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4 comment(s). Last comment by AlphaInvestor 2023-11-24 20:06
Posted by ValueInv888 > 2023-11-24 18:02 | Report Abuse
Posted by UnicornP > 2023-11-24 18:05 | Report Abuse
On Nov 7 night still hidden, now no more hidden liao...
Posted by AlphaInvestor > 2023-11-24 20:06 | Report Abuse
PBA Fair Value based on 3 scenarios:
BEAR: Fair Value (FV) = RM1.75
Neutral: FV = RM2.80
BULL: FV = RM3.50
FY23 = RM92m or EPS = 27.8 sen
FY24 = RM115m or EPS = 34.7 sen
FY25 = RM118m or EPS = 35.6 sen
Now already November 2023, so FY24 EPS is more relevant.
FY24 EPS = 34.7 sen
Scenarios:
1. Bearish Scenario (Recession coming, electronics company all leaving Penang)
I will use 5x PE which is usually used for distressed economy or company.
5 times 34.7 sen = 173.5 sen (RM1.75 for easy reference)
2. Base Case Scenario (Malaysia GDP still grow 3%-5%, no recession, electronics/industries company still expand and use more water every year)
I will use 8x PE which is usually used for normal time, no recession.
8 times 34.7 sen = 277.6 sen (RM2.80 for easy reference)
3. Bullish Case Scenario (Malaysia GDP still grow 5%-6%, US achieved soft landing, Penang electronics/industries company expand a lot and use much more water every year)
I will use 10x PE which is usually used for good time. It is not excessive when market is bullish.
10 times 34.7 sen = 347 sen (RM3.50 for easy reference)
I am using his model and divide the earnings forecast with number of shares to get EPS.
Source:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10aTv66LpAPTC8BtezQ8kgBai_YqkYaV8/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=115125308278906410638&rtpof=true&sd=true
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Koon Yew Yin's Blog
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CS Tan
4.9 / 5.0
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
ValueInv888
18 posts
Posted by ValueInv888 > 2023-11-24 17:22 | Report Abuse
PBA = hidden gem!