Sometimes we do get into kind of a smart thinking, fantastic thinking mode, and we somehow start believing that we could sell 'take profit' at a certain so called 'peak price' during a certain period, and then buy back in at a lower price.
But it ain't that easy in actuality. Becos there is also the other risk that the stock moves up significantly during precisely the time that you were temporarily out.
So, you could actually end up missing a substantial part of the upward ride. So, it can be quite a tough call, really.
This morning yamcha with a fren, talk about palm oil stock. He told me investor are stupid, palm oil FFB rised from 300-400 to 500-600, just 30-40% only, but many palm oil counter share price go up 80-100%, so he think market is over price d.
I told him, you cannot look at this way, your comparison is wrong.
First, you need to look at the Gross profit per tonnes. Assume previous FFB selling price was RM350 per tonnes, and cost per tonnes is RM330, so mean Gross Profit is RM20 per tonnes.
But now, when selling price increase to RM500 per tonnes, and your cost is remain RM330 per tonnes, than mean your profit will be RM170 per tonnes.
From RM20 profit to RM170 profit, it is 800% increased. That mean, if the plantation company can maintain same production and same costing, its profit will increased 8 times.
If the company previous can make RM10mil per quarter previously (i..e EPS 1sen), now the company will make RM80mil per quarter (i.e EPS 8 sen).
So, do you still think now the share price increase 80% -100% is consider over-priced?
He keep quiet after I told him this.
Frankly speaking, I am not expected share price will go up 8 times. But, as long as palm oil price can sustain at current level, those plantation counter PAT will increase at least 2-3 times minimum, so share price will follow up 2-3 times.
Previously, TDM was price around RM0.80++, so now only RM0.31, why you worry?
No need to be wasting too much time trying to convince a naysayer, a doubting thomas or an idiot, to come around to your own line of thinking, AlBukhary. Even worse, an idiot who is dead certain beyond all doubt that he is an investing genius. It would only be an absolutely pointless exercise in complete futility.
Just save your own mind & your own focus for maximising the profit on your own investments. What they want to believe or not believe is of absolute zero relevance or importance to your own investing interest. Just remember that.
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Posted by WealthSoWonderful > 2019-12-16 20:06 | Report Abuse
Well done, TDM.