Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-02 08:01 | Report Abuse

By the way why uniqlo?
https://www.retailresearch.org/whos-gone-bust-retail.html

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-02 23:29 | Report Abuse

Valuations and Forward Returns

Let’s get back to our thought experiment.

I recently wrote about Palantir. When I wrote that post just a few weeks ago, the shares were trading at $10, but the stock has promptly rocketed to $29/share. It now has a market cap of $50bn compared to sales of ~$1bn. Factset pegs their EV/forward Sales ratio at 45x. In the previous post, I used Google as a perhaps extremely bullish comparison for PLTR. What would have happened if you paid 45-50x sales for Google back when it IPO’d in 2004? 

In 2004 Google ended up with $3.1bn in sales and 272m shares outstanding, or roughly $11.39 sales/share. If you paid 50x that, you would have paid $569/share for the stock. The stock is now worth $1764, so you would have made a 7.3% CAGR in the shares, instead of the 20% CAGR you would have made if you paid $90 for the shares in 2004 (the actual trading price). The S&P 500 did 7.4% CAGR from 2005-2020, so you wouldn’t have even made the S&P return if you paid that much for Google way back then. This is precisely what it means to have a stocks odds handicapped in such a way that the payoff for being “right” on the company can . I can’t emphasize how much of a bull case is embedded in the current price for Palantir, Google was growing way faster than Palantir was at a similar stage of its life, even though Palantir is spending literally all of its profit on trying to grow their revenues. Alphabet is currently the 29th largest company in the world on a revenue basis. Does anyone expect Palantir to be as big as Alphabet/Google 15 years from now? That is the type of growth that the market is pricing in.

Posted by Sslee > 2020-12-02 23:40 | Report Abuse

https://charioteerinvesting.com/staring-into-the-valuation-abyss/

Posted by Archer > 2020-12-03 00:36 | Report Abuse

This is one of the US stocks Im eyeing to get back in. Up whole month and drop to 22.5x as i speak. Any idea about this stock?

Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-12-04 08:25 | Report Abuse

Well, I started posting about it on my telegram group in November, some good insights from some of the software engineers in the group. I am just reposting some of the posts there.

You can discuss more with them there.

Posted by Archer > 2020-12-09 11:23 | Report Abuse

I miss pltr but bought algm and amwl.

Posted by Archer > 2020-12-09 11:34 | Report Abuse

Abnb ipo will be interesting.