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42 comment(s). Last comment by SEE_Research 2023-01-16 19:45

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-28 21:32 | Report Abuse

hokkien says

puak kiau
puak kiau
su liaw liaw

translated it means

play contra
play contra
lose everything

Tiger62

1,902 posts

Posted by Tiger62 > 2022-03-29 09:24 | Report Abuse

soon the Russia/Ukraine war will be over as Russia cannot keep on spending huge amount of money for the war to prolong. Ukraine will be split into two countries either east ukraine and west ukraine or North/South Ukraine. Superbull run of plantation counters will end in 2 weeks

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-29 09:30 | Report Abuse

no leh

Sunflower oil only one of 4 major vege oil

Right now Ukraine short window of planting will be over soon and lacking fertilizer plus many farmers still stranded in Poland will cause shortfall in planting sunflower

This shortfall once window of planting season over cannot be replaced

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-29 09:34 | Report Abuse

Canola oil crop failed in Canada last summer and this year Too much rain in NSW, Australia impacted quality of canola oil

as a result Canola oil spiked up from Usd600 to Usd1,145 and up by over 85% above world record

There won't be any canola until end 2022 harvest which will also be impacted by la Nina drought

As such if we Benchmark Cpo price by another 85% rise from Rm4000 world record it should be above Rm7000

Posted by MrPatience > 2022-03-29 09:57 | Report Abuse

Does palm oil companies sell on spot price? or sell Call contracts to lock in profit at certain price?

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2022-03-30 11:42 | Report Abuse

I guess this is why my uncle wasn't doing well in share market. One of the reason I was staying away from share market was also partly because of him not earning much, possibly losing money.

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 11:56 | Report Abuse

generally people want to earn fast money in share market

so they only like hot popular liquid stocks and avoid cold value stocks

Most remisiers are also not too happy if their clients buy illiquid stocks and little trading. Since they earn from frequent tradings they will point their clients to hot liquid stocks

The more people trade the more remisiers will earn

This works against the long term welfare of their customers

Many who failed later blame the stock market and think it a no no

And remisiers after losing clients will constantly have to look out for new ones

Now good remisiers will care for their customers long term

though earn little in beginning their profits will grow if their customers prosper life long

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 12:00 | Report Abuse

this is a real example

I have two remisiers

one in Kl whose clients are punters and traders

after 30 years he had hundreds if not thousands of customers
very sad

98% of his customers are losing money playing with hot inferior stocks

today he has less than 3 or 4 active customers

earn just enough to survive and some time not even enough

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 12:01 | Report Abuse

I got one remisier in Johor

this remisier is more careful

so retention of customers much better

The_JQuestion

1,544 posts

Posted by The_JQuestion > 2022-03-30 16:47 | Report Abuse

bursa is a low volume sometimes non volatile market sadddd wan contra this is not the market...only bull time can once in very blue moon then have to cut already stop game if continue wait DIE

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2022-03-30 17:36 | Report Abuse

High palm oil price can be sustained for how long?

Posted by Airline Bobby > 2022-03-30 18:53 | Report Abuse

Why 90% lose ? because they follow a Sifu from the 90% category la xD

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 18:54 | Report Abuse

Value investor 88

How high and how long palm oil prices can be sustained ?

This is a very important question

By studying the world weather condition, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the shortfall of other vege oil plus the price of crude oil combined we might get some clarity

1. last summer canola crop failed in Canada and in NSW Australia canola crop quality was impacted by too much rainfall

as such canola oil is now at new world record at Usd1120 above it's previous record of Usd600

Up by over 80%

if we Benchmark Cpo by another 80% increase from Rm4000 then it should be above Rm7000

to be continued

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:00 | Report Abuse

with ongoing war in Ukraine there are two implications

1. War has damaged sunflower seed crushing factory and it's ports are blocked so sunflower oil export is very limited

plus now is Spring time planting season and the difficulty of securing needed fertilizer plus many farmers are refugees in Poland planting might be very limited and concentrated in food crop for survival and less on cash crop like sunflower

That means year end harvest of sunflower will be reduced(if any) and next year will see shortfall of Sunflower oil
as such the palm oil bull run can stretch into mid or end 2023

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:04 | Report Abuse

the embargo of export on Russia has pushed up crude oil

this will spur biofuel use from soyoil, sunflower oil, canola oil as well as palm oil in Indonesia

Plus this year in USA more fossil fuel refineries are being converted to biofuel
so more soybean will be taken up for biofuel

this will help elevate palm oil prices

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:07 | Report Abuse

This year soybean harvest from south america is impacted by too much rain in Mato Grosso and too dry in parana Brazil south

Paraguay is suffering worst and Argentina also did poorly

these will cause shortfall

and palm oil will stay strong in prices

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:08 | Report Abuse

in Malaysia we see the lack of fruit harvesters have seen shortfall in Ffb collection and that reduced palm oil production as well

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:14 | Report Abuse

All these are compounding factors that will sustain palm oil prices above Rm5000 to Rm7000 range till June 2023 and possibly till end 2023 and beyond

Since Cpo cost of production is between Rm1600 to Rm1800

even at Rm5000 the profit is very high since a long long time in coming

So we stay invested and hold tightly for as long as Cpo is elevated

who said what?

Thplant Mr Megat Rizal said even Cpo at Rm2,500 Thplant is making money as cost per ton was Rm1,465 (higher a little due to fertilizer increase)

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:16 | Report Abuse

Kmloong people said Cpo at Rm3000 is already very good as profits will be good

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:18 | Report Abuse

Simedarby plant people are bullish last year saying at least Cpo price will be sustained at Rm4200 by first quarter of 2022 which is fulfilled but much better at above Rm5,000

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-03-30 19:20 | Report Abuse

To Mr Megat if Cpo price can last at Rm5000 till end 2022 will be Very good indeed

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-21 15:13 | Report Abuse

Netflix price collapsed

later all Tech stocks will drop by 60% to 80%

Run to safety of palm oil now

ahbah

6,096 posts

Posted by ahbah > 2022-04-21 20:27 | Report Abuse

90% of the mkt players lose moni bcos they no got come here n follow the advice of the experts here in i3 investor.

ahbah

6,096 posts

Posted by ahbah > 2022-04-21 20:30 | Report Abuse

All plantation stks ... kollect, advice given by the experts here.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-04-22 01:07 | Report Abuse

most cpo counters trading in range of 10-16 pe ratio.... with likes of cepat and sarawak in the low ranges and ioi and klk in the high ranges..... which will prove the better?

Johnzhang

3,032 posts

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-22 07:01 | Report Abuse

many small and mid cap plantations counters are trading at well BELOW 10X PE of 2021's earning, eg SOP (7.2x) , Taann (8.6x) , MHC (6.2 x), Cepat (6.9x) , Swkplant (6.4x) etc.
In the likely event of CPO averaging $6,000 pmt for FY2022, the forward PE of the many small and mid cap plantation may just be 4 - 7 X only !
Huge room for plantation share price to surge.

nicholas99

9,844 posts

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-04-22 08:18 | Report Abuse

yea the 10% need to keep write article tipu ppl buy. or create telegram group tipu more ppl to buy.

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2022-04-22 08:24 | Report Abuse

If u follow General raider the possibility of success is more than 70% but your investment horizon must be longer term above 3 yrs loh!

nicholas99

9,844 posts

Posted by nicholas99 > 2022-04-22 08:46 | Report Abuse

speculated stocks always drop price early. see glove bubble.

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-22 09:15 | Report Abuse

in bad times buy big cap palm oil stocks and avoid small caps

but in bull run like now go for small cap palm oil better

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-22 09:17 | Report Abuse

in bad times buy big cap palm oil stocks and avoid small caps

but in bull run like now go for small cap palm oil better as they will outperform all by more upside overall

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-22 12:19 | Report Abuse

ok what is the logic

in bad times buy well capitalised big cap

in good times buy small cap?

Answer:

Like this

During bad monsoon season off Trengganu the weather is bad only Big Cruise ships are safe while smaller boats will topple over

So in bad weather stay safe in BIG SHIP

IN GOOD TIMES SMALLER BOATS CAN NOW GO FISHING

IN BAD TIMES THEY CANNOT DO ANYTHING BUT STAY ON LAND TO DO ODD JOBS OR REPAIR NETS

UNDERSTAND?

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2022-04-23 11:52 | Report Abuse

Actually in good time or bad time , always buy good profitable quality companies which is managed by people with integrity, no matter whether small & big cap for sustainable long term outperformance loh!

Do not be swayed from this important objective no matter whatever circumstances loh!

Mikecyc

44,657 posts

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-04-23 18:37 |

Post removed.Why?

Mikecyc

44,657 posts

Posted by Mikecyc > 2022-04-23 18:40 | Report Abuse

Haha why so late on plantations ... After the War , price is Peak .. Before the War , price is expected Good until May...

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-23 18:46 | Report Abuse

Stray mouse

Palm oil SUPERBULL will last for all of 2022 and well into year 2023

By then there will be new palm oil millionaires , Multi Millionaires and even Palm oil Billionaires like Robert Kuok and Remisier King Peter Lim of Singapore

So better come back now quai quai from your wandering days

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-04-23 18:48 | Report Abuse

Kind hearted Calvin always kind to his enemies and want them to do well

So better listen to Calvin for once for your own good

stockraider

31,556 posts

Posted by stockraider > 2022-04-24 08:19 | Report Abuse

Remember stick to good stocks which has only malaysian plantation exposure which are not affected by export ban which are;

1. Cepat
2. Hapseng
3. Kmloong
4. MHC
5. Taann
6. swkplant
7. Wtk
8. Bplant

Johnzhang

3,032 posts

Posted by Johnzhang > 2022-04-24 09:44 | Report Abuse

9. SOP

calvintaneng

54,287 posts

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-08-08 23:53 | Report Abuse

10. The very best is Tsh Resources now

newboy18

196 posts

Posted by newboy18 > 2022-08-09 17:53 | Report Abuse

now remisier still earn meh if we key in our own trade?

SEE_Research

4,614 posts

Posted by SEE_Research > 2023-01-16 19:45 |

Post removed.Why?

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