I come from a village and used to help out in the palm oil estate. I can tell from your article you have 0 knowledge and experience in anything related in palm oil apart from trading in it.
palm oil is a very matured industry. The reason why peter lim was able to compound his wealth is because palm oil was a growing industry. and do you know why prior to 1980 palm oil was not popular? because we have to manually pollinate it, but 1982 was the year they introduce this beetle that can pollinate the palm oil tree without manual labour, thus many converted their rubber estate to palm oil.
IOI, KLK, UTDPLT, SOP, INNO are all big palm oil companies and if you look at google earth, almost or majority of the flat land are covered in palm oil, planting more trees is not an option, extracting more yield from new trees is not as high as it was before, thus the only driver is FPSO price....
and the bottleneck we have now is what? labour shortage.
I bet you dont even know what you are tying, you just simply type and hope to goreng the stock, probably invested most of your money and waiting for all palm oil stock to fly. maybe it will, but one thing for sure, your article is pure BS.
let me repeat, there is nothing to time, it is a matured industry and wont double or triple the market cap anymore anytime soon.
Although Palm oil is a matured industry there are cyclical boom time in year 2012 to 2014 when Cpo prices crossed Rm4400 a ton and all Palm oil prices were at cyclical highs
Conversely when Palm Oil prices crashed to the low of Rm2200 per ton many palm oil prices crashed by 60% to 70% like Jtiasa & WTK
Now that CPO prices rebounded both Jtiasa & WTK are going up
What is the cause?
Answer:
1) Drought in Brazil & USA decimate corn & soybean production
Both produce soyoil & corn oil. As prices of these oils increased palm oil also rise up in tandem
The follows the LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND CYCLE
2) Joe Biden Pivoting to Green Energy That is why Phiips 66 converted from Crude oil to Biodisel
Again like Soybean & corn --- Palm oil is part of the green energy biodiesel trend
I am not saying palm oil won't rally, just saying your article is BS. You know why? Peter Lim made it by investing and a company doing nothing, just like Warren Buffet in Geico and Coca Cola.
You on the other hand jump here and there like a frog. Using Peter Lim as an example is wrong, you should use a billionaire trader that jump from one stock to another.
Will Palm Oil rally? who knows, with the Fed printing so much money, anything goes. The last palm oil rally lasted for 2 years. This time with so much money, it might last longer or the Fed might step in and raise rates as inflation gets out of control.
I am living in a village growing jagung. What about you?
On Monday, IHS Markit Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 53.9 in April from 49.9 in March, indicating a solid improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector.
“Overall sentiment was rather positive, stoked by news that China's exports had unexpectedly accelerated, while its import growth had hit a 10-year high,” he said.
China's exports had unexpectedly accelerated. Good news for the whole world.
Gloves counter are better than Oil Palm countets lah. In early 2000 , no one know LWC, Kuan ,Stanley and another Lim of Kossan. Today, 2 of them.are top 10 richest in Malaysia. The other 2 in top 20. Palm oil ASP is 30 yrs high and will peak soon. There are only 8 billions peoples on earth. There are.so many types of other oils like coconut oils,soya bean oils, olive oils, peanut oils ,sun flower oils ,pork oils which are competitors to palm oils. There are only 8 billions population on earth with growth rate of less than 1.5 %. How much can people increase the consumption ? Also,as peoplez become more healty conscious, they will take less oil and prefer olive oils. Besides, oil palm companies cannot scale up capacities like gloves. You cant grow land to double the size like gloves capacity.It takes years.Also, it takes at least 5 years for the trees to bear fruits unlike gloves which can be doubled or tripled its capacity in a few years and then immediately can produce gloves. Palm oil ASP will peak soon as there are many alternatives.The profit growths are peanuts compared with glove counters.
Palm oil price has been going up since last year, my question is why most of the palm oil companies are not reporting crazy profits? Please explain. The reason is labor shortage and low yield, palm oil price up also no use, not enough people harvest, thus the shortage which causes the price to go up. If they can solve the labor problem, then price will drop as supply will go up.
So, how can palm oil companies make big profit? Lets take United Plantation as an example, the best run plantation company in Malaysia with the best yield per hectare.
This is not 1 or 2 companies, it is the entire industry, thus goes to show palm oil price can rally but as long as there is labor shortage, profit will not fly.
Aluminum price went up, PMetel profit goes up and so does the share price. Palm oil companies got make crazy profit or not?
Also, palm oil is not the only cooking oil, got many alternative.
They cannot report crazy profit bcos production volume dropping too low due to lack of fertilizer use & lack of workers and the palmoil are suffering from record low price about 1.5 to 2 yrs ago mah!
Now palmoil has move up from rm 1880 to Rm 4780 per tonnes...the story changes very soon...productions volume are starting coming back due very good price mah!
Posted by MiaoMiao7 > May 8, 2021 4:03 PM | Report Abuse
Palm oil price has been going up since last year, my question is why most of the palm oil companies are not reporting crazy profits? Please explain. The reason is labor shortage and low yield, palm oil price up also no use, not enough people harvest, thus the shortage which causes the price to go up. If they can solve the labor problem, then price will drop as supply will go up.
So, how can palm oil companies make big profit? Lets take United Plantation as an example, the best run plantation company in Malaysia with the best yield per hectare.
This is not 1 or 2 companies, it is the entire industry, thus goes to show palm oil price can rally but as long as there is labor shortage, profit will not fly.
Aluminum price went up, PMetel profit goes up and so does the share price. Palm oil companies got make crazy profit or not?
Also, palm oil is not the only cooking oil, got many alternative.
The reason palm oil companies did not report crazy profits last year because the increase of average cpo price was barely offset the reduction of production.
if u look at the cpo price last year, the asp was barely hit RM3000. Now think about it, what if the asp hits RM4000 or even RM5000 this year? As the global commodities price keep surging due to helicopter money, this asp is a very possible scenario since cpo is in consolidation mode since beginning of the year. So r u going to act only when everyone knows the asp is at record high, just like what happened to glove asp now? Wait until these fcking IBs give u a ridiculous TP when the stock price hit the moon?
Even if they manage to solve the labor shortage problem, i doubt that the cpo price will drop significantly because the price driver is no longer just supply and demand but helicopter money.
We all knew how helicopter money caused the ridiculous spike in global housing price and gold price 10 years.
This time the helicopter money goes to commodities and cryto.
Calvin and Ahbah , Investment timing is very important and be at least medium and long term horizon . Dont buy at the peak . Gloves stocks had came down 50 to 60 % from the peaks in August last year . I did not promote glove counters then because the earnings were still not proven , PE were high . Glove stock prices peak before its ASP peak . There was a 9 months to a year lead of the share prices over its ASPs . Glove stocks had finally PROVEN to deliver fantastic results in the last 3 qtrs after August 2020 while their prices came down 50 % . THeir PE are less than 5 while they will continue to deliver superb results in the next few years with double and tripling of capacities . The palm oil price cannot keep going up forever since it started picking up 2 years ago in 2019 .Likewise , the oil palm counters will peak soon or already peak now before its palm oil ASP peak which may happen in 3 to 6 months time or even earlier . When palm oils ASP came down finally , do the plantation counters have doubling of capacities to compensate for the drop in ASPs ?
Remember 2 of the world most richest & savvy investors w.buffet & bill gates like investing in farmland now mah!
U can emulate them now too mah....!!
Thats why the 2 richest savvy investors have taken note the point of concern that palmoil & commodity price cannot going up forever like the case of glove & eventually the commodity price will also fall 1 day mah!
To address this issue or concern w.buffet & bill gates, say buy farmland & palmoil plantation, even the commodity price fall, u still have great protection on the value of cheap plantation land & farmland mah..!
If u buy into cheap land, u have both margin of safety accorded by cheap land plus prospect of reaping great profit from high palmoil price loh!
Thus u should Quickly Buy into palmoil plantation now, b4 its price shoot up mah!
Time to be a little bit more contraian in view of mkt at reasonable high level mah!
Warren buffet says inflation is definitely coming in view of low interest interest and speculative sign such as bitcoin, rubbish stock price run up sky high and unrealistic stock valuation & expectation and now raw commodities price run up mah!
Bill Gates already bought alot of farmland at low in preparation & in anticipation for the coming armmagedoom coming mah! Why would one the world tech best richest owner switch alot of his investment into farmland, this bcos farmland or value real estate if it is bought at reasonable low price, u cannot go wrong over longterm bcos the availability of land is limited, u cannot manufacture land like bitcoin mah!
Coming back to msia the equivalent to farmland is oil plantation, u still can get it real cheap & it is paying u reasonably good dividend loh...this is the best defensive & offensive play like bill gates and warren buffet had highlighted mah!
As calvin sifu said timber is at record price & palmoil at record price surely some optimism will spillover to plantation & timber share price mah!
But this up 1 to 2 sen is chicken feed mah, why up so little leh ??
Timber & palmoil share r suffering from lack of production mah and also huge impairment losses on its assets mah & previous falling share price mah! Thus they are jittery on recovery of palmoil & timber share loh!! They want to see actual profit b4 jump in loh!! That means if u base on profit...as indicator that means the share price will be lagging loh!
Then why promote Wtk leh ?? 1. The owner , directors and insiders already accumulating quietly without fanfare mah! 2. The palmoil & timber production volume of wtk, mhc, jtiasa, boustead, ijm plant already creeping up loh...this is further support by the record price of its commodities. Just imagine u have higher prices & higher volume....that will be a very important sign of higher big profit coming mah! 3. The share price already corrected over 3 yrs of downtrend previously, when there is a big shakeout of all the weak holders...u can only grow more optimistic as time past by loh! 4. Wtk is sitting on some prime land that invested at a very low cost near major town & city, they are good development mah! 5. With all the liquidity & quantitative easing & low interest rate environment, u can see big inflation will be coming loh...!! Wtk in commodities business plus very big cheap land bank is a very good inflation protector mah!
Based on the above i think wtk , jayatiasa & ijmplant is the best pick to make profit & this is concur by sifu calvin findings also mah!
Posted by pjseow > May 8, 2021 6:08 PM | Report Abuse
Calvin and Ahbah , Investment timing is very important and be at least medium and long term horizon . Dont buy at the peak . Gloves stocks had came down 50 to 60 % from the peaks in August last year . I did not promote glove counters then because the earnings were still not proven , PE were high . Glove stock prices peak before its ASP peak . There was a 9 months to a year lead of the share prices over its ASPs . Glove stocks had finally PROVEN to deliver fantastic results in the last 3 qtrs after August 2020 while their prices came down 50 % . THeir PE are less than 5 while they will continue to deliver superb results in the next few years with double and tripling of capacities . The palm oil price cannot keep going up forever since it started picking up 2 years ago in 2019 .Likewise , the oil palm counters will peak soon or already peak now before its palm oil ASP peak which may happen in 3 to 6 months time or even earlier . When palm oils ASP came down finally , do the plantation counters have doubling of capacities to compensate for the drop in ASPs ?
SUMMARY FROM UNITED PLANTATION LATEST REPORT, THE BEST PLANTATION IN MALAYSIA:
WINDFALL TAX [ The higher palm oil price is, the more the gov tax ]: In addition, windfall tax paid increased by 528.2% to RM9.2 million during the current quarter from RM1.5 million in the corresponding quarter.
OUTLOOK [ Not enough labor ]: Covid-19 developments continue to influence market sentiments. Normal supply/demand factors are still relevant, however, the bulk of the news headlines are related to the pandemic and the progress made in terms of the global vaccination roll out.
A direct Covid-19 related factor impacting the Malaysian Palm Oil Industry continues to be the pronounced travel disruptions preventing the recruitment of guest workers (who make up around 85% of the total labour force in the Malaysian plantation sector today) from taking place. This disruption has resulted in very considerable labour shortages throughout the Plantation Industry today including United Plantations Bhd.
I only started to trade in Bursa again year ago after stop for almost 10 years because lost money. On and Off I do come to i3investor to check on so call "expert" recommendation for stocks to invest. I do not know who is this Calvintaneng, but I did made profit from HLT, Carepls, Esceram, Naim, Jtiasa, MHC, TDM and THplant because of his recommendations. I also lost money on Netx and recently AZRB (still holding) because of him too. So to me is still quite high % of success rate. Of course I do some layman TA and FA before invest. Thank you Calvintaneng.
MiaoMiao ,who cares you are from village or from jungle ,we come here to make money from share trading ,if you don't like plantation stock,please don't buy plantation share. For those who would like to support Calvin promotion,please go ahead ,time will prove Calvin is right most of the time !!!
I do agreed with Calvin Tan. CPO price up is the catalyst to drive palm oil stock price rising. Same as Glove initially, the catalyst for the glove share prices rising was due to increasing rate of covid and aluminium too (China Factor). There is no permanent guarantee of this trend as no body knows what will happen in the future. Just like Glove when ppl bought glove share initially would they care about the vaccine roll out and now the same people are degrading the glove stock. Of course at the least have to be testified by few quarters'financial results. Palm oil stocks at this juncture am opine havn't gained the majority market players' consensus.
What drives up palm oil prices?? This is a very fundamental question. The world total cooking oil consumption is almost fixed. The growth per year is only about 1 to 2 percent unlike gloves which grew more than 20 % last year and another 20 to 25 % this year and next year due to the covid pandemic. Post pandemic ,it is expected to grow between 12 to 15 % due to better hygience awareness from both medical and non medical fields. The palm oil uptrend is most likely due to shortages rather than increased demand because peoples dont suddenly use more oils for cooking . I do not think the potential use of palm oil as biodiesel for cars is feasible now because more and more countries are.going for EV. Once the shortage is overcomed, the high inventory will drive down the price. My opinion .
I check out with some vegeoil expert the future palmoil can still be promising;
1. There are big shortages in vegeoil 2. All the inventory of vegeoil is running low. 3. The world population is increasing 2% to 3% pa supporting consumers consumption. 4. there wide use of palmoil from consumer food, cosmetic, toiletries, industrial use like lubrications, ethanol, aerosols and fuel and chemical applications.
The direction is strong accumulation for IJMPLANT mah...!!
This company has 60k planted hectarage in sabah & indonesia, alot of its plantation is emerging as prime stage mah! This will boost its revenue & profits with good cpo price loh...!!
U can expect superb result this coming December qtr mah...!!
Strong buy, do not missed loh!
What does this cpo price trend below tell U leh ??
Date Settlement Price RM 7 May 4788 3 Dec 3332 2 Dec 3316 1 Dec 3347 30 No 3305 27 No 3338 26 No 3227 25 Nov3285 24 No 3249 23 Nov 3326 20 Nov 3288
Ans; Rising CPO price and Rising Profit loh!!
Until Sept latest qtr result cpo average is roughly rm 2600 mah!!
December QTR we will be seeing conservatively Average Price Rm 3200, that is 23% increase in price n this increase revenue will all goes to the bottom line profit as there are no cost applicable to revenue generated from price increase loh...!!
Just imagine if Average palm oil price is Rm 2800, U already see super strong profit loh!! But now we are at above 4788 loh...!!
Can U forecast & project what will palmoil company potential super profit at rm 4500 cpo leh ?
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Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-05-08 01:18 | Report Abuse
https://vulcanpost.com/699515/peter-lim-billionaire-singapore/