Posted by cashflow > 2018-11-29 15:59 | Report Abuse

Bleeding again

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2018-11-29 16:22 | Report Abuse

0.02

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2018-11-29 17:47 | Report Abuse

Result good?

Posted by TheMiddle > 2018-11-29 19:22 | Report Abuse

Much less impairment. Less bleeding. For current price, this result is positive but can do better!

Posted by adi85 > 2018-11-29 19:52 | Report Abuse

better result..loss decreases by 43%

Posted by apolloang > 2018-11-29 19:52 | Report Abuse

nta -0.31 no suspend yet?

Posted by cashflow > 2018-11-30 15:55 | Report Abuse

Am still here. Sleeping beauty counter. Waiting for news to light up

Posted by VV753838JJ > 2018-12-01 12:32 | Report Abuse

No more blood to bleed waiting Tapoh saja.Insider news is siapa ada blood donatelah

Posted by Jaden > 2018-12-03 12:42 | Report Abuse

Fair market value.. 0.01

Posted by VV753838JJ > 2018-12-03 14:11 | Report Abuse

Don't worry Sir cashflow can reverse take over with RM0.30 per share happy or not (insider news from kedai kopi)

Posted by cashflow > 2018-12-03 15:20 | Report Abuse

Most Oil and Gas counter cheering over US and China interim deal. Perisai yet to rocket.

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2018-12-03 16:17 | Report Abuse

0.02 already

Posted by Jaden > 2018-12-05 08:51 | Report Abuse

Hehe.. I think susah
Good morning all

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2018-12-05 09:01 | Report Abuse

When semua think susah, then u should greedy

Posted by Jaden > 2018-12-05 13:31 | Report Abuse

1 or 1.5 cent I start greedy..

Posted by Adam Cheong > 2018-12-05 18:11 | Report Abuse

http://www.perisai.biz/career/index.php
Hire so many staff recently. Any news?

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2018-12-05 20:31 | Report Abuse

Buy when others fear

Posted by commonsense > 2018-12-06 06:59 | Report Abuse

Hi ronaldo,

I think some investors are worried on the outcome of the negotiation with the company's debtors. There are several potential scenarios that investors are expecting:

1) The company succeeded in its negotiation. Debtors are willing to stretch the payment duration of the debt and the amount of the periodical payment to match something that is closer to Perisai cash flow from current projects. Even provide some discount to the debt. This is the best scenario, given that there will be no need to raised any capital. But debtors must be willing to get their money later than expected. I think this might be a bit of a wishful thinking on the part of equity investors. Probability is very low given the company cash flow is negative.

2) The company managed to find some middle ground with debtors. Debtors agree to some haircut but company must adhere to a new strict repayment schedule. In order to comply, company will need to raised capital most probably in the form of right issues. Probability is low in my opinion. For the debtors to agree to this, they will need to believe that Perisai will be able to improve in its operation in the near future which doesn't seems to be the case.

3) The company also managed to find some middle ground with debtors. Debtors agrees with management views that the outlook of the company is brighter in the future. So with time, the company cash flow will improve. However raising capital now to pay the debt (even after restructuring the schedule payment) proves to be difficult . So debtors, would agree to convert a big portion (if not all) of their debt to equity. Now in this scenario, equity holders does not have to come up with any capital but they will need to face potentially very dilutive effect post restructuring as there will be a lot of ordinary shares to be issued to the current debt holder. If you want to understand further you should try to do case studies on the many debt restructuring occurred back in 1998 (in Malaysia) or 2008 (US mostly). The most recent one that you can look at is Noble Group that actually happened early of this year.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-noble-group-debt/noble-group-wins-lifeline-as-shareholders-back-3-5-billion-debt-restructuring-idUSKCN1LC0ME

Probability is also low as i doubt anyone (investors and debtors included) believe that the company will be able to win any contracts in the near term.

4) The company and its debtors could not find any middle ground on the restructuring of the debt . In order to protect the company from the debtors and potential legal issues, management are forced to file for bankruptcy. This is the worst case for equity holders as they will be the last party to any proceeds of liquidated assets (please take note that most of the time during bankruptcy proceeding, assets are sold at a massive discount to the book value). I think this scenario has the highest probability to happen.

This is why most investors are dumping the stock . For distress assets in general, you actually could make a lot of money by buying the debt (which normally trade at a steep discount before finalisation of the restructuring plan) but it will take some time before you could see any returns. Those that bought Lehnmen Brothers debt in 2008 (at a very steep discount) only see returns this year.

https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3031791/debt-investors-set-for-pay-out-on-lehman-brothers-collapse

Buying the equity now is very risky as you have the potential to lose almost all of your money.

For those that are interested in diversifying their portfolio outside of oil and gas companies, i am recommending them to look at MBMR.

The company is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 5.6x PE (based on target FY18 PATAMI of RM145mil. 9m PATAMI is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.5x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year 4Q17. And FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of new Myvi and the launch of the new SUV in 1Q19.

Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions.

Hope Perisai will succeed in its negotiation with its debtors. You never know, they might end up with the first case scenario mentioned above.

Good luck

Posted by cashflow > 2018-12-10 11:15 | Report Abuse

My understanding that they should be disclosing the plan before end of this month. Did you hear the same? At least this was the info published earlier;
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/perisai-petroleums-creditors-approve-scheme-arrangement

Posted by cashflow > 2018-12-10 11:20 | Report Abuse

Perisai sell wall quite thin. I hope its a signal for uptrend.

Posted by VV753838JJ > 2018-12-10 14:47 | Report Abuse

Why wait some more quickly Cashflow buy all the sellers .Victory

Posted by cashflow > 2018-12-11 10:33 | Report Abuse

Haha. Cash flow no more cash. All flowing in toilet papers

Posted by VV753838JJ > 2018-12-12 13:20 | Report Abuse

Do not talk like that we small timer all treat you as our Big Brother .you better go and print more money

Posted by Harvard57 > 2018-12-12 13:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by cashflow > 2018-12-13 21:08 | Report Abuse

Perisai quiet. I hope they storm the market soon

Posted by commonsense > 2018-12-15 11:45 | Report Abuse

Hi cashflow,

Based on the article that you provided, it seems that they already agree in principal for most of the debt to be converted to equity (first they will need to consolidate the shares ). So basically it is the 3rd scenario based on my earlier post. Sorry, i missed out the arrangement that they had with the creditors back in June.

But in essence it would not be good for current shareholders, as they will be substantially dilution once the debt holders become equity holders. Current market cap is only RM25mil. But debt is RM1.25bil.

Assuming there is no haircut on the debt and all the debt amount will be converted to new shares.

Due to the low share price, company will decide to consolidate the share first. If not you will end up with redicoulously high shares outstanding and to low share price would just be hard to trade. At 2 sen for exemple every move of 0.5 sens (smallest movement possible in Bursa) is 25 % market cap movement. Example of consolidation: Every 20 shares consolidate to 1 new share. So from 2 sens the new shares will be 40 sens but share outstanding will fall to only 63mil instead of the current 1.26bil. Market cap is still RM25mil. If now you hold 20 lots of 2 sens, after consolidate you will have only 1 lot but at a price of 40 sens.

Then, the company will convert the RM1.25bil debt to new shares. So there will be 3.14bil new shares at 40 sens per share to be issued to the debt holders. Total new share outstanding will be 3.2bil shares. In terms of balance sheet, the debt level will reduce to zero and share capital increased by RM1.25 bil (evidently no cash is actually being injected). Shareholders equity increased from -RM289mil to RM960mil (at first this sound great). In terms of NTA per share it would be RM960mil / 3.2bil shares = 30 sens/ share. P/B will be 1.3x.

Upon conversion of all the debt the company P&L will actually improve substantially. 9m18 core PBT for example (if you exclude all the impairment) would have risen to RM14mil if there were no interest cost to be paid. Annualise PBT could potentially reach RM20mil. Let say given the big accumulated losses they have in their balance sheet, they could potentially not pay taxes for multiple years to come in the future. So PAT will also be RM20mil. Again this sounds good.

But here is the issue, these new investors (creditors turned to equity investors) have mostly the objective of recuperating what ever residual values that is possible. Their intention was never to be a long term equity investors in the company. So there is 2 ways for them to get back their money.

First sell the new shares that they will received. Given that the the new share price will actually trade at a premium to the new Book value (1.3x PB) some of them might be willing to go as low as 30 sen per share ( will then trade at 1x BV). However it all depends if there is demand for the stock since even at 30 sens per share, it will be trading at RM960mil market cap/ PAT of RM20mil or 48x PE.

Second way for new investors to get their money back is via dividend. Let say they decide to pay a 100% payout of Net profit. This translate to a payout of RM20 mil or RM0.0063 sens per share or a yield of 1.56% per annum. Unless they managed to increase the level of profit in the future, this might just be too slow (after 10 years you will only get 15% of the total debt outstanding). So they might start to try to dispose of any assets that they can find willing buyers. However the book value of the assets is still only 30 sens. In most cases distress company asset will actually be sold less than their book value.

Basically for current shareholders, it doesn't actually looks that great.

In distress companies you can make money by buying the distressed debt from the current creditors (most of them will be willing to sell it at a steep discount). Its actually hard to make money from buying equity. That being said it all depends on the restructuring negotiation between Perisai and its creditors. The example that i gave above is just a plain vanilla example. Most of the time companies need to give incentives to creditors to accept their restructuring/ recapitalization plans. It could be that the new shares to creditors would be listed at a discount (bad for equity shareholders because it would just means more dilution).

As of 7th Dec there was still no update on the restructuring plan.

Good luck.

Posted by TheMiddle > 2018-12-17 16:41 | Report Abuse

commonsense: u have good analyse in the reg. plan. The consolidation should be 1:2 , i.e. every 2 ordinary shares into 1 share.

Posted by adi85 > 2018-12-19 13:18 | Report Abuse

buy..buy..very cheap..

Posted by carilembu > 2018-12-19 14:05 | Report Abuse

WOW! From 1.71 in Jan 2014 to 0.0015 now!! Imagine those still holding from above RM 1 now hugh loss

Posted by Jaden > 2018-12-21 13:21 | Report Abuse

Very dangerous.. big boss gado with people

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2018-12-21 13:58 | Report Abuse

what happens

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-02 14:10 | Report Abuse

5 more months for Perisai to submit its plans. We should see stock activity increasing in couple of weeks.

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2019-01-02 14:21 | Report Abuse

I thought submit already

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2019-01-02 17:42 | Report Abuse

Already submitted on 1/8/18

Posted by adi85 > 2019-01-02 19:26 | Report Abuse

buy!!very cheap now..you cannot get any cheaper..

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-03 11:05 | Report Abuse

Agreed. Let’s hope for recovery soo.

Posted by sasuke > 2019-01-03 12:00 | Report Abuse

bought 0.66 3 4 years ago

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2019-01-03 12:49 | Report Abuse

Hope back to 0.66 in 3 4 yrs

Posted by SpicyMcDeluxe > 2019-01-03 12:51 | Report Abuse

Sad

Posted by SpicyMcDeluxe > 2019-01-03 12:51 | Report Abuse

Wass holding at 0.070 a year ago and decided to cut loss at 0.040, will revisit when they have approved its plan, stay strong guys

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-04 08:47 | Report Abuse

Perisai still have active assets worth millions on liquidation if they had to generate cash

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-04 14:56 | Report Abuse

All Oil and Gas stocks are retracing from their lowest point. Time to catch the train. Good luck boys

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2019-01-04 15:39 | Report Abuse

omg

Posted by HuatlaiOnglai > 2019-01-06 18:32 | Report Abuse

Ada olang untung busat!

Posted by ronaldolow5479 > 2019-01-06 18:53 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow fly

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-07 09:27 | Report Abuse

Fly soon

Posted by Fortune888 > 2019-01-07 10:02 | Report Abuse

2.5sen kena sapu..

Posted by Fortune888 > 2019-01-07 10:05 | Report Abuse

Who is the fella got the steel ball to sapu ?

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-07 10:46 | Report Abuse

Perisai is coming back. Am optimistic it will go beyond 0.05

Posted by cashflow > 2019-01-07 10:56 | Report Abuse

Looks like insider knows Q4 results may look good and buying the low. Let's see how this counter may rock in due course