop loss for traders. If your strategy is unsound, no amount of stop loss will save you because you'll just keep getting yourself into unwise decisions. But when everything is done right, holding power matters a lot.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 08:14 | Report Abuse

stone...takes a long time to convince people. kc can write well but write well does not mean can make money

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 08:17 | Report Abuse

as long as people so obsessed with intrinsic value and holding power......there can be no meaningful discussion of the true nature of the stock market which is volatility , uncertainties and what to do with these.

intrinsic value my foot...it is just some imaginary numbers.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 08:27 | Report Abuse

Well you have the right to disagree what you don't believe, just as no one will always agree with you. Take volatility, I don't care one bit of it.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 08:49 | Report Abuse

Okok... No more intrinsic value and holding power. Tq qqq3 sifu

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 08:50 | Report Abuse

Then buy using what yardstick?

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 08:51 | Report Abuse

alex....same answer I gave pusy


Failure or success depends on your ability to make forecast of trading range and time frame , forecast of events and results , forecast of risk factors and your ability to assume certain risks and proven right later.....That is the sweetest of success...It ain't got nothing to do with intrinsic values or with holding power.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 08:56 | Report Abuse

So sad these few months... Buy what drop what... Looks like I dun have what it takes to forecast. Better put in FD.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 09:00 | Report Abuse

alex...smart

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 09:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 09:34 | Report Abuse

So the advice is time the market, good luck

Posted by Jeffbkt > 2018-03-25 09:43 | Report Abuse

This is just another example of 馬後砲. You should have post this when the share price was on the way up not now.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 09:43 | Report Abuse

d by Ricky Yeo > Mar 25, 2018 09:34 AM | Report Abuse

So the advice is time the market, good luck
========================================================

yes and no.

yes timing is very important for 90% of the retailers.....and no, if you are a substantial shareholder or an institution willing to hold for at least 3 - 5 years to see your predictions come true.

It generally takes at least 3 to 5 years to see results from corporate strategies and corporate changes.


Fundamental to success and failure is still this....



Failure or success depends on your ability to make forecast of trading range and time frame , forecast of events and results , forecast of risk factors and your ability to assume certain risks and proven right later.....That is the sweetest of success...It ain't got nothing to do with intrinsic values or with holding power.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 09:48 | Report Abuse

jeff...there is nothing 馬後砲 about what is written.....It is a fundamental feature of stock markets ever since the beginning.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-03-25 10:50 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 11:12 | Report Abuse

A point to note is tht small investors cannot afford to think like the big fund mgrs who wrote these wonderful bks on fundamental investing, bcause small investors have limited funds n timeframe to make money, unlike the well funded unit trust mgrs, who have money coming in every mth, to invest.
If a big storm is coming, like now, better to follow WB first n second rule of investing, n keep high cash allocation, to survive n find values aftr the storm.
Those who still see value in their favourite stks, still in bullish market frame of mind from yesteryear, not in 2018.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 11:15 | Report Abuse

Its not market timing as such, its plain common sense to run and survive to fight another day, only someone who has not gone thru crash market will act like a hero, values everywhere but price is falling, why ??

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 11:37 | Report Abuse

calvin

you are supposed to know what is in those boxes...but it is how you handle uncertainties that determines winners and losers.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 11:40 | Report Abuse

NoPlayBall > Mar 25, 2018 11:12 AM | Report Abuse

A point to note is tht small investors cannot afford to think like the big fund mgrs who wrote these wonderful bks on fundamental investing, bcause small investors have limited funds n timeframe to make money, unlike the well funded unit trust mgrs, who have money coming in every mth, to invest.
If a big storm is coming, like now, better to follow WB first n second rule of investing, n keep high cash allocation, to survive n find values aftr the storm.
Those who still see value in their favourite stks, still in bullish market frame of mind from yesteryear, not in 2018.
==========================================

I cannot put it better...problem is ikan bilis think they are PNB.....

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 11:42 | Report Abuse

@noplayball I think you are confused by WB's rule. He is risk averse not risk avoidance.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-03-25 11:43 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 12:53 | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo @noplayball I think you are confused by WB's rule. He is risk averse not risk avoidance.
25/03/2018 11:42

hahaha..maybe you are right, we cannot follow WB 100% if we dont have his deep deep pocket like US 100 billion ready cash which is 40% of his stock investment profolio, on standyby.

Better to avoid risk we cant withstand and not lose money, then got chance to win when storm has blown over

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-03-25 13:57 | Report Abuse

always buy when you see value in relative to share price. market timing is an impossible game but not saying you should completely avoid it, you can always strategize by conserving some capital to advantage of the market situation.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 13:59 | Report Abuse

@Fabien Extraordinaire

Just curious, what %cash left in your stk porfolio to buy ? thks

Posted by Fabien Extraordinaire > 2018-03-25 14:11 | Report Abuse

I intend to maintain 30-35% of cash reserve.

No one knows how the macro situation might pan out. But one thing for sure the risk is real, i.e. the trade war.

I would prefer to have some flexibility to position myself.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 14:13 | Report Abuse

thks. v comfortable level..

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 14:15 | Report Abuse

I think big funds can and should buy whenever they see the ikan bilis and the foreigners selling. PNB and EPF have been doing it for 30 years ....and doing it successfully....no intrinsic values needed for the exercise.

PNB, EPF and big local funds have institutionalized it so much, it is routine nowadays. Doesn't seem to have harmed them.


Problem is when ikan bilis think they have bottomless pocket like PNB.

Notice I wrote, no intrinsic values needed for the exercise but usually these exercises are strictly restricted to shares they are already familiar with and have substantial stakes.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 14:20 | Report Abuse

Big funds can make many many consecutive mistakes and they will be still around...As for ikan bilis, a few mistakes already kaput.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 15:09 | Report Abuse

Your reply is precisely why you are confused about WB. WB got to where it is because he use the same method when he is a small investor like you.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-25 15:23 | Report Abuse

ricky...the walllen buffalo is the richest man in the world, he is not the smartest man in the world.

study after study tells you, the smartest man in the world is not the richest and vice versa.

Posted by Ricky Yeo > 2018-03-25 15:31 | Report Abuse

I never said he is the smartest in the world, but in term of intrinsic value, I've a good accuracy as to what I need to believe. Thanks.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 15:43 | Report Abuse

@Ricky yeo

Could you elaborate the same method tht WB used when he was a small investor ? thank you


Posted by Ricky Yeo > Mar 25, 2018 03:09 PM | Report Abuse

Your reply is precisely why you are confused about WB. WB got to where it is because he use the same method when he is a small investor like you.

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 16:49 | Report Abuse

So... What to believe now... Market timing is the trump card?

Posted by Alex™ > 2018-03-25 16:49 | Report Abuse

Can sailang after Dow Jones tank 70%?

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 20:04 | Report Abuse

Ricky Yeo @noplayball I think you are confused by WB's rule. He is risk averse not risk avoidance.

i find it very interesting that WB rule of investing No.1 n No.2 has anything to do with risk aversion versus risk avoidance.

" Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1."

to me it just means even if you need to take a timeout from the market, do it, when the odds are against you and to invest would likely result in losing money in a falling market, like now.

Posted by NoPlayBall > 2018-03-25 20:47 | Report Abuse

until you are comfortable with a big enough margin of safety to offset the perceived risk

Posted by Patron > 2018-03-25 21:08 | Report Abuse

even a pig can fly if it stands at the center of a whirlwind. just follow the trend until it bends. it works everytime for me.

Posted by Patron > 2018-03-25 21:09 | Report Abuse

things get much easier if one jumps on the bandwagon of existing trend. be fearful when others are fearful , be greedy when others are greedy

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 02:48 | Report Abuse

Patron > Mar 25, 2018 09:08 PM | Report Abuse

even a pig can fly if it stands at the center of a whirlwind. just follow the trend until it bends. it works everytime for me.
==========================================

works fine in theory but eventually enough mistakes to make it not viable.

Posted by qqq3 > 2018-03-26 02:49 | Report Abuse

patron....eventually u still need this

Failure or success depends on your ability to make forecast of trading range and time frame , forecast of events and results , forecast of risk factors and your ability to assume certain risks and proven right later.....That is the sweetest of success...It ain't got nothing to do with intrinsic values or with holding power.

on the question of timing......Purebull posted buy when RSI just cross above 56......I think worth trying out.

me.....in most conditions, I fine I make most money when I buy "cheap"...but a strong bear, nothing works......hahahaha