Posted by Dericlock > 2018-07-25 12:22 | Report Abuse

Great article, really in depth analysis to hibiscus and its' potential earning.

Something to highlight is oil from north sabah is traded at a premium price than brent.

Posted by teoct > 2018-07-25 13:21 | Report Abuse

Dericlock, thank you.

Good to know that NSabah oil trade at a premium, so estimate is more conservative. Always good to err on the lower side.

Posted by JayC > 2018-07-25 14:34 | Report Abuse

nice article.

however, must also include warrant conversion that will dilute EPS by 20%

Posted by teoct > 2018-07-25 15:22 | Report Abuse

JayC, thank you. Indeed you are right, I overlook this.

Posted by ganapathy18 > 2018-07-26 09:57 | Report Abuse

A very good article with fair assumptions. Hope reality does not deviate much.

Posted by Kymkym > 2018-07-27 09:29 | Report Abuse

Good article.......felt stronger... Buy more

Posted by paperplane > 2018-07-27 15:41 | Report Abuse

will the production really double according to most forecast....

Posted by VenFx > 2018-07-27 18:26 | Report Abuse

As long Hibiscus doesnt explore for the Australia rig ... Bunga Raya is the counter to long like Air asia .

Posted by Koon Bee > 2018-08-15 21:36 | Report Abuse

Today bought a few lorries. Loaded

Posted by bukithot > 2018-08-15 22:58 | Report Abuse

Hi teoct, very good article. TO clarify, Hibiscus only owns 50% of Sabah oil production right?

Posted by Cockroach Paul Lee > 2018-08-15 23:07 | Report Abuse

support...very good article. TQ TeoCT

Posted by teoct > 2018-08-16 09:51 | Report Abuse

Fellow Investors, many thanks for the kind words. @bukithot, yes Hibisbcus owns 50% of Sabah PSC, the other 50% is owned by Petronas Carigali.

Hibiscus can be seen as a hedge against depreciating ringgit (emerging markets currencies). To a certain extend, the share price now has an arbitrage against the ringgit. That is, rightly, the share price should have appreciated as in ringgit term, the revenue would have appreciated by 1.29% (The Edge Financial Daily today). Yes, when ringgit appreciate, revenue (in ringgit terms) will be lower.

@Paperplane, yes the production of Hibiscus will go from about 2,800 bpd to 8,300 bpd give and take. North Sabah alone is already about 5,500 bpd. It not only double, almost triple. Of course, there are many production related issues, compressors not working, leaking valves, spurious instruments, etc etc, so production may come in lower than 8,300 bpd. Hibiscus is now (since 31/3/18) running North Sabah, 50% production (of course less cost oil, royalty, etc) therefore accrued to Hibiscus - see table provided in 3rd quarter of Hibiscus and reproduced in this write up.

@VenFx - yes, this is an area I am not able to get a handle on. That is why in my write-up I only concentrated on (actual/predictable) oil production. Any development / exploration (cost) will definitely affect the bottom line.

Many thanks again and have a happy weekend.

Posted by paperplane > 2018-08-24 09:49 | Report Abuse

teo, with latest news....I think you can do some fantastic calculation now

Posted by teoct > 2018-08-24 13:57 | Report Abuse

@paperplane, thank you for your support and kind word. I will wait for the final quarter and then I will review my model, this may take a while as I am also looking at other things.

Posted by BenPg > 2018-09-02 18:25 | Report Abuse

Any reason why Hibiscus fell 14 Sen before Merdeka ? Why the panick selling?