Going through its latest annual report during the holiday and decided to buy in even though no confirmation of reversal yet. Geo segments showing recovery across all locations. Further checks on its top 30 shareholdings showing at two local institution inside. I believed its not the cheapest only but safest bet too.
21 spade - checkout RGB's latest annual report and look at its geo segments, major customers and top 30 shareholdings. The financial part is also looking good especially the total debt.
Really looking forward on the upcoming report. if it turn out to be positive profit then the engine start.. to be dividend stock down the road potential
This is a recovery stock that people dont pay attention too. most of the recovery stock already up, and RGB is still staying low. Will see the upcoming 1-2 quarter whether it return to positive profit or not. RGB is supplying not just to Genting but also Macau, Cambodia and Philiphines. The downside risk is very low, in my opinion
4ever5, I agreed with your opinions. The management has done well to clear the long term debt and sell more machines based on the latest annual report. It has started to attract institution's attention as you can see from the top30 shareholdings; coincidentally at the back improved financials - low debt and positive free cash flow.
packhoo, it may take one more quarter to see better numbers for Philippine Pagcor. Metro Manila covid restriction was set at alert level 1 starting 1st Mar - businesses allowed to run at full capacity. Q2 will be a better reference for Philippine Pagcor - full 3 months of business running at full capacity.
hehe, packhoo. You mentioned Philipine Pagcor mah and I just add a little facts on why Philipine Pagcor revenue is bad even though not related to RGB :) You seem to hate RGB so much :) I guessed all the packhoo / coolkhoo / superkhoo are your IDs. are you ex-employee of RGB?
But Pagcor slots on the way to do well. So should be no issue. Now not doing well, but later will do well because philipine is very young economy. Hopefully useless druggues will change addiction to gambling
Gen2, Foker - thanks for the information. Glad to know you guys been following RGB's details. I thought its only two as I am using the link below. Maybe not updated with all the pagcor casinos?
Whether it is just 2 Pagcor casinos I am not sure. But they also supply other equipment to Pagcor like card machines and slot machines for their distribution business
Actually their clientele is well diversified. They also supply to many of the private casinos. But the problem is Aristocrat and Scigames also do direct distribution in the Philippines. So there will be clashes
Foker - thanks for the information. If you looked at its annual report, Malaysia and Southeast Asia segment grew by $9M each. There is this other countries that shot up by $5M from just a normal range of $100k range. Its in page 78 of the latest annual report.
Gen2, Foker - you guys would have noticed institution's presence in RGB too :) Let's wait for the upcoming report and share our findings again. I hope what we saw is the same as what the particular institution saw. I originally wanted to wait for RGB to confirm reversal first but ended up buying in after reading its annual report.
Thanks for the good observation. I check the geographic segment you said. The other countries that shot up from 100k to 5 million should be south ameeica. Rgb boss mentioned before that South America is very big market for slot machine. Looks like they manage to get sizable contract there foe the first time. But I am not too optimisric about it because after so long Aouth Maerica woud already have their own distribution network. May not be so easy for RGB to replace them. Since distribution contractd for RGB aee usually in batchees, it coyld be a one off thing too.
What is not so positive is Pagcor seems to be losing market share to the private casinos. I said earlier the 2018 and 2019 TSM new slot machines are placed at Pagcor casinos. So maybe the TSM division for RGB may not mirror the strong performance of the private casinos. But RGB distribution business should be stromg.
The problem for RGB is 3 things I think. One is the TSM division is already facing problems in their expansion before pandemic. Because most private casinos dont really want the TSM arrangement since they are already experts in the slot machine placement business. Some of the slot machine manufacturers like Aristocrat also offer this kind of arragmenet so they are indeed a competitor to RHB in this respect. Most of RGB slors are located at hotel cum casinos which need RGB expertise more. So RGB can demand more share of the profits as a percentage. RGB has 2 big casins as their TSM partners. They are Donaco and Pagcor owned casinos. Donacao mentioned that the TSM arragement with one fo their parrners which is most likelt to be RGB, is not satisfactory back in 2018 or 201o not too sure. That's not very good aign to me. Then i saw Pagcor agreemenr with RGB for the TSM arragement, the profit sharing ratio is 80:20 means RGN only get 20% of the prpfit share. On top pf that,, RGB must fork out their own money to maintain the slots and upgrade the games. Usually, the pforit sharing ratio for TSN contracts is much higher like 25% to 30% or more. That's why you can see even after RGB laced many slots in Pagcor in 20i and 2019, the TSM profit didn't really show any positive impact. Probbalt because they are uire a higher breakeven level than irs usual TSM contracts
Second, RGB is just a distributor and most of the distribution agreement is non exclusive. So no guarantee growth in Philippine or Cambodia or Vietnam casino will bemefit RGB in the same way. If you check pjillipine casino industry growth, over the last decade it is multifold. But RGB clearly didnt grow much. Although in 218 and 2019 they auddenly increase their sales alot. But based on the trend, phillipine casinos should see very good growth. Even the experts forecast slot machine sales over the next 25 yeaes will be 12 over percent in asia. But again, not guaranteed RGB will benefit. Hopefully they will. Currently, the ones that really rsly on RGB is usually the smaller brands that need RGB's network to penetrate the market. Aristocrat and the ohters already distribute themsleves in Macao, and aome of it in Phillipine.
Third, in Macao, most casinos will opt for western brands. But in south east asia, the slot club and smaller casinos which are major RGN custoemr as a whole, buy both western brand and non western brand like Chinse slot machines or SG slot like Weike. Since RGB mainly carry western brands, they fave this kind of competition.
What really attract me is RGB managed to increase its distribution sales by a lot in 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, its 220 and 2021 sales also did quite well. The results are not too far off from frombefore 2018. Who knows what RGB can achieve after the pandemic. As long as the casino market still keep growing rapidly, i am sure RGB will manage to pick up more business than before. At this peice, regardless of the issues, ir is still quite undervalued.
Why2tellmewhy, tell u why why, i am not ex employee. Why u so concern? Do your company treat the employees like dirt? Afraid to tell investors like me? haha…everyone Know the true without chinese tourists, casino business is nothing. Even for Philippine, slot machines just target local market and expect business to boom. Dreaming la…
Packhoo you are wrong. On the contrary, the slots are targeted at mass market which is the local market. The revenue of privafe casinos already reached 75 percent of 2019 level, without a sinhle chinese customer. The filipino market is huge and growing fast.
Can. Some people make money from growing and thematically potential stocks. Some make from unliked stocks with temporary issues. Don't have to swing when it is not your call
let's just have a lil patience. after all, there are two institutions in RGB top 30 shareholdings right now - the KAF (Core Income Fund & Tactical Fund) and Affin Hwang Investment Bank Berhad IVT. Our observations may not be perfect but institutions must have done their homework too.
Lots of institutions have bought stocks and lost money. Sometimes, institutions do less homework and focus more on themes and other techmival analysis stuff.
possible but their chances of making money is higher as they have the resources (time, money, skillsets like valuation, technical analysis and access to management in general).
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
21spade
199 posts
Posted by 21spade > 2022-05-04 13:35 | Report Abuse
Is RGB planning share buy back up to 10% total shares issued? anyone with info?