Regarding the coke price, think short selling already reduced and absorbed and stabilised around 2180 - 2200 level, if tomorrow can stand above 2200, this will be good for coke price, as this will back to uptrend mode.
To me, as long price stand above 2,000 level, this coming qtr results will be better.
Above info that had showed what I shared this few days: - Sep price adjusted up by RMB100 per tonne, I think in 2nd half of Sep or early of Oct, there will another price upward adjustment, maybe RMB100 - Coal adj. up RMB50 whereby Coke adj up RMB100, see the positive difference. - Another I had highlighted before Shandong Coke supplies is limited, so dont think production capacity will be cut and most likely will be maintain around 50%. To me, China will focus on strict production cut on Beijing Tianjin and Hebei area while Shandong might remain the same production capacity during winter time. - Shandong coke supplier Sep price is around 2250-2310, I think next qtr due to shortage and major construction work like 金九银十 which mean Sep-Oct lot of construction work will begin and this will boost the coke price. Next qtr estimate will be another 10% increase and mostly likely around 2,400-2,600 level for coke price.
September is going to end soon, what will be Oct Target price, think that time will around 40-50 cents.
hstha future and current market price difference is become smaller, I think tomorrow there will be rebound if not day after tomorrow. Trend will be changed to upward trend.
China's steel, iron ore fall for third session on weak demand
Environmental inspections curb both supply and demand for steel
* Beijing to halt construction projects in winter
* Coking coal, coke plunge over 6 percent
BEIJING, Sept 18 (Reuters) - China's steel rebar futures fell for a third straight session on Monday, dragging raw materials down, on continued worries about waning demand amid environmental inspections.
"Steel market is under pressure despite the outlook of tight supply during the coming autumn and winter season amid environmental inspections," Orient Futures analysts said in a note.
"However, the inspection is a double-edged sword that will curb both supply and demand sides. What the market worries the most is waning demand from the downstream sectors."
China's capital, Beijing, said over the weekend that it will suspend construction of major public projects, including housing demolition and road projects, in the city this winter to improve its air quality. The ban will be effective from Nov. 15 to March 15. The most-active construction steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were down 1.5 percent at 3,762 yuan ($574.59) a tonne, after touching their lowest in nearly four weeks at 3,742 yuan earlier in the day.
Spot rebar prices fell 0.3 percent to 4,361 yuan a tonne on Friday, according to data on the website of Mysteel consultancy.
Rebar stockpiles of Chinese traders had risen 118,400 tonnes to 4.72 million tonnes by Friday, data from Mysteel showed.
The most-traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped 1.6 percent to 501.5 yuan a tonne, despite falling inventories at the ports.
Inventories of imported iron ore at ports reduced 1.29 million tonnes from a week earlier to 132.61 million tonnes by Friday, Mysteel data showed, as mills' appetite for high-grade iron ore remains strong.
"Restocking demand for raw materials at mills is firm at this moment despite Beijing's curb on production. However, the expectation of waning demand in near future adds pressure on iron ore prices," said Orient Futures analysts.
Prices for raw fuel materials also plunged on Monday. The January coking coal contract fell 6.3 percent to 1,272.5 yuan a tonne. Coke futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange tumbled 6.7 percent to 2,172 yuan a tonne.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Winningpost
397 posts
Posted by Winningpost > 2017-09-18 23:32 | Report Abuse
I am now in the bandwagon of Huaan...
And I think it's on the way up and up.....