History tells us that only equities able to beat inflation in long term. I am talking about value investing and dividend investing. Not those pump and dump counters promoted by fake gurus here with all sorts of fairy tale projections and kindergarten calculations which could not be achieved in reality..
Cpo spiked up to Rm9000 on overshoot on the upside due to Indon ban exporting palm oil
now Cpo overshoot on the downside to Rm4650 on the resumption of Indon palm oil export
But the surplus palm oil sudden release will be absorbed in next few weeks by world 8 billion people real daily demand for cooking oil and 50% of all supermarket items from bread to biscuit to toothpaste to soap
Also Brent oil still above Usd113 lots of palm oil and soyoil will go into biofuel at sky high prices
Even at Rm3000 km Loong people Said they can make money as cost of cpo production only Rm2000 so at Rm4600 there is still very high real profits
So we will stay invested in palm oil as a class of high food prices now plus people like Robert Kuok invest in palm oil for decades with great success
Construction sector is always the first one to move if there is a genuine recovery in the macro economy. It will then be followed by banking sector. After that, the whole market will start to move in tandem. Based on my experiences. Keyword here is genuine.
gohkimhock. Construction is already half dead after suffering high construction material price for the last 2 years. It's a potential recovery sector while materials prices crashing. Can construction sector perform well during recession period?
plantation share prices down short term do not mean they are down permanently
Palm oil companies will be reporting good decent profits as long as Cpo prices holding above Rm4000 as cost is only Rm2000 and real profit is 100% for efficient players
very high feed cost of maize for chicken so expect higher prices for chicken and eggs soon and if price still under control then prepare to see chicken farmers close shop with no chicken available like in Spore
also prepare to pay higher prices for cooking oil soon and by proxy very high inflation for all products using palm oil
ahbah. Any crash of commodity prices would be directly benefited to the companies with the strong bargaining power in lagging passing the costs benefits to their customers.
in Indonesia Tsh got 4 palm oil mills and during the export ban small time plantation owners with no mill have to sell their fresh fruit bunches at up to 70% discount to mills with 4 palm oil mills in Indonesia will benefit
Fed fight inflation will kill off all consider discretionary but cannot kill consumer stables
Consumer discretionaries are wants of life like Cars, computers, handphones and a million other things of life that people want to have but not need to have
all these will collapse by high interest rates
But consumer stables are NECESSITIES OF LIFE THAT WE MUST HAVE
WE MUST HAVE FOOD AND DRINK - NON NEGOTIABLE OR STARVE TO DEATH
COOKING OIL
MAGGIE MEE AND INSTANT NOODLE GOT 20% PALM OIL
TOOTHPASTE FROM PALM HEARD OF COLGATE PALMOLIVE?
ALL BREAD AND BISCUIT. SEE ALL GOT PALM OIL
CAKES AND ICE CREAM
ALL TEH TARIK..EVERY CUP GOT PALM OIL
MILO, KIT KAT CHOCOLATE
NESTLE BREAKFAST CEREAL
SEE NESTLE ANNUAL REPORT
WORLD BIGGEST USER OF PALM OIL FOR FOOD
INFANT MILK FORMULA
PET FOOD
WASHING DETERGENT
HAIR CREAM AND LIPSTICK
SHAMPOO AND SUN BLOCK
FACE COLOR CREAM NAIL POLISH ALL CANNED FOOD MADE IN MALAYSIA
ALL THE KFC, MCDONALD, DOMINO PIZZA, PIZZA HUT, ALL FAST FOOD
Many consumer goods are included palm oil as its ingredient. The demand of palm is supposed relatively stable over times by referring to the theory supply and demand. Take a few minutes and ponder when the prices of palm oil surging to the crazy level in a short period of time.
Is it a really serious shortage of crude oil in the market whilst India and China are still imported from Russia? China lockdown doesn’t have impact to the crude oil usage? Or it is merely big oil companies, traders and speculators take advantage of the war situation stirring up the ‘shortage’?
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
gohkimhock
2,941 posts
Posted by gohkimhock > 2022-06-25 00:24 | Report Abuse
History tells us that only equities able to beat inflation in long term. I am talking about value investing and dividend investing. Not those pump and dump counters promoted by fake gurus here with all sorts of fairy tale projections and kindergarten calculations which could not be achieved in reality..