i dont think the price will reach 0.70 anymore in the nearest term. CIMB already downgrade TP to 0.63. i already cut loss this afternoon. time to find other opportunity at other counter.
Stonenut no need to argue those who hv no confident with this stock, either these people are contra kaki who get burn badly, or the jus simply waiting to buy low, but when low they dont dare to buy n missed the chance.. we already collected fr 40sens up , so now jus wait n see la.. since we will hold for long terms.. time will tell..
We maintain our forecasts and target price but downgrade our call for Perisai from Add to Reduce on the back of a strong share price outperformance YTD. Furthermore, we do not anticipate any exciting catalysts, at least until mid-year, as management scouts for contracts for three assets – Rubicone, E3 and PP102. We continue to value the stock at 10.5x CY16 P/E, still at a 30% discount to the oil & gas big caps. A potential de-rating catalyst is a prolonged contract search for the three assets. We recommend a switch to our top oil & gas small-cap pick Perdana
What Happened
Perisai’s share price has rebounded sharply as the stock rallies from being the worst performer under our oil & gas coverage in 2014 (Figure 1) to the best performer so far in 2015. The share price has surged by a blistering 52% and outpaced the KLCI by 49% YTD (Figure 2) as oil price continues to recover. The share price has exceeded our target price and yet there are no exciting catalysts for the company, at least until mid-year, as management looks for potential clients for three assets, namely mobile offshore production unit (MOPU) Rubicone, pipelay barge Enterprise 3 (E3) and jack-up PP102. Rubicone and E3 have been unemployed since 1 Oct 2013 after the completion of their respective contracts. PP102 is slated for delivery in Apr/May this year.
What We Think
We understand that Rubicone has been earmarked for work at the PM9 gas field in offshore Terengganu. The MOPU is suitable for the job because it has gas facilities. Also, currently docked at MMHE’s Pasir Gudang yard, the MOPU is ready for deployment. However, a decision on the operatorship of PM9 has been delayed for more than a year and we understand that the earliest a decision will be made is in mid-2015. In the meantime, the upkeep of Rubicone and E3 costs Perisai around RM3.1m per month (RM2m for Rubicone and RM1.1m for E3). E3 is currently docked at Johor Port. We removed Rubicone and E3 from our forecasts in Dec 2014. Our forecasts include only these assets: jack-ups PP101 and PP102, FPSO vessel Perisai Kamelia and various offshore support vessels under Intan. Adding back Rubicone and E3 into our forecasts in 2H15 would boost our EPS by 81% for FY15 and 84% for FY16.
What You Should Do For exposure to oil & gas small caps, we advise investors to switch to Perdana.
Crude Oil Oil rises as OPEC producers signal optimism over market recovery By Bloomberg / Bloomberg | February 17, 2015 : 3:21 PM MYT Share on facebookShare on twitter Printer-friendly versionSend by emailPDF version (Feb 17): Oil traded at the highest price in almost two months in London as OPEC ministers signaled confidence that the market can sustain its rebound.
Futures advanced as much as 1.2 percent, gaining for the third time in four days. There’s a sense of optimism in rising prices and the trend has changed over the past two weeks, Qatar’s Energy Minister Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada said on Monday. The global supply glut is smaller than a previously estimated 1.8 million barrels a day, according to Ali Al-Omair of Kuwait, the third-largest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Oil is recovering from the lowest prices in almost six years as drillers in the U.S., which is pumping crude at a record pace amid a shale boom, reduced the number of active rigs to the fewest since August 2011. The market is shifting its focus to tightening supply, according to Standard Chartered Plc.
“We’ve seen the rig numbers, that will impact estimates going forward,” David Lennox, a resource analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney, said by phone. “There are forecasts for lower production by the end of 2015, especially out of the U.S., and that’s put a halt on the downtrend.”
Brent for April settlement climbed as much as 74 cents to $62.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $62.08 at 2:41 p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 12 cents to $61.40 on Monday. The volume of all futures traded was about 34 percent below the 100-day average.
Price ‘Optimism’
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery was up 41 cents from Friday’s close at $53.19 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The floor session was suspended on Monday for the U.S. Presidents’ Day holiday and transactions will be booked Tuesday for settlement purposes.
OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, on Feb. 9 made the deepest cut in at least six years to its monthly projection for output growth from other producers, predicting the market’s drop means U.S. drillers will pump less than previously anticipated.
“Brent is near $62 and there’s a sense of optimism surrounding this issue,” Qatar’s Al Sada said at an annual meeting of Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co.
U.S. drillers reduced the number of rigs in service by 84 to 1,056, according to Baker Hughes Inc., an oilfield services company. Companies have idled 519 machines the past 10 weeks, a 33 percent reduction, the data showed.
Rig Counts
The decrease in rig counts isn’t enough to stop production growth, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Lower prices may be needed to balance the market because U.S. output could still expand by 600,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter, compared with a year earlier, the bank said in a note on Monday.
The nation’s oil boom has been driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which has unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Permian and Eagle Ford in Texas and the Bakken in North Dakota. Production averaged 9.23 million barrels a day through Feb. 6, the most in weekly Energy Information Administration records dating back to January 1983.
Brent has technical resistance at $61.83 a barrel, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the slide from a nine-month intraday high of $115.71 in June to January’s low of $45.19. Sell orders tend to be clustered around chart-resistance levels.
When past year perisai not doing so well as quoted, the share price is 1.7 highest, in August 2014 still have 1.40.. so whats the problem, once oil back to normal. More contracts are awarded so it will be okay :)
we dont have to always agree with CIMB but we have to consider investors sentiment. once report like this come out, for sure big funds will shy away from this counter.
Talk talk talk comment in this forum useless, only 20% investor know only how about the big player like uncle auntie and big big player, they wont waste time here hahaha how to influence the remaining investor.....
For contra player , when the huge volume with "red colour" the signal is telling u to sell lo , when the huge volume with "green colour" , mean tat they is pushing up the price....
Jayawin said is the truth..making loss...more make sense due to low crude price last year.. but if crude oil now is stabilising ad heading to North, we might see perisai share up.. I dont really bother the results profit or not..most important now is the crude oil future.
We will march on regardless the result. as I told u guys...once crude oil inch up day by day...you will see perisai all tp this apply to other oil n gas comp... high crude high tp.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
stonenut
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Posted by stonenut > 2015-02-17 12:48 | Report Abuse
Even aeroplane use fuel......... so many aeroplane now..