Might not be stronger than last time's peak IMO as:- 1) smart money started to flow into TG and Supermax due to affordable and leader of the sector. 2) historically, PE will be traded at below normal average for pandemic period. PE of 10-15x for FY21 is a fair value, which estimated at below RM5, unless people valuate the stock based on the most peak period like 2HFY21+1HFY22.
Anyhow, current price with PE(TTM) below 30 still a bargain if reversal is confirmed.
company has good fundamental. their next QR should be stronger with rising ASP. demand is still there. I think tomorrow is the start of the next bull run
I think a lotta folks will be watching Top Glove’s QR result closely this coming Thurs. Specifically TG’s Q-on-Q comparison. The QoQ result will most likely affect all other glove counters’ investors/traders reaction. I don’t know if they’ll announce after 5pm Thurs or during the day so either Thurs or Fri will be influential for all glove counter investors/traders imho
Profit taking by big local institutional funds is “business”. They trade on counters where they are major shareholders. They have a system where they bought a tranche this-date and they sell on that-date and it keeps on going and going and going. Retailers can’t keep up bcoz retailers cannot afford to. It’s just the way it is
They maintain Overweight rating... And now popularly in most news, many have agreed with us the belief that glove demand will continue even with availability of vaccine... One vaccine jap = one pair glove demand...
Indonesia: Chinese vaccine trial volunteer gets virus Whether volunteer received potential vaccine or placebo remains unknown, says clinical trial team leader Nicky Aulia Widadio | 11.09.2020 Indonesia: Chinese vaccine trial volunteer gets virus
JAKARTA
A clinical trial volunteer for a Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidate in Indonesia tested positive for the virus, said the trial team leader on Friday.
The vaccine is developed by a Chinese company, Sinovac Biotech, and imported to the country by the state-owned Bio Farma.
Kusnandi Rusmil, the head of the trial and research team from Padjadjaran University, said in a statement that the infected volunteer has been put in isolation under strict supervision.
"After nine days, the volunteer’s condition seems to be good," said Rusmil, without specifying the volunteer’s gender.
He said the volunteer, after receiving the first injection for the trial, traveled out of town.
“The volunteer was declared healthy upon returning from the trip and then received the second injection,” said Rusmil.
However, he added, due to their travel history, the volunteer was required to take COVID-19 test by the local health authority and tested positive for the virus.
Rusmil said he was unable to confirm whether the volunteer was injected with a potential vaccine or a placebo.
“As we conduct the trials under blind observer principle, we cannot identify who gets the vaccine and who gets the placebo,” he added.
Volunteers who were injected with placebo would be compared to those who were injected with the potential vaccine to determine its capability to build immunity.
Rusmil went on to say that the volunteers’ immunity against the virus would be formed after the second injection.
"Clinical trial volunteers will still have their health monitored for six months after the last injection," he said.
The team is conducting Phase 3 of the clinical trials, which started in early August to last six months.
At least 450 volunteers have been injected with a potential vaccine or placebo. 13/09/2020 9:10 PM X supermxmx Chinapress..... claims thousands have taken the vaccine..... actually they are all their military personnels..... All military personnels have to abide orders from the gov.... they have NO choice...... China have more 1 million military personnel and yet they DUN dare to vaccinated all of them...... WHY??????
GUYS I THINK THERE IS NEVER GGOING TO HAVE A VACCINE LIKE SARS...ppl will keep living and things go on....trust me...been in hk when sars was there...nothing happened...go check on google...
Remember to this day :WHO has not approved any vaccines for use worldwide. As we currently see on the world infection cases took turn for worst the world top scientists were still baffled by the voracity of the virus and there are no guarantees the purported vaccines would work.Vaccines searched were going at phenomenal speed and this is more of a firefighting!
guys please ignore kyy d posts. He is now a swing trader on margin. No doubt he helped all of us earn money but now we gotta trust ourselves. Cant just throw money and pt money when he says so. i will say we have to put money on both comfort and supermax
Dialling back to the basics Diving into sustainable fair values following two bumper years Recent volatility in sector share prices despite no change in fundamentals has led us to question if investors are now looking beyond two years of stellar earnings growth. Valuations are undoubtedly attractive across glove-makers, in our view, at single-digit PEs pegged to peak 12-month forward earnings, further backed by c.5%-9% dividend yields. However, we aim to provide a yardstick for investors by capturing both the value of the short-term boom period coupled with the long-term value from higher, sustainable earnings. This exercise still yields upside potential for glove stocks from current share prices, further affirming our Overweight stance on the sector.
Tying in our base case and timeline >The mass availability of an effective Covid-19 vaccine, especially in the glove-makers key US market, will ndeniably spell the end of the sector’s hyper-normal era. >Our base case assumes a mass vaccination by mid-2021, and that the vaccination process coupled with restocking activity will sustain utilisation rates. >Our near-term ASPs therefore continue to price-in an uptrend up until mid-2021 where we expect price-leader, Top Glove’s ASPs to converge with that of peers Hartalega and Kossan. We subsequently expect the three glove makers to see the gradual normalization of their ASPs at c.US$50/1,000 pcs for nitrile gloves by end-2021. >The key risk to our base case is potential oversupply from new entrants, although see this as unlikely given constraints in synthetic latex raw materials, whereby we estimate the global raw material supply to just be sufficient to meet the current demand of the major glove players (Figure 5).
End-users will likely be conditioned-to higher ASPs in two years >A major conundrum amongst investors is on where ASPs will land post-demand normalisation which we expect to be in mid-2022. >We take the view price stickiness will lead to longer-term nitrile ASPs of c.US$30/1,000pcs, and latex ASPs to average at US$22/1,000 pcs. This translates to a 35%/15% higher sustainable increase versus pre-Covid-19 levels. >Inelastic glove demand coupled with a limited number of players controlling the lion’s share of global glove capacity are prime factors for higher sustainable ASPs. After 2-3 years of hyper-normal ASPs, end-users will have been conditioned for high ASPs, in our view, while there is limited incentive for manufacturers or distributors to lower the prices in quick succession due to inelastic demand.
Valuing the short-term boom while considering the longer-term earnings base >The glove mania has split investors along two camps with one arguing it is unreasonable for the sector trades at single-to-low double-digit forward 12-month multiples while the second argues it is unrealistic to pay a mean multiple on peak forward earnings which are unsustainable. Both views have merits. >With market expectations of supernormal profits increasingly being priced-in, it is necessary to value the sector from the perspective of a long-term strategic investor, where we still see significant value being derived on a medium-term horizon. >Our revised valuation methodology discounts at the cost of equity the FCFE during the boom period (FY20-23) and the target market cap at the end of the boom period by employing a target PE multiple on sustainable earnings and ASPs.
Maintain BUY ratings post-earnings revisions and valuation methodology changes >Hartalega: We forecast FY21/22/23 (Mar) NP of RM3.1/RM4.7/RM2.0bn (+5.6x/+50%/-56% YoY). We lower our target price from RM25 to RM20 implying an FY22CL PE of 15x and a 21CL yield of c.7%. >Top Glove: We forecast FY20/21/22 (Aug) NP at RM1.8/RM11.2/RM4.2bn (+64%/+5.2x/-63% YoY). We lift our target price from RM9.33 to RM10.00 (bonus adjusted), implying a FY21CL PE of 7x and a 21CL yield of 9%. >Kossan Rubber: We forecast FY20/21/22 (Dec) NP of RM758m/RM2.5bn/RM830m (+2.4x/+2.3x/-67% YoY). We lower our target price from RM17.40 to RM16.10 implying a FY21CL PE of 8x and a 21CL yield of c.5%.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
supermxmx
417 posts
Posted by supermxmx > 2020-09-13 12:30 | Report Abuse
The Star and TheEDGE are already systematically propagating BUY !!!!!!!!! I think its time for ggggloves to go UP UP UP............