Posted by speakup > 2019-09-25 16:49 | Report Abuse

Jaks CEO Ang farked super investor Koon
Koon thought he can make easy money from Ang, but Ang got the better of Koon

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-09-25 19:05 | Report Abuse

Just curious.

Do you have to make annual loan repayment and interest that comes with it?

Are you looking at profit, or cash flows, or a combination of it?

Which is the relevant figure, profit or cash flows?

What is the eventual total number of Jaks shares outstanding?

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-09-25 19:51 | Report Abuse

of course bankers and project promoters have taken into account loan repayments and contingencies .........

I have no idea why people who call themselves internet sifus assume bankers and project investors are idiots.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-09-25 20:07 | Report Abuse

I have no idea why people who call themselves internet sifus assume bankers and project investors are idiots.

In i3investor, I can only read one internet "sifut" called himself "pro(stitute)" in day trading.

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-09-25 20:12 | Report Abuse

kc...don't ask me stupid questions.....want to buy, buy...don't want to buy, get lost.....I noticed Ang is buying some recently .......

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-09-25 20:19 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 25, 2019 8:12 PM | Report Abuse
kc...don't ask me stupid questions.....want to buy, buy...don't want to buy, get lost.....I noticed Ang is buying some recently .......


My post was directed to the writer of this blog, of whom I respect because he got substance, and I would learn a lot from him and make my own decision to buy Jaks or not.

Obviously, it was not directed to a trading pro(stitute), or a hapa dog who the only thing he knew was shouting sailang and margin to get novice and newbies to buy Jaks when it was trading at RM1.80, and proudly claimed he profited again and again from it, but knows nothing at all about investing

Posted by qqq3 > 2019-09-25 20:41 | Report Abuse

kc....sure or not u know what is profitable investing? not dead share investing which you are famous for...............

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-09-25 20:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by qqq3 > Sep 25, 2019 8:41 PM | Report Abuse
kc....sure or not u know what is profitable investing? not dead share investing which you are famous for...............

So which "dead share" you are referring to?

How have they compared to Jaks and Sendai being shouted margin and sailang for the last three years?

Oh by the way, still holding your London Biscuits bought at 16 sen a couple of weeks ago?

Oh, you forgot to post that you have sold and cut win them at 17 sen which you are doing all the time?

Or still waiting to see how the share price going to move in another week, and if go up to 30 sen, will say you have sailang again at 10 sen; and if have gone down to 5 sen, will say you have sold at 20 sen on 25th September as usual?

Posted by valuelurker > 2019-09-25 20:57 | Report Abuse

Lol cashflows and profits are not the same la donkey66

As I have repeatedly mentioned: -

RM80-100mil profit per annum

In a year you will find out

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-25 21:42 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz,

The payback period refers to the amount of time it takes to recover the cost of investment. That is when the investor gets the entire invested capital including borrowings back in CASH.

So, it is the NET cash flow after loan interest but before loan repayment, if any, to be used in calculating the payback period.

To derive the accounting profit, you have to deduct the non-cash expenses. The biggest item is depreciation. The minor accrued expenses are ignored.

There is 102m outstanding warrants. A 15.8% dilution when the warrants are exercised.


--------------------------
kcchongnz Just curious.

Do you have to make annual loan repayment and interest that comes with it?

Are you looking at profit, or cash flows, or a combination of it?

Which is the relevant figure, profit or cash flows?

What is the eventual total number of Jaks shares outstanding?
25/09/2019 7:05 PM

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-09-25 22:08 | Report Abuse

DK66,

Thanks for the response. You are still the best person in i3investor to get answer from Jaks power plant project.

For discussion purpose, I look at project evaluation differently, and it is best to use cash flows, or rather free cash flows the JV will get from the 25 years operations.

I concur with you the payback period, using your numbers, that cash flows will be US234m a year. This will be "the number" to be used for valuation.

"Profit" unless it is the same as cash flows, has not much meaning, and hence the PE ratio.

But that number should be the cash flows the jv will get, the cash flows for the firm, CFF of USD234m, but it should not have included interest payment, as the payback formula does not imply it is as such.

The more important thing is what is the cash flows for the equity shareholders, the two partners, CFE. As interest and loan repayment have to be made to the debt providers, that annual amount has to be taken off from CFF to obtain CFE. For a loan of USD1.4b for 25 years, that annual amount of payment is very significant at USD103m a year. That gives a much lower CFE.

What do you think?

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-25 22:54 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz,

Thanks for the compliment.

I agree that the net cash flow after loan interest and repayment is significantly lower as the project is financed by 75:25 debt equity ratio.

I also agree that to determine all future cash flows for the purpose of evaluating Jaks valuation using discounted cash flow method, one must use the eventual NET cash flows after all loan and interest repayment.

However, as it is still very much debated on the earnings capability of the Hai Duong power plant, hence, this article only tried to "work backward" using the 8 years payback period to derive the net cash flow. Then, using the net cash flow to determine the accounting profit by deducting the depreciation.

Normally, the management has to determine the net cash flow from operation using the PPA. Then deduct the loan interest expense to get the Net cash flow for calculation of payback period. The loan repayments are not deducted for this purpose as they form part of the investment payback.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-25 23:23 | Report Abuse

Valuelurker,

You may be right in your estimates, but you don't have to be rude.

Of course, I m aware that cash flows and profit are different and the difference is taken care of in my calculation.

All readers here will appreciate if you could provide some forms of calculations of your RM80-RM100m profit figure.

I have provided several workings for my estimates.

Or can you at least point out my errors so that I can reconsider ?

----------------------
valuelurker Lol cashflows and profits are not the same la donkey66

As I have repeatedly mentioned: -

RM80-100mil profit per annum

In a year you will find out
25/09/2019 8:57 PM

Posted by speakup > 2019-09-26 07:38 | Report Abuse

dont mess with CEO Ang, he is more powerful than any super-investor.
u think u can fark him, he will fark u

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-26 09:48 | Report Abuse

Assuming only RM100m profit to Jaks, what would be the payback period ?


Total power plant profit = Jaks' RM100m profit / 30% = US$80m

+ depreciation US$74.8m

= Total cash flow of US$ 154.8m

Payback period = US$1,870m / 154.8m = 12.08 years

This is not consistent with the 8 years payback period given by the management.

Posted by SarifahSelinder > 2019-09-26 16:31 | Report Abuse

Andy better adopt transparency is the best policy

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-27 09:23 | Report Abuse

Kcchongnz,

In your opinion, what would be the most appropriate discount rate to use for NPV calculation ?

Posted by WiseEye > 2019-09-27 15:01 | Report Abuse

I believe the best discount rate is using weighted average of interest of their existing loans. Or you can use CAPM model which calculates the cost of equity and cost of debt together.

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-27 15:46 | Report Abuse

Thanks wiseeye

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-27 15:47 | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/227063.jsp

Posted by DK66 > 2019-09-30 23:20 | Report Abuse

Personally, among the various methods including IRR, Payback and DCF, used to forecast the cash flow or profit of Hai Duong power plant, I found peer comparison with Mong Duong II the most convincing. Especially the capacity charge of US$253m in 2018 gave me a base price for evaluation purposes.

Mong Duong II is a very close model for Hai Duong Plant, much closer than any business comparison you can find. I m very confident in their resemblance; their capital structures, the locations, their sizes, their PPAs, CSAs, BOT contracts etc.

If you are interested, you can visit;

"Jaks Resources – Peer Comparison With Mong Duong II"

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/204451.jsp

Posted by Collin Soo > 2019-10-10 13:21 | Report Abuse

Thank you for sharing