Trump trade war is the major reason and also one of the many reasons. I only know that Long term foreign investor is selling like no tomorrow. Local institution has no choice but to let the index drop slowly. US is now betting that Fed is going to cut rate this year. Treasuries yield is so much lower. US usually cut rate during economic downturn..
It would not crash to 1300-1400 level. Not in the near term, at least. There will be support as some are happily gobbling up shares. Trump's actions and policies seem to be good to the US market, so Wall Street will not fall.
As long as Wall Street remains intact, Malaysia, like any other market is still safe. Recovery is possible in the short term. Unless, of course, President Xi declares an all out trade war against Trump.
There is no such thing as impossible in share market, particularly when the bursa index bias towards the blue chip companies which is the most expensive as against its peers in SEA in terms of market valuation and future earning growth!
As an open economy, we rely heavily on international trading, both the import and export activities. Hence, we are very vulnerable to the decade long international recession which is around the corner. The counter measure stimulus is rsther limited via the internal pump priming due to sky high of sovereignty debt and domestic household debt.
I think the chance of bursa hitting 1300 is very possible in 2019. I even think bursa will hit around 800 point in second half of 2020.
Hence, it is essential to rebalance your portfolio expoure according to your risk tolerance. As for me, i mantain my exposure to 50:50 and will reduce to 30% exposure to equity anytime from now!
The recent weak economy indicators have been felt in Korea, Taiwan and Singapore. I think it's just the beginning of the negative growth cycle...
Usually it will take 6-8 quaters to hit the bottom... Hence, i strongly believe the visibility of downturn is more cleaer in early 2020 and will hit the worse scenario in 2nd half of 2020.
Get ready for the hard landing of recession that's driven not by trade war but by the very fact of over valuation of asset price in US.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
laychee
1,743 posts
Posted by laychee > 2019-05-25 19:49 | Report Abuse
It's in the mouth of Trump. He make the call.