Posted by Frank Soweto > 2013-10-23 05:01 | Report Abuse

more to come? :)
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nexttrade/38976.jsp

Posted by anthonylow > 2013-10-23 06:47 | Report Abuse

FIBON 我来辽。

Posted by 1Bull > 2013-10-23 07:15 | Report Abuse

miss the boat, any chance to buy after retrace?

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-10-23 20:51 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, you have made a splendid selection in including Fibon on 5th August as one of your stock picks in the challenge. From a price of 33 sen it has gone up to a high of 56 sen today, an increase in 23 sen or almost 70% in just a matter of two and a half month ! What a magnificent performance ! And after having gone up, now only others are noticing it. like in Nexttrade where it is a forecasting a target price of 70 sen, Why now only realize it is a gem. That's the wonder of FA which TA cannot do. Like you say, using FA will give a higher return over the long term but in the case of Fibon, it's really amazing, In terms of percentage returns (if extrapolated over a year), it's even better than than Datasonic and Pintaras. Well done !. and not forgetting house who highlighted this gem 1

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-24 07:41 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > Oct 22, 2013 04:41 PM | Report Abuse
BUY GENTING :
Hi KC Chong : yesterday you said you are interested on one of the counter which I coincidentally have in my portfolio. In conjunction to this, I would recommend you to look at Genting. If you are not interested on it, I would like to hear your reason too.
Hi All the good friends or Lau Jiau(Old Birds) : Please kindly drop your comments on Genting too.
I can talk more in weekend.

I truly believe Genting, a cash cow with great moat, is a great company to invest in. There are plenty of investment banks following this company and plenty of writeup about it. There is no where I can get near to what they have in term of information, knowledge of the industry, and their ability to analyze and value this conglomerate. I believe they have a specialist analyst in this gaming industry alone.

Posted by CityTrader > 2013-10-24 08:14 | Report Abuse

Elliott 5wave sequence has rules n guidelines that must not b neglected too. So far it s very difficult to count in real life. Not easy!

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-26 20:08 | Report Abuse

KC Chong 大佬: I am coming to your house inviting you to visit Wellcall. 一起走过的日子.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-10-26 23:50 | Report Abuse

You are calling a lau jiau for dinner is it?
Lol

Posted by tonylim > 2013-10-26 23:53 | Report Abuse

Kcchong just an update. I have since sold fibon to a trickle. Keeping a small qty for unknown reasons. . Arr also been busy.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-10-26 23:55 | Report Abuse

Don't tell me you have not sold any yet

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-27 04:08 | Report Abuse

Tony, notice I never talk about trading. I only talked about fundamentals, financial statement analysis and interpretations, valuation and margin of safety. Occasionally stock price and return are mentioned when provoked.

I am a poor trader.

Posted by tonylim > 2013-10-27 17:06 | Report Abuse

Ok la. I dont meant to provoke you just a teaser. They called it test watrr at time

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-10-28 16:15 | Report Abuse

Wow...

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-10-28 16:18 | Report Abuse

no sound no sound climb so high...

Posted by tonylim > 2013-10-28 16:21 | Report Abuse

LOL

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-10-28 16:23 | Report Abuse

if got sound, feel very high

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-10-28 16:26 | Report Abuse

unbelievable !

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-10-28 16:27 | Report Abuse

big hole...so no sound...hehe

Posted by tonylim > 2013-10-28 16:31 | Report Abuse

somebody here selling

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-28 16:36 | Report Abuse

Don't know when Kenanga or TA will revise their target price of Fibon say with a revised PE of 12.54 instead of 7.6.


10/09/2013 0.325 0.40 +0.075 (23.08%) TRADING BUY KENANGA Price Target News
15/08/2013 0.38 0.37 -0.01 (2.63%) SELL TA Price Target News

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-28 16:37 | Report Abuse

CAR :
Hi KC Chong 大佬: I would appreciate if you can be patient(as I am slow) and willingly to guide me further on the below :

1)Now I know how to calculate CAR. Thks.

Q1 : After calculating CAR of each transaction for the last 20 years, can I average CAR of all trx to get grand CAR? Example trx #1(hold for 3.55 yrs) : CAR-11.9%, trx 2(hold for 1.68 yrsr):CAR+28.8%, trx#3(hold for 0.49yrs):CAR -62.8%. Average Grand CAR-15.3%.

Q2: Very short holding period : GTronic, Bought on 16Jan06 @RM1587 and sold on 20Jan06@RM1662. No of Year=0.01096. CAR=6600%. If I include this 6600% into the calculation of grand average (as Q1 above), the grand average is distorted. How should I deal with this?

Q3: Very low denominator (分母) : Notion WB(free, I assigned RM1 to it), 27Apr12-28Oct13: No of Year=1.50. CAR=10434%. Same as (as Q2 above), if I include this 10434% into the calculation of grand average (as Q1), the grand average is distorted. How should I deal with this?

Q4: Same case on bonus share which I did not apportion back to the mother shares thus the purchase cost of the free bonus is assigned RM1 and CAR is in thousand. How should I deal with this?

Thank you

Posted by wm83 > 2013-10-28 16:50 | Report Abuse

wow...

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-10-28 16:54 | Report Abuse

kc, what is your TP ?

Posted by JTFX > 2013-10-28 16:57 | Report Abuse

pow wow..33 to 60..almost 100% in less than 2 months..kudos KCC..

Posted by 9696 > 2013-10-28 17:04 | Report Abuse

Kcchong.bravo

Posted by CityTrader > 2013-10-28 17:09 | Report Abuse

Congrats kcchongz,, after forming the bullish pattern, i didnt jump in bcos no more fund available.. So how many ranges u got in NZ?? Any plan to add one more after the surge of Fibon,, hehehe,,

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-10-28 17:11 | Report Abuse

kc, i think your stock pick challenge portfolio is moving up very nicely today... haha

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-10-28 17:13 | Report Abuse

with the money, kc can buy 1000 cows in nz and everyday grab 1000 breasts...hehe

Posted by CityTrader > 2013-10-28 17:38 | Report Abuse

FreeThink, a cow i think got 4 breats so 1,000x4=4,000 breats everyday.. harrassment men!!!

Posted by FreeThink > 2013-10-28 17:45 | Report Abuse

Haha, almost can beat last times's china emperor...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-28 17:49 | Report Abuse

Posted by bsngpg > Oct 28, 2013 04:37 PM | Report Abuse

CAR :
Hi KC Chong 大佬: I would appreciate if you can be patient(as I am slow) and willingly to guide me further on the below :

1)Now I know how to calculate CAR. Thks.

Q1 : After calculating CAR of each transaction for the last 20 years, can I average CAR of all trx to get grand CAR? Example trx #1(hold for 3.55 yrs) : CAR-11.9%, trx 2(hold for 1.68 yrsr):CAR+28.8%, trx#3(hold for 0.49yrs):CAR -62.8%. Average Grand CAR-15.3%.

NO, YOU CANNOT AVERAGE THE CAR UNLESS ALL YOUR STOCKS ARE OF EQUAL WEIGHTING. GET THE ABSOLUTE QUANTUM OF EACH STOCK FOR EACH PERIOD, ADD THEM ALL UP FOR EACH PERIOD, AND THEN DO THE CAR AS NORMAL WITH THE TOTAL AMOUNT FOR EACH PERIOD.

Q2: Very short holding period : GTronic, Bought on 16Jan06 @RM1587 and sold on 20Jan06@RM1662. No of Year=0.01096. CAR=6600%. If I include this 6600% into the calculation of grand average (as Q1 above), the grand average is distorted. How should I deal with this?

THAT IS WHY YOU CANNOT USE THE AVERAGE UNLESS THE WEIGHTING OF EACH STOCK IS THE SAME. AND ALSO FOR SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH RETURN AND IF YOU ANNUALIZED (OR CAR IT), IT GIVES YOU A DISTORTED INDIVIDUAL RESULT TOO. THIS IS BECAUSE YOU CAN'T GET THE SAME ABNORMAL RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

Q3: Very low denominator (分母) : Notion WB(free, I assigned RM1 to it), 27Apr12-28Oct13: No of Year=1.50. CAR=10434%. Same as (as Q2 above), if I include this 10434% into the calculation of grand average (as Q1), the grand average is distorted. How should I deal with this?

SAME AS ABOVE, YOU CANNOT AVERAGE THE CARS. YOU SHOULD ALSO IGNORE THE ABNORMAL ANNUALIZED SHORT PERIOD RETURN.

Q4: Same case on bonus share which I did not apportion back to the mother shares thus the purchase cost of the free bonus is assigned RM1 and CAR is in thousand. How should I deal with this?

SAME ANSWER. FREE BONUS IS FREE, NO COST. FOR EXAMPLE IF YOU BUY 2000 SHARES OF STOCK A AT RM1, AND YOU GET ONE BONUS FOR TWO STOCKS HOLD, YOU COST OF THE 3000 SHARES NOW IS 2000/3000, OR 0.67 PER SHARE.

Thank you

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-28 17:53 | Report Abuse

Just reiterate that the pick of Fibon is by houseofordos. I just wrote up the analysis. I must thank him too. I must also thank him for alerting Hexza to me a few days ago. Hope house you also make money from Hexza.

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-28 18:25 | Report Abuse

Speculation or Fundamental ?

Hi KC Chong 大佬 : First, I need to say that I totally do not comment with sour grape mentality at all.

I thought you will reiterate that Value Investor actually does not want to see this kind of way abnormal return at so short period of time. It should be caused by speculation more than fundamental business growth or discovery by Value Community. Worst still is that speculation spoils good name of the company. Value Investors do not like this. Am I right?

All大佬: sorry to pour cold water but it is more of opinion with good intention instead of sour grade mentality. I SINCERELY congratulate you and join your joys of the good money earned. After all, we are in a friendly group, aren’t we ?

CONGRATULATION $$$$$$

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-28 18:27 | Report Abuse

Hi KC Chong 大佬 : Thanks for your commentS on CAR. I agreed with you and will ask more questions later on.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-28 18:34 | Report Abuse

Who doesn't want abnormal return whether it is short term or long term?

Speculation for Fibon? I don't know but what is your basis of saying so? Just because you think the directors do not have a string of qualifications behind their names? Or is it Fibon's earnings is little or its assets or cash flows are not justifiable for its price now?

For your information, Warren Buffet does not have any MBA or PHD behind his names. People like Steve Job, Bill Gate, Mark Zuckerberg do not even have a basic degree.

I have done thorough analysis on Fibon in my pick. Do you have anything comments which you think my analysis is wrong fatally?

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-10-28 18:44 | Report Abuse

i believe Warren has a masters degree, but that's beside the point! :)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-28 18:47 | Report Abuse

The other KC, thanks for the correction. Warren Buffet may have a master, but the principle he uses in investment is very basic which everybody can use, provided he has the discipline.

What I mean is that the management of a company needs not have high academic qualifications. All I want for the quality of management is credibility, candid, shareholders focus, concentrate on doing the business rather than speculating the share price of the company.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-10-28 18:51 | Report Abuse

Most of the professors in Finance are just wage earners, earning enough but not rich. This is because they all believe in the efficient market hypothesis fervently. Hence they just invest in index funds, ETF and earn slightly below market return.

I know this for sure.

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-10-28 18:57 | Report Abuse

Wall Street is the only place that people ride to in a Rolls Royce to get advice from those who take the subway.
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/w/warren_buffett.html#IQ3tf6uU3LzgLR7M.99

Posted by KClow > 2013-10-28 19:01 | Report Abuse

the reason why that happens in wall street is because.. money can only be made with three ways..
steal it marry into it or inherit it..
that is why those people use the subways..
PENIS stock lovers are those dreamers who wish they can become rich one day.. LOL..
KCLOH u are sad for this la.. u are poor no matter what u say..

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-10-28 19:02 | Report Abuse

that quote didn't come from me, dumbo. i even gave the source! who is a sad case now? LOL

Posted by KClow > 2013-10-28 19:03 | Report Abuse

and of course money comes a few other ways with probability.. like winning the lottery and WARREN BLUFFAT way... but nonetheless money is all in the mind..

Posted by KClow > 2013-10-28 19:04 | Report Abuse

remember little people.. money comes in 3 ways only..

1. marry it
2. steal it
3. inherit it..
penis stocks dont make u rich ever. one downturn and u are wiped out for ever and ever ever and ever.. LOL

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-10-28 19:04 | Report Abuse

Posted by KClow > Oct 28, 2013 07:01 PM | Report Abuse
the reason why that happens in wall street is because.. money can only be made with three ways..
steal it marry into it or inherit it..

now i know your level of thinking! LOL

Posted by KClow > 2013-10-28 19:05 | Report Abuse

but for KCLOH to quote it is pathetic.. speak heaps about how low u are ... sadistic..

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-10-28 19:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by kcchongnz > Oct 28, 2013 05:53 PM | Report Abuse

Just reiterate that the pick of Fibon is by houseofordos. I just wrote up the analysis. I must thank him too. I must also thank him for alerting Hexza to me a few days ago. Hope house you also make money from Hexza.

KC, regarding Hexza, very regret that I did not buy at the time I recommended to you.. was hoping to get a few sen cheaper... a bit late now

Posted by KC Loh > 2013-10-28 19:06 | Report Abuse

but you chose that surname low! LOL

Posted by KClow > 2013-10-28 19:06 | Report Abuse

unless u talking about the petty cash KCLOH has.. LOL.. like i said sadistic poor little people.. LOL.. anyhow i am wasting my time again.. bye

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-28 19:13 | Report Abuse

Discussion :
Hi KC Chong 大佬:
You said "Who doesn't want abnormal return whether it is short term or long term?"

I said : "All people like extra return but not abnormal return especially this one way abnormal in my definition. I am not a hypocrite here as you knew I said before I were in dilemma in high return on Zhulian and GTronic albeit their hikes are more normal than Fibon.

But now we are talking about Value Investment which means we value company through formal methods and expect normal return or more than normal but not abnormal. Can a Healthy and High Value Company shots up to almost 100% in 2-3 months? When something way abnormal, it does not meet the definition of fundamental and healthy already. "

What do you think ?

Posted by bsngpg > 2013-10-28 19:15 | Report Abuse

Hi KC CHong 大佬:
You said :"Speculation for Fibon? I don't know but what is your basis of saying so?"

My basic is that fundamental and health growth should not be ~100% in 2-3 months.

Do you agree ?