congrats those who chased after result out, ouch... very painful :D 1st time below RM0.40 since august !, the bottom still far from over yet. nightmare, sleepless night, good luck to those still holding
Looking to $ASIAPLY / 0105 (ASIA POLY HOLDINGS BERHAD) QR.
I made a simple calculation on what should be the price of Asiaply in the next QR
Bear Case: I Made an assumption that q4 PAT will be the same with q3. With the current P/E ratio the price of Asiaply will be around RM0.59
This calculation has set aside additional income of RM5,88M cash in hand and 64M ordinary shares of $DOLPHIN / 5265 (DOLPHIN INTERNATIONAL BERHAD) from the disposal of Uncle Don to the Dolphin Bhd
Moreover, i also didn't take the fact that there will be another production line kicks in. Whereas it is believed to fulfill the demand coming from both US and Europe continents. As a result, there will be greater efficiency and deduction in their production cost
$ASIAPLY / 0105 (ASIA POLY HOLDINGS BERHAD) - Record quarterly revenue and best quarterly earnings in more than a decade. The result confirms the transformation of fortune for the company.
ASIAPLY reports a 290% and 370% increase in earnings YoY and QoQ, on the back of 1) higher demand from the local and export markets 2) higher average selling price 3) lower material cost and 4) better factory utilisation rate.
Furthermore, on the acrylic demand, the company received strong sales from NEW customers in USA and Europe market, gaining access to the one of the world largest acrylic consumer market.
The company also commented: "The management is confident that FY2020 will be a strong growth year for the Group." Positive all around.
~~~
In my opinion, ASIAPLY Q3 2020 is the start and the base of the "good times", confirming the transformation of fortune for the company due to the pandemic. Acrylic sheet had become one of the hottest commodities from the pandemic as it is now an important tool to get out from the global lock down. It can be a barrier to adhere to social distancing measures, a prevention of spreading respiratory droplets and a key material for face masks.
My understanding from AGM, investor briefings & ET interivew, ASIAPLY is currently running at close to full capacity of 800 MT per month, orderbook is filled going into 2021 and MMA price was still low in early September. Third line will be ready in Q3 2021 and will double capacity to 1600 MT a month.
A Very simple back of napkin calculation for FY 2021, taking RM4m net of this quarter as a base, and assuming full capacity of new capacity in 2H 2021 and 20% increment in quarterly earnings due to economies of scale once new capacity is in, FY 2021 net profit for the company could be roughly around RM26m. At current market price, ASIAPLY is trading at a mere 11x forward PE.
~~~
The big question, as @wsoh rightly pointed out, is whether the demand for acrylic sheet is here to stay post COVID & how does that affect the company?
In my opinion, of course the spike in demand will eventually die down, but what's to note is that ASIAPLY was finally able to break into the US market, the biggest consumer of acrylic sheet pre-COVID, a market which consume billions of ringgit on the commodity annually.
ASIAPLY market share as a manufacturer of acrylic sheet is miniscule (less than 1%) in that context. What COVID19 had done in recent time is that they have given themselves a chance to build relationship and get a small piece of the pie from the big boys. Long may this lasts. Furthermore there was a study that says:
"Acrylic sheets have a high concentration. The top six companies account for more than 45.92% of market share. Evonik, Mitsubishi Rayon, Altuglas (Arkema), Plaskolite, Taixing Donchamp and Polycasa are the tycoons of acrylic sheets. Evonik is the largest manufacturer, with the market share of 14.60%."
Perhaps Asiapoly can be a new alternative to the biggest manufacturers. Afterall, the company had recently added RM40m cash for m&a. Is that bullet to be used to buy some regional acrylic players?
Time will tell. Best to continue hold and monitor ASIAPLY over the next few quarters.
Good qr also badly sell down...useless tricky trapped counter ...Roger your team hate this counter keep selling down to what price? Ppl suffering loss u guys happy why?
Price down is the opportunity to collect. Ultimately intrinsic value will tell. Instead of listening or buying speculative or rumour counters, at this highly uncertainty and fluctuating moment, better stick to and invest in solid , high growth counters , eg Asia poly
if u cant produce writing like lau9639 , supporting with the facts and figure then stop spamming . u can say this share worth 0.05 only , then shoot yr reasoning currently market was bad , discount ticket everywhere
According to the Executive Chairman Datuk Yeo Boon Leong : "Looking ahead, we are confident that FY20 will be a strong growth year for the Group," he said in a statement.
The 3Q result has brought the Group's 9-month cumulative quarter revenue and net profit to RM57.29 million and RM4.70 million respectively, as compared to RM54.64 million and RM6.64 million net loss posted same period last year.
This puts APH on track to return to the green in FY20 after posting losses in the previous 2 years.
According to a filing with Bursa Malaysia, APH has seen a sharp spike in orders from new customers in USA and Europe.
Export sales reportedly grew 2,583 per cent to RM10.25 million compared to only RM0.38 million in the 3Q last year.
Given that both of APH's production lines are currently running at full capacity, the group plans to add a third production line by June 2021.
The third production line, which is expected to be ready by September 2021, will effectively increase APH's manufacturing capacity to 1,600 tonnes per month.
The group is currently running at a maximum capacity of 800 tonnes per month through two production lines out of its facility in Klang.
APH is the only listed Malaysian manufacturer of cast acrylic sheets.
Cast acrylic sheets are used widely in sanitary wares, signage and displays, architectural designs, interior design, automotive and transportation, and other applications.
Other applications include food, medical, industrial equipment, and sports. "Looking ahead, we are confident that FY20 will be a strong growth year for the Group," he said in a statement.
Malaysia gloves makers, due to covid, by far , is the world biggest! Asia poly , who knows, after its 40 millions private placement and the conversion of preference shares and warrants, is cash rich, may use the fund for merger and acquisitions, to kickstart the consolidation of local acrylic industry ! Who knows, we may witness the birth of the biggest acrylic manufacturer in Asia , as the name implied!
By the time, every year big Dividend is small issue! Agreed?
@lau9639 u are too optimistic, everyday hard sell. No way Asiapoly can become biggest acrylic sheet manufacturer in Asia. Below list of Arcylic sheet manufacturers in Asia for reference:- Evonik Mitsubishi Rayon Altuglas (Arkema) Polycasa Plaskolite Taixing Donchamp Unigel Group Jiangxi Oulida Jumei Jiushixing Guang Shun Plastic Shen Chuen Acrylic Raychung Acrylic Asia Poly Elastin GARY Acrylic Xishun
dont forget additional 36mil new share to be listed btw now to 15 december, if they dont sell or convert asiaply-wa, the stock will become rubbish. Be careful of he 36mil new share sell down, easily bring asiaply below 30c by next month
The intrinsic value based on the recent spike of sales and profit is only about RM0.20. The Support line of 0.38 is broken, next strong support line is at RM0.30. Might go in around 0.30. Asiaply having damn high PE!!!
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roger3210
1,492 posts
Posted by roger3210 > 2020-10-30 16:29 | Report Abuse
roger got few billions, he wan to sapu all from you all
lol