Posted by probability > 2020-01-31 18:51 | Report Abuse

What Will It Take to Stop Coronavirus?

https://hbr.org/2020/01/what-will-it-take-to-stop-coronavirus

Contact tracing
...............

People who have been around someone with a confirmed infection should be identified and monitored. If they develop any symptoms, they should be isolated and treated until laboratory testing can be done to determine if they have 2019-nCoV.

Screening with clinical case definition.
.......................................

Because there are likely many unreported cases, we need to use a clinical case definition, a checklist of symptoms and risk factors suggestive of infection, to screen people not known to be contacts of infected people but who have concerning symptoms. Because 2019-nCoV, like SARS, causes such ubiquitous symptoms, a case definition includes whether patients with these symptoms have been in an area with known transmission or around people who have. Those who screen positive should be isolated and treated until tested and, if positive, quarantined until they are no longer capable of transmitting infection.

These strategies are already being implemented. However, if it turns out that asymptomatic transmission — transmitting the disease by someone who displays no symptoms — is possible, all contacts and people who have been exposed to areas with known transmission would also need to be tested, regardless of whether they show any signs of illness. This is not currently being done.

These approaches may suffice to contain the spread of 2019-nCoV in countries, such as the United States, where there have been only a few cases (all with links to recent travel to affected parts of China) and in places yet to be affected. However, in affected parts of China where transmission is already widespread, these strategies will face major challenges in containing the spread of the virus.

Since virtually anyone living in an area of transmission could have been exposed, any of the thousands who develop a fever or a cough each day need to be isolated and treated while awaiting laboratory testing. This does not appear to be happening in the Chinese lockdown zones where hospitals, some of which cannot even test for 2019-nCoV, are overrun and patients are being turned away without being tested.

Chinese authorities are setting up screening checkpoints throughout the country. In the city of Wuhan, the epidemic’s epicenter, they are rapidly building two large hospitals with a combined total of 2,300 beds for isolating, testing, and treating 2019-nCoV; they hope to have the hospitals operational within two weeks. But 2019-nCoV may have already spread so extensively that even 2,300 beds might not be enough in a city of 11 million.

What is more, it may not be possible to establish such hospitals in every affected city or transport patients from far-flung areas to these centralized facilities. In addition, diagnosing 2019-nCoV requires specialized equipment and personnel that may be difficult to scale to test the thousands of people who need it.

If people without symptoms are capable of transmitting the virus, it would be impossible to test entire city populations.

Posted by probability > 2020-01-31 18:52 | Report Abuse

Home-based isolation.
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A system could immediately be established to take test samples from patients with concerning symptoms who are not severely ill and then send them home with protective respirator masks, instructions on hand-washing to prevent the further spread of the disease, and orders to remain at home until the test results come back. If hospital beds are still limited, patients found to be positive who aren’t severely ill could remain isolated and be treated at home and be only hospitalized if their condition worsens. This approach could preserve precious hospital capacity for those who need it most and prevent people who turn out not to have the disease from being infected in hospitals while awaiting laboratory results.


Rapid diagnostics.
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Another measure that could prove essential is the development of rapid, “point-of-care” diagnostic tests that do not require specialized equipment or technicians and can provide results within minutes. (They are similar to the glucometers used by diabetics to monitor their blood sugar.) Such tests do not yet exist for 2019-nCoV. But they could be developed and manufactured for use within months as opposed to the year or more it would likely take to develop and test vaccines for safety.

Similar to the way U.S. hospitals use rapid-screening swabs during flu season, these tests could be widely used at hospitals, checkpoints, and even households to screen anyone who develops suspicious symptoms or, if asymptomatic transmission proves possible, used to test every person every few weeks to ensure no one is unknowingly spreading the virus. Those screened positive should still undergo laboratory testing for confirmation. If used widely, rapid tests could also uncover unknown hotspots and help determine the full extent of this epidemic.

In previous epidemics, there was hesitance by the World Health Organization (WHO) and others to use such tests because of concerns they are not as accurate as laboratory testing. For example, such tests existed during the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic but may not have been deployed because, compared to laboratory testing, they were not as accurate.

However, had they been used for first-line screening with confirmatory laboratory testing done on those found positive, they could have enabled more infections to be detected quickly and drastically reduced the number of patients needing laboratory testing. One study showed that they could have reduced the extent of the epidemic by a third, and another study had even more dramatic results. Thanks to advancing technology, these tests are becoming increasingly accurate; in the case of some pathogens, they are almost as good as laboratory-based tests for detecting infection.

The 2019-nCoV epidemic is evolving by the hour. We need to move swiftly to respond to this threat.

Posted by probability > 2020-01-31 18:56 | Report Abuse

I think once they establish a Rapid-Diagnostic to even detect asymptomatic cases....

this coronavirus pandemic will be fully under control as this will almost completely eliminate chances of it further spreading.

Lets hope this will take place soon....

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-01-31 19:07 | Report Abuse

Hot weather will stop it

Last time SARS like that

Latest by June or July will definitely be over

Posted by probability > 2020-01-31 19:10 | Report Abuse

yes Icon, i thought of the same thing earlier...hopefully it does

Posted by probability > 2020-01-31 19:15 | Report Abuse

chances of spreading under hot weather is way lesser

Posted by Larrytrader > 2020-01-31 19:17 | Report Abuse

Invincible because those infected are pure travellers from Wuhan

Posted by probability > 2020-01-31 19:28 | Report Abuse

Coronavirus: Why the latest coronavirus will struggle to survive

While the virus has caused alarm now, one expert believes it will struggle to survive in the summer months.

Jan 31, 2020

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1233100/coronavirus-outbreak-countries-where-is-coronavirus-travel-advice

The coronavirus has come at a difficult time for health officials, who may be struggling to contain the human-to-human transmission in the cold winter conditions.

Winter serves as an ideal breeding ground for viruses which have achieved the ability to spread between people, as they are more stable in cold air, and low humidity helps them to “float” for longer.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, he said: “Warm weather is not favourable conditions for the coronavirus.

“Other types of coronavirus infection is usually what gives a cold.

“Colds are more frequent in the wintertime as cold temperatures cool down the membrane on the nose which makes it easier for the virus to enter the body.”

...........

no wonder Malaysia is relatively immune under high humidity...

Posted by moniekj > 2020-02-01 12:57 | Report Abuse

I believe these counters will doing well in 2020:
1. Notion
Strong growth counter. At least 4q's yoy and qoq.

2. Bahvest
Proxy for gold.

3. Mpay

Digital economy counter. Price at rock bottom.

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 13:31 | Report Abuse

It could be far to wait until 6 months later. We would know how DJ to perform from now to Apr 2020. See how the margin players contain their fear during this period.

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-02-01 13:35 | Report Abuse

C how soon this coronavirus will b over n then horse keeps running we keep dancing

Posted by Icon8888 > 2020-02-01 13:39 | Report Abuse

This year not easy to make money

Because starting from high base after 2019 bullishness

Posted by LA777 > 2020-02-01 14:00 | Report Abuse

Just buy topglove every month.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 17:08 | Report Abuse

Researchers make strides in race to create coronavirus vaccine

International teams accelerate efforts to find effective immunisation method

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/01/researchers-make-strides-in-race-to-create-coronavirus-vaccine

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 19:02 | Report Abuse

Indonesia despite having 270 Million population and likely more workers working abroad and mainland chinese within the country...recorded nil patients.

This is a stark difference to Germany where asymptomatic infection took place across person to person in 3 stages even before the first victim showed symptoms.

............

Definitely humidity plays a significant role on the spread-ability of the virus. Hotter climate close to the sea like Indonesia...ensures high humidity level. And high humidity is definitely preventing novel coronavirus ability to float for spreading which can only take place within a circumference of 2 meter (just 6 feet!) before it drops to the ground.


Southern Philippines is also similar climate and thus the cases there is also very low.

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 19:13 | Report Abuse

The main culprit is lacking of transparency in the official data and measures taken to prevent contagious of the infection leading people to FEAR situation. CCP officials are still fighting for power internally and disseminating manipulated information for political purpose. Nobody knows what's really happening except top CCP officials.

FEAR : an unpleasant emotion or thought that you have when you are frightened or worried by something dangerous, painful, or bad that is happening or might happen.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 19:22 | Report Abuse

also at high humidity level the virus has to compete with H20 molecules in order to get attached to the nasal mucus membranes and lungs alveolus sites to infect....

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 19:28 | Report Abuse

Financial market is very sensitive to uncertainty leading to fear situation. It will contagious massively when negative news popped up unexpectedly one another making everyone feeling insecure. Hope US's CDC to come out an independent report of the epidemic development after their team entering China for investigation.

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 19:32 | Report Abuse

When FEAR virus arrives, FA & TA become useless. Emotion rules the market.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 19:41 | Report Abuse

i think investors are not afraid of the coronavirus outside china...its more of the global economic implication of china lock-down on its business activity...

the total new cases will reach a plateau within a week....as the count rise we are seeing currently are those that took place earlier before the lock-down/preventive measures...

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 19:51 | Report Abuse

People won't fear much if actual data is presented to the public since they know what is really going on. It's not only Hubei being quarantined. Some provinces have implemented quarantine measures secretly. People China don't even know when they can start working now after CNY. What if the shutdown period extend longer period? China domestic demand slumps and It may seriously affect the supply chain globally.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 19:59 | Report Abuse

International scientist saying China had been way more transparent compared during SARS time by sharing the genetic codes of the virus immediately...

If you see the no. of infection outside china and determine the infection percentage of those who came out of wuhan before the lock down and extrapolate to the wuhan population...the number of infection cases being reported by China is tallying.

Since it takes 14 days (incubation period) for asymptomatic patients to show signs...we will know the true extent of infection within a week..calculating from 23rd Jan.

The final figure (within next week) will be likely double the amount discovered presently...and then would likely reach a plateau.

Its likely that China would impose the lockdown till the no. of new cases reaches the plateau. (Mid of Feb)

......

I see no surprises...and nothing is being hidden

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 20:07 | Report Abuse

I am interested in only what actions have been taken by CCP and other countries to combat this epidemic to make an evaluation or counter checking with their official data. I would ignore all sweet words.

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 20:21 | Report Abuse

Information from unofficial channels are a good source to verify the reliability of the official data. It provides certain degree of insights of the real situation. Sometimes, it helps us to make a critical decision before market start heading downturn.

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 20:45 | Report Abuse

Trump has given sweet talks in his twitter by praising CCP officials prompt actions taken and good transparency....What actions taken by him after giving out candies...

- Evacuating embassy staffs priority and citizen
-It will stop issuing new visas to Chinese travelers, and starting Saturday, it will bar any travelers who have been to China in the past 14 days. Singapore citizens, permanent residents and holders of long-term visas will be exempt but will be encouraged to stay home for two weeks in case of infection.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 20:59 | Report Abuse

The fatality rate is just 2% and it needs close proximity of 2 meters to transmit (meaning only close contact).

Now the only headache from this virus is the asymptomatic incubation period of 14 days...

Once you physically block people away by 2 meters for 14 days, you basically eliminate chances of transmitting.

............

and thats what all these countries (US & Singapore) are doing after the greenlight from WHO....to avoid unnecessary psychological headache for months ahead in their own countries.

Better to suffer 14 days by making this draconian separation...then living with it later forever...

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 21:03 | Report Abuse

Its just a Chess game to check-mate the Crown-king (Coronavirus_

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 21:24 | Report Abuse

When the reliability of the official data is questionable...Once trust is broken, people want to read or watch unofficial channels trying to get closer to the real situation. They trend to believe in worst or pessimistic estimation or figures popped up from their minds in order to get a relieve of strong insecurity. Then dinosaur FEAR is magnifying to rule the market.

https://www.ccn.com/official-coronavirus-count-nears-12000-but-this-model-estimates-75000-infections/

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 21:30 | Report Abuse

you can already see the death rate starts to decline now...its not rising as much a the infection rise day by day...even 75,000 the max fatality is only 1500...so be it...

market will be quick to react...the current fear is only how china market will react on Monday...

by Tuesday...all fear will vaporize...

the best news is when fatality rate becomes under control and start to standstill...

then virus fear will definitely be OVER
........................

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 21:43 | Report Abuse

Follow Mr. Market trend is the best. Lolz

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 21:43 | Report Abuse

provided you can time better than market..he he

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-01 21:50 | Report Abuse

We won’t be here if we don’t time the market as a trader. High risk low bet... Low risk high bet....Time market correctly to win big to cover losses from incorrectly timing. Win or lose is part of the game and nothing new. What important is consistently making money...may be I am being more conservative.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 22:02 | Report Abuse

to me, there is an imminent danger that the fear will subside rapidly......

as i think we are the climax of the fear level now...i cant see it peaking further after monday...

as such i cannot see this as a sustained trend with a momentum in it...

there is not much mass in it to carry any momentum

Posted by probability > 2020-02-01 22:30 | Report Abuse

Coronavirus: when winter comes, spring is never far behind

A letter from the Chinese embassy to the UAE on co-operation, compassion and courage

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/coronavirus-when-winter-comes-spring-is-never-far-behind-1.972541

The situation is still serious. The novel coronavirus spreads quickly and has a relatively long incubation period, and this means the number of confirmed cases in China is still increasing. But at the same time, we need to be aware that its fatality rate is lower than Mers, Sars or even influenza. With the positive impacts of China’s measures rolling in, many experts predict that a turning point may come soon. Cities are in lockdown and grid management systems are in place to restrict movements. Medical teams from across the country coming to the Hubei province’s aid, donations and supplies are arriving in affected areas daily and new, specialised hospitals are nearly complete after only 10 days of construction. Thus far, 243 patients have been cured and discharged from Chinese hospitals, including an 80-year-old senior citizen. All of this is inspiring news. China is confident, capable and sure to win this war against the novel coronavirus outbreak.

.........................

Walao...even 80 year old got cured!

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 11:32 | Report Abuse

If you see the incremental infection per day vs incremental death per day..

Fatality rate was initially 30 for every 1500 new infections...around 2.0%..
But the latest rise is 2500 with death of 40...meaning fatality rate dropped to 1.6%.

This means the true fatality rate is even lesser as only the serious critically ill would have approached health care at the earliest and there were many asymptomatic cases.

true fatality rate could be just 1.0% or lesser if proper healthcare could be provided on time.

https://thewuhanvirus.com/

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-02-02 11:51 | Report Abuse

Good to hv rational sifu like probability in i3...very rare nowadays in i3

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

Locals outside China infected will only reach 50 by end of the year
....................................................................

out of the 175 infected internationally so far...how many had no directly link with Wuhan from a close contact?

I think it was only germany and japan had wuhan member to local infection of about 4 people in total.

Thats just 4 people infected out wuhan members of 171 in a time frame of 1.5 months as these visitors had been travelling since the infection started early dec in Wuhan.

4/171 = 2% rise over 45 days...

For simplicity, just take the growth rate of 2% for 1 month, in 1 year (12 months), this grows to:

1.02*to the power of 12 = 1.25

This means the infection count size would increase by merely 25% at the end of the year max.

Thats just additional infection to locals international by max 50 person.
.......

I think above calculation is perfectly reasonable considering the available data

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 12:09 | Report Abuse

the above is true provided the current visitors screening level is maintained internationally or if the number of cases from china comes down and becomes under control and screening is back to normal.

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-02 13:34 | Report Abuse

認知失調

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-02-02-story-h1483015900.jsp

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-02 13:40 | Report Abuse

這三種人，就是詐騙集團最愛的肥羊

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb7LKEcGk4c

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2020-02-02 14:07 | Report Abuse

Aiyo...first month edi many bad news...hehe

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-02 14:12 | Report Abuse

Who want to spend time to analyze their financial statements if you know that their (Management) credibility is questionable?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Sslee_blog/2020-01-18-story-h1482839952-The_Ugly_Mainland_Chinese_CSL_Xingquan_and_Maxwell.jsp

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-02-02 14:20 | Report Abuse

Sslee....

Posted by CharlesT > 2020-02-02 14:21 | Report Abuse

Only sslee...

Posted by Up_down > 2020-02-02 14:37 | Report Abuse

Yeah. SSlee did a small part in analyzing. He is a retire man and did it for charitable purpose.

Posted by BillyK > 2020-02-02 17:32 | Report Abuse

Fuyoh no. 3. My horses doing alright

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 17:36 | Report Abuse

Wuhan virus fatality rate outside Hubei is just 0.2%! This is a shocking truth everyone should know.

refer the table on the below link on the infections in China based on territory and fatality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory

As of 30th Jan
.............

Outside Hubei, within China infections: 9692 (China) - 5806 (Hubei)
= 3886

Outside Hubei, within China fatality: 213 (China) - 204 (Hubei)
= 9

Fatality rate outside Hubei:
= (9/3886)
= 0.2%
=========

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 17:36 | Report Abuse

The huge difference in death rate in Hubei region is due to the lock down by China government on Wuhan where they are forced to live with limited hospitals (healthcare).

...........

The govn is not allowing them to go out for medical treatment and instead building hospitals from scratch within Wuhan....

Purely to safeguard other regions. Pity the Wuhan residents.

Posted by probability > 2020-02-02 17:48 | Report Abuse

Once they are able to contain the death rate within Wuhan with the new hospitals, the true fatality rate which should definitely be lesser than 0.5% will come to surface....

I think the media had grossly unaccounted on the reality...where the high fatality rate seen currently is purely due to compromised healthcare in Wuhan, where the Govn of china are choiceless to safeguard other region and bring the spreading into control.

Posted by Shinnzaii > 2020-02-03 12:27 | Report Abuse

Aiyo...Coronavirus +H5N1 in china...US got influenza now bigger threat threat...bad start bad start...hehe