Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-16 18:48 | Report Abuse

Wait for selling pressure over first .... agreed they can sell their tickets as it is their own rights ..... tickets need to switch hands along the way ..... now not right time to comment.

Cheers and all the best. Enjoy our weekend first and family time.

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-16 19:14 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, you learn about contango

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-16 19:36 | Report Abuse

Contango is a potential trap for unwary investors. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide an opportunity for small investors to participate in commodity futures markets, which is tempting in periods of low interest rates. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of futures-based commodity ETFs rose from two to ninety-five, and the total assets rose from 3.9 to nearly 98 billion USD in the same period.[6] Because the normal course of a futures contract in a market in contango is to decline in price, a fund composed of such contracts buys the contracts at the high price (going forward) and closes them out later at the usually lower spot price.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango

Posted by gcke > 2017-09-16 19:48 | Report Abuse

Contango is a situation where the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than the spot price.[1][2] In a contango situation, hedgers (commodity producers and commodity users) or arbitrageurs/speculators (non-commercial investors),[3] are "willing to pay more [now] for a commodity at some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity [at that future point]. This may be due to people's desire to pay a premium to have the commodity in the future rather than paying the costs of storage and carry costs of buying the commodity today."

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-16 20:15 | Report Abuse

For the company spot prices of coke are not important. (Similary, spot oil prices are not important for oil companies.)

Only futures prices of coke matter. Futures prices of coke will be bearish for contango.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 20:40 | Report Abuse

I dont faham what hstha said but i faham what gcke said...so is this a bearish sign as u suggested?

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 20:47 | Report Abuse

So i think Contango means higher future price =spot price plus holding cost,carrying cost/financing cost etc n the current difference is ard rmb141pmt...

Not really a bearish or bullish sign...

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 20:54 | Report Abuse

What do u mean spot price r not important??spot price is the price u r paying to get the stocks for prompt delivery if i m not wrong...so if u need to stock u need to pay spot price to get the stocks asap...as for yr fwd requirement in dec u may buy thru futures n pay some premium now so as to avoid the storage cost/carrying cost etc

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 20:56 | Report Abuse

Whether to buy spot or fwd depends on yr inventory position or prodtcion planning or hedging requirement

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-16 21:10 | Report Abuse

CharlesT, you can see the video below

https://www.danielstrading.com/education/khan-academy-tutorials/forward-and-futures-contracts/severe-contango-generally-bearish

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 21:32 | Report Abuse

So is rmb140pmt diff a severe contango?

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-16 21:38 | Report Abuse

How did you get rmb140pmt?

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 21:43 | Report Abuse

As per necro remarks at 4.03pm..futures 2345 vs spot 22p4

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-16 21:46 | Report Abuse

more than 6%.. Humm

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 21:47 | Report Abuse

So more than 6% very severe?

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 21:47 | Report Abuse

Going to crash soon?

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 21:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by hstha > Sep 16, 2017 04:54 PM | Report Abuse

If a futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price, it is a sign of a bearish market.

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 21:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by hstha > Sep 16, 2017 08:15 PM | Report Abuse

For the company spot prices of coke are not important. (Similary, spot oil prices are not important for oil companies.)

Only futures prices of coke matter. Futures prices of coke will be bearish for contango.

My England is no good, can explain the above or not? Why spot prices are not important to COke n Oil co?

Posted by lbp83 > 2017-09-16 22:05 | Report Abuse

paling penting company ada berniaga dan untung.
Kalau coke price sangat tinggi，company tiada berniaga pun tiada guna lol

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 22:07 | Report Abuse

Lol i eat too much too free got nothing to do so just hv some fun with hstha only..happy weekend....

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-16 22:08 | Report Abuse

Again can make profit or not depends very much on the price diff btw coke n coal...

Posted by williamteng71 > 2017-09-16 23:30 | Report Abuse

Commodities can up n down.....when price hit high time....take profit......we oso don know where is the sky of 'tis Huaan.....

Posted by Begger_KING > 2017-09-16 23:42 | Report Abuse

Biggest Tips, the 8055 of THIS China company JUST loan a "RMB0.25b" with whole factory from BANK at 2017-06-12. Dun know for "goreng" coke or Bitcoin. hahaha . @ y dun need approve by EGM? http://www.qixin.com/company-risk/9b6fccba-75f0-4d81-bc85-f4505cd69fbe

Posted by Begger_KING > 2017-09-16 23:43 | Report Abuse

Maybe use this RMB0.25b come malaysia goreng this counter.....

Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-17 01:59 | Report Abuse

在供给侧结构性改革不断推进的背景下，今年上半年煤炭上市公司盈利能力大幅回升，经营状况良好，彻底摆脱了前几年的困难局面。据2017年半年报披露显示，37家煤炭上市公司平均销售毛利率27.9%，较去年同期上升12个百分点。其中，销售毛利率超过30%的上市公司有19家，去年同期仅7家。与此同时，37家上市公司净利润率为10.5%，较去年同期大幅上升17个百分点。

值得注意的是，截至目前，已有14家公司披露三季报业绩预告，业绩预喜公司达到12家，占比逾八成。

煤炭行业基本面仍然向好，但预期板块波动增大，长期仍以价值为上。目前看整体基本面好于预期，由于安全监管因素，煤炭短期供给略有收缩，预计动力煤价淡季仍可维持高位，焦煤提价动力仍然存在，焦炭供给收缩的逻辑可持续至中期。

Above you can notice following:
- Net profit margin is about 10%, if this coming qtr result is 300 m, the net profit will be 30 m, then EPF will 2.67, using PE 10, TP will be around 1.07, but discount by 50%, still can get 50 cents.
- What is this coming qtr average selling price for coke ? estimate maybe around RMB 2,263 per tonne compared to previous qtr at RMB 1,968 per tonne, this is about 15% increased in selling price
- What is this coming qtr average raw materials coal price ? estimate maybe around average RMB 1,300 per tonne as compared to previous qtr RMB 1,167 per tonne
- The margin or coking spread is about (2263 - 1300) = 963 compared to previous qtr at (1968-1167) = 801 ...... this qtr margin is improved by about 20%. So profit may be more than 30 m.

So, will you let go and then buy back at higher price ? You decide.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-17 02:46 | Report Abuse

If future price is higher than cash market or spot price, this indicate bullish signal not bearish signal, as this mean in coke price in future is trending uptrend as speculator speculate the commodity price will be higher due to shortages of coke supplies in coming winter season.

This also applies to crude oil future market, let's say Nov contract crude oil price is higher than Sep or Oct contract price due to speculators expects the crude oil price will trend upwards and this indicate bullish signal.

Normally cash and futures market is moving in same direction.

Huaan inventory if not wrong think mostly consist of coal inventory since coking process wont take so long and this need to supply to nearby steel mill in due time. So I think coke price is using current market price instead of future contract price and not like palm oil which using forward contract to hedge due to order and delivery time may take couple of months and price do fluctuate within this couple of months period.

Anyway, current margin is at high level for coke business and coke price is still maintain above 2,000 at least and future price still in uptrend.

Posted by afifi > 2017-09-17 10:21 | Report Abuse

thumb to win clound
tq for info

Posted by singunsin > 2017-09-17 10:41 | Report Abuse

Begger king could it be use for share buy back at 2016?

Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-17 12:59 | Report Abuse

Company plan to borrow banking facilities in June (after few months running business at profit since Feb'17 to prove for bank) and for Jul'17 expansion and monthly inventories purchase.
- Trade credit facilities (production capacity 1.8 m / 12 x 1.5 x 50% x 1300 = RMB 146 million
- expansion and renovation of factories and upgrade plant & equipment / working capital = 104 million
Total banking facilities required is about 250 million as we expect we will ramp up production capacity in following qtrs. We believe bank only will allow us to use banking facilities for business purpose not for goreng bitcoin or coke like what stupid beggar king said. Trade credit facilities will facilitate our purchase of coals due to market shortages and sometimes need to pay in cash, and this need bank to finance and we will use customer payments as collateral.

http://www.lhb.gov.cn/index.php?id=2313
Above picture is our July factory expansion (normally requires department of environment to inspect the progress of building up factory for coal storage and coke manufacturing to ensure we meet the government requirement).

Hopefully above business expansion plan will not cause you to rush to buy our stocks since coming quarter we are doing good as well.

This one is nonsense sharing as well.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-17 13:18 | Report Abuse

Loan borrowings think no need for EGM .... only disposal of land, building and company need to announce.

Loan borrowings including bridging loan (property/construction), land/property term loan, hire purchase facilities, etc.

Just now shared the website, dont know why firewall cannot access the website ......

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-17 13:24 | Report Abuse

If futures prices are higher than the spot price, it is usually a bearish sign for futures prices.
But small difference like 0.5% - 1% does not matter.

https://www.danielstrading.com/education/khan-academy-tutorials/forward-and-futures-contracts/severe-contango-generally-bearish

Posted by singunsin > 2017-09-17 13:29 | Report Abuse

Windcloud tq for explaining. Respect

Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-17 13:31 | Report Abuse

hstha, maybe you can try to use few commodity price to compare current and future price including:

- crude oil
- metellurgical coke
- coal
- currency

to prove future more than spot price mean bullish or bearish ..... can discuss as I not familiar as well.

Besides, doing business is different way depend on company whether hedging or not if commodity delivery time do affect price fluctuate, in annual report, they might write some hedging policy on this.

This one I did not study further.

Posted by hstha > 2017-09-17 13:56 | Report Abuse

If futures prices are much higher than the spot price, investors can do something like arbitrage.

Posted by windcloud > 2017-09-17 14:06 | Report Abuse

Thks hstha .... arbitrage mean what ? Not understand.

Posted by dompeilee > 2017-09-17 20:16 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow I won't be excited about Huaan. I will be VERY excited about Tokyo listed Sansha Electric(6882.T) which went limit UP in Japan on Friday(close @ 797 yen).

I bought it in August for 532 yen :D

Posted by John1234 > 2017-09-17 21:18 | Report Abuse

Dompeilee, I saw your posting on Jetson thread. Can you share why you bought into Jetson?

Posted by John1234 > 2017-09-17 21:38 | Report Abuse

Arbitrage usually refers to a situation where there exists a price difference for the same stock traded in 2 stock exchanges and traders will buy the stock in Exchange A and sell it in Exchange B for a profit. This will evetually force the prices in 2 exchanges to converge. But it does not work for the price difference in spot and futures mkts. Futures contracts are mainly used as a tool for hedging.

Posted by Begger_KING > 2017-09-17 22:08 | Report Abuse

highest record EPS is "3.55sen" at 2007Q3 without Government CONTROL. Now, china government Force this industry Slow down+Shut down halt-year. Let C how clever's 蔡成功 in 【人民的名义】"victory". Everybody HUAT AR~~~..........so, who lossssssssssssss....

Posted by dusana > 2017-09-18 00:44 | Report Abuse

If futures price is trading higher as compared to spot month this indicates that price will go higher therefore those in need of physical delivery if in comodity market will quickly buy spot months as much as possible before it rises to future price level.

Posted by FBMKLCI2015 > 2017-09-18 09:11 | Report Abuse

China PM to support huaan. buy before too late. cheap price target RM1 next year

Posted by Hwai Hooi > 2017-09-18 09:12 | Report Abuse

got news said China PM support huaan?

Posted by CharlesT > 2017-09-18 09:39 | Report Abuse

What I heard is Rosma n Alibaba...

Posted by FiveStar > 2017-09-18 10:29 | Report Abuse

I think all waiting to collect lower price

Posted by FiveStar > 2017-09-18 10:31 | Report Abuse

Can hope only la

Posted by Hwai Hooi > 2017-09-18 10:32 | Report Abuse

shark seem like come in ...

Posted by Hwai Hooi > 2017-09-18 10:35 | Report Abuse

no...is China come in?

Posted by FiveStar > 2017-09-18 10:40 | Report Abuse

Anyone know or monitoring Huaan stock price in China? any Link

Posted by Wei Jie Yau > 2017-09-18 10:47 | Report Abuse

Can buy ?

Posted by pretty_life > 2017-09-18 10:51 | Report Abuse

Be careful guy...is trap now...don't moving now..wait till 0.180 only moving again...