Posted by calvintaneng > 2024-06-07 16:39 | Report Abuse

Hope this calculation able to give future guidance on overall JCY business revenue growth for next 6mths to 1year projection, important as long as AI cloud & more data center sales order demand growth + JCY's management teams execution & delivery to hit 80% OEE factory utilization.


Above applies to Dufu as well

Posted by OTB > 2024-06-07 20:44 | Report Abuse

Dear kkwong13,
Q2 2024, Rev=147M, PAT=5.35M
Q3 2024, Rev=189M, PAT=36.26M
Q4 2024, Rev=252M, PAT=82.88M
Q1 2025, Rev=315M, PAT=129.50M
Total, Rev=452M, PAT=253.99M
EPS = 0.119

I think you make a few mistakes, please verify my calculation.
I need to see PAT=36.26M in Q3 2024, then your method of projection is correct.
Presently, I really cannot verify your projection.

Thank you.

Posted by kkwong13 > 2024-06-08 00:36 | Report Abuse

Hi OTB,

Thanks for the re-verification. After go through my calculation, notice I was mistakenly using the wrong Q3'2024 revenue RM147mil as baseline, by suppose to use past Q1'2024 Rev=RM126mil to compare]

In summary:
Q2 2024, Rev=147M, PAT=5.35M [EPS 0.25sen]
Q3 2024, Rev=189M, PAT=36.26M [EPS 1.69sen]
Q4 2024, Rev=252M, PAT=82.88M [EPS 3.51sen]
Q1 2025, Rev=315M, PAT=129.50M [EPS 5.26sen]
Total 4 rolling quarters, Rev=903M, PAT=253.99M
EPS = 0.1071
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To explain further, here is my calculation assumption, based on JCY's (Q2'2024 Rev=RM147mil, PAT=RM 5.35mil, revenue increase of 16% QoQ (+RM21mil)).

As reported in JCY's quarter prospect, the quarter revenue increase is mainly due to a increase of 3% QoQ total HDD storage in unit shipped and 22% QoQ larger total storage capacity to 262Exabytes shipped. This show JCY is producing larger HDD storage capacity units, shipped for its end customers with better product revenue margin, even with minimum increase of 3% QoQ quantity shipped.

[Note: AI cloud & data center end-customer prefer larger HDD,SDD capacity storage unit due to better cost effective, faster, high durability + smaller size per rack storage space + better product margin/unit ship for JCY as well; a win-win for both JCY & end-customers side].

If JYC's end customers continue request for larger total storage capacity quantity build, let say increase from 3% to 10% sales order (by gradual), then its revenue increase by 3x fold multiply by +RM21mil = +RM63mil.
Sum up, total Rev= RM189mil for Q3'2024

After deduct fix operation cost RM 140mil, it become PBT=RM49mil,
after tax, PAT = RM 36.3mil (EPS =1.69sen)

Q3 2024 :
NOSI=2.140 Billion, EPS = 1.69 Sen
PAT = 2140*0.0169= RM36.26 mil
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