Posted by Dakewlest > 2020-05-31 15:00 | Report Abuse

I bought more at RM1.10.

Posted by Chaitm > 2020-05-31 15:33 | Report Abuse

Trading range is between 0.96 to 1.30 for a while. Unless it explodes and this can happen anytime from Jun-1st. But watch out its direction because it can go north or south.

Good luck !

Posted by lancefire > 2020-05-31 16:02 | Report Abuse

@xterrorsinx you were very bullish on pos the past few days. But your latest comment says "now I'm more relieved"...?

Anyway I get your point. I'm not expecting a miraculous QR this round. But Q2 and Q3 will be roaring for pos and gdex. This is a good counter to go in now especially that drop to 1.10 last Friday. Hopefully tomorrow will be booming!

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 16:27 | Report Abuse

Lance, for me when trading its dangerous to be 100% stubborn on the prospect of a share. Many people lost money as a result. I like to do fact checks time and then to ensure we're in correct direction.

Big funds selling is good indication of their take on the company's future and they have big influence on the share price too, so it matters a lot as a fact check. It is a relief as it seems to be a blanket adjustment across other shares as well.

I may be bullish on POS but i might sell the next day if the market is not doing well. That's how it is. Tide can turn anytime and we have to have high guards all the time, especially in the current situation.

Posted by lancefire > 2020-05-31 16:36 | Report Abuse

Yeah what you're saying is always have a trading plan. Agreed.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-05-31 17:01 | Report Abuse

POS take on It's aviation being hit by covid 19:

Mail Postal - Positive
The recent revision of the commercial postage rates, effective 1st February 2020, allows Pos Malaysia to continue serving its USO amidst a structural decline in mail volume and the constantly growing number of addresses, from 7.6 million in 2015 to over nine (9) million addresses today. Expanding and diversifying our touchpoints allow us to reach a wider customer base. We expect a sustainable financial performance from mail & retail services.

Courier - Positive
We will continue to ride the booming eCommerce wave. By providing better customer experience, we will obtain a distinct competitive advantage in an increasingly competitive and crowded courier market. We will increase our courier market share by promoting the adoption of our online shipping platform Pos Laju SendParcel and revamped Track & Trace, expanding courier touchpoints through agent outlets, as well as improving utilisation of parcel lockers across 255 locations nationwide.

Aviation - Neutral
The aviation industry is expected to be adversely impacted by Covid-19 throughout 2020. Domestic and international air travels are expected to remain low. The main disruptions for Pos Aviation will be mainly on passenger movements and inflight meal production. However, cargo handling is expected to be resilient and contribute a larger portion of the business’ revenue. As a result, the company will continuously optimise its resources to reflect the industry outlook and customise its services to meet the requirements of the new norm."

Logstics - Negative
In 2020, we expect the logistics sector to be negatively impacted by Covid-19, with subdued demand from customers affected by the restricted movement order imposed by the government. The shift towards an asset-lighter operating model will mitigate the impact and form the foundation to achieve higher yields for our portfolios once economic activity picks up.

International - Positive
We are optimistic on the growth of the regional eCommerce market and its positive impact on the international cross-border volume. Notwithstanding the above, the Group is expected to remain resilient in the face of continued global uncertainty brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Revenue Contribution
Postal: 189m 31.90%
Courier: 197m 33.24%
International: 39.5m 6.65%
Logistics: 73m 12.28%
Aviation 65m 10.94%
Others: 29.7m 5.00%

It seems to be there is more positive impact on major revenue contributors than negative impact on Logistics only (12.28% of revenue)

Posted by ITCHYLEG > 2020-05-31 20:54 | Report Abuse

https://www.tradingview.com/markets/stocks-malaysia/market-movers-large-cap/

Last friday last minute gap, the fund managers based on the above rating

Posted by Chaitm > 2020-05-31 21:01 | Report Abuse

Actually POS Msia was moving very nicely in the last two weeks. Last Friday sudden drop prior closing surprised me.

Posted by didi2005 > 2020-05-31 21:25 | Report Abuse

MSCI GLOBAL SMALL CAP INDEXES
The following are changes in constituents for the MSCI Global Small Cap Indexes
which will take place as of the close of May 29, 2020.

MSCI MALAYSIA INDEX

Additions
AIRASIA GROUP
AXIS REIT
BIMB HOLDINGS
GUAN CHONG
IOI PROPERTIES GROUP
LOTTE CHEMICAL TITAN
MEGA FIRST CORP


Deletions
BERJAYA CORPORATION
BUMI ARMADA
ECO WORLD INTERNATIONAL
HENGYUAN REFINING CO
HIBISCUS PETROLEUM
MUHIBBAH ENGINEERING
PETRON MALAYSIA REF&MKT
POS MALAYSIA
SUNWAY
WCT HOLDINGS

Posted by cinapeh > 2020-05-31 23:19 | Report Abuse

POS monthly profit forecast from realiable source on july 20 and onwards.....

1) Postage services 8.00m +
2) Courier 12.00m +
3) international 1.50m -
4) Aviation 1.50m +
5) Logistics -
6) others 3.50m +

TOTAL monthly profit before tax 23.5m
Yearly profit before tax 282m
profit after tax 203m
EPS 25.93c
PE : 16x = 4.15 share price

GOOD LUCK .....................

Posted by Popit79 > 2020-05-31 23:36 | Report Abuse

Break black line

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 10:23 | Report Abuse

It's about time... Today or tomorrow.

Posted by da4444 > 2020-06-01 11:04 | Report Abuse

Abang posman deliver qr today?

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-01 14:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/features/2020/06/01/343553?fbclid=IwAR10O9RxxTEQhw7NjXd8RG1WfTT_heN4YE3Q63K3L5mg4Tb5n4_8vaXHZzQ

0.77M X RM6* = 4.6M/day
4.62MX30 = 138M

*could be higher

2020 EPS above 0.30
PE 15 X 0.30 = 4.50 still buy PE100 glove?? buy poslah

Posted by munchys > 2020-06-01 16:58 | Report Abuse

can anyone enlighten me with the announcement date of POS quarter result?

Posted by terence775 > 2020-06-01 17:01 | Report Abuse

Munchys, can be anytime from now to end June as Bursa allowed for extension due to Covid. But I should expect to be within this or next week.

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-01 17:09 | Report Abuse

hopefully after QR , rally till August.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 17:25 | Report Abuse

abc, i die die also don't want to sell my POS shares even though the outside world is so tempting. Let's celebrate after it hits RM 1.50 :)

Posted by terence775 > 2020-06-01 18:24 | Report Abuse

xterrorsinx, let's hope you're right. I'm also eagerly awaiting the QR, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Nibbled a bit C47, fingers crossed. If QR is good will top up more.

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-01 18:26 | Report Abuse

Even 1.07 support break give sell signal, I will still hold. I assume all the sell signal is shark job to collect cheap ticket. glove seem a bit tired ,construction affected by unstable politic, oil depends on WTI, next sector to goreng is logistic and property. you know lah, shake out weak holder and spike is standard SOP.

Posted by terence775 > 2020-06-01 18:27 | Report Abuse

@abc333, may I know how you arrived at EPS 0.3? Historically POS has been making losses for the past 6 quarters.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 18:34 | Report Abuse

Terence bro, outside world is unstable. We buy what we see and hear. POS courier has been on a spike. even their newly revamped website (sendparcel) experienced 300% spike in traffic visit: https://pro.similarweb.com/#/website/worldwide-overview/sendparcel.poslaju.com.my/*/999/3m?webSource=Total

Their courier business is over the roof! Just like gloves, when demand outstrips supply, what happens? Adjustment on price. The problem in courier segment in the past was due to price competition. Price competition is due to demand < supply. So when demand > supply, price will go up. Profit margin will up too.

I love their hike in postal rate. Postal segment is the one dragging the group down everytime. Now with rates up 100%, if they breakeven i'm already very happy. Because if they have 0 loss from Postal, POS market cap is essentially 2.5 of Gdex (2 billion), a pure play courier player because their sales is 2.5 times. We are looking at 5b company if their postal division is not making loss.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 18:36 | Report Abuse

Also i expect POS to announce a rate hike on courier division soon. Every 50 cents up in a parcel sent out is RM 35 million Profit before tax for POS. (770k x RM 0.50 x 90 days).

IT's crazy!! RM 35m profit from a mere 10% hike in courier price! With demand sustaining after pre-mco, there's plenty of upside for POS.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 18:38 | Report Abuse

if POS up RM 0.50 per parcel sent (10% of price now), their annual profit up RM 140 million.

Posted by da4444 > 2020-06-01 18:39 | Report Abuse

Too many parcel to deliver until posman also lambat deliver qr

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 18:42 | Report Abuse

Remember what happened to glove sector when their backorder time was 1 year? They upped 20% on glove prices. And their shares doubled. The same can happen to POS. IF POS ups 10% of parcel prices, their profit change a year is RM 140 million. Which shareholder won't love to hear this? RM 140 million!!

Posted by terence775 > 2020-06-01 18:45 | Report Abuse

Yes, of course, the hike in postal rate is a definite breather for POS, since they are the national courier they are forced to do unprofitable routes (which companies like gdex and dhl can conveniently avoid). Going through their Annual Report, POS looks promising. But again, I'm cautiously optimistic. Fingers crossed, POS does well. If anything, Q2 2020 (rise in volume due to MCO) should be better than Q1 2020 (increase in postal rates), which should be better than Q4 2019. The catalysts are there, I just wonder if POS can capitalise on them well.

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-01 18:49 | Report Abuse

Dear terence775, you can read Mr xterrorsinx and Mr cinapeh comment , they give a good picture about the EPS. I am not a auditor , my math just depend on the news and previous financial report. In short, just me 2 cents.

Posted by DickyMe > 2020-06-01 18:50 | Report Abuse

POS is also profit oriented so they too can skip unprofitable routes.
They are taking citizens for granted and simply hiking up price without proper justification.

The only reason to hike price is to cover up losses.

POS is not the only one, but water and electricity suppliers are equal pirates.

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-01 18:58 | Report Abuse

GDEX profit per quarter RM 10 million, 1 year RM 40 million, Market Cap RM 2 billion.

Their sales 88m/quarter, 100% increase = 176m per quarter. PRofit will double to RM 20 per quarter or 80 m per year, but their market cap is RM 2 billion not for no reasons. The big Singaporean funds are expecting a rate hike in courier rates already.

Say they up 10% in courier rates.
Gdex to gain profit from:
1) Volume: 10m per quarter becomes 20m
2) Price: RM 176m sales x 10% = 17.6m
Total 34.6m per quarter or RM 138.4m per year
PE 15 = RM 2 billion.

Easy maths. Yes. They intend to hike the rates.
Look at their traffic. They have been working overload!! they need to up the price. IT is inevitable to justify their 2b share price.

Posted by terence775 > 2020-06-01 19:01 | Report Abuse

abc333, Ah I see I found the calculations. Seems interesting, I hope it is true. If it is, POS will definitely fly for sure.

DickyMe, unfortunately POS is forced to take the unprofitable routes. You can read in their Annual Report (search for USO=Universal Service Obligation). By the way, the price hike does not impact ordinary citizens but businesses if my understanding is correct; but it is true, the price hike is to cover up losses in that segment. I remember reading somewhere, that in 2019 POS is actually losing money for each delivery they make, because the ceiling price could not cover their logistic network to serve the whole country (over 9 million addresses). Good thing they managed to negotiate and convince the government to revise the ceiling prices.

Monopoly businesses are usually pirates, so you might as well invest in TNB in that case (they make money from you, you make money back from them). However, POS faces huge competition from smaller more agile companies and so are forced to innovate and make use of their large assets.

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-01 19:06 | Report Abuse

TNB Astro Telco all belong to the caribbean.

Posted by DickyMe > 2020-06-01 19:10 | Report Abuse

Why nurse a sore scabies at the expense of tax payer money?

Posted by njue76 > 2020-06-01 20:47 | Report Abuse

Mana q1 pos...knp blum keluar

Posted by da4444 > 2020-06-01 23:08 | Report Abuse

If pos rm2 i cut my bird

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-02 00:01 | Report Abuse

https://kenanga.com.my/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/POS-200129-CU.pdf

Before MCO or increase in demand for Courier delivery

Posted by da4444 > 2020-06-02 00:55 | Report Abuse

Luckily kenanga give TP 1.95 only

Posted by MichelleNg > 2020-06-02 01:06 | Report Abuse

Rm2 is matter of time....

Posted by Happy_lucky > 2020-06-02 07:46 | Report Abuse

Can try hengyuan 4324 .Hengyuan now is better than other o n g company ,because that only focus on the refining . The profit depends on crack spread, when the crude oil price decrease ,the cost will decrease and increase the crack spread profit but demand will decrease and the sale of volume also decrease. When the crude oil price increase, crack spread will be narrow but the demand will increase, demand increase and the sales of volume will increase , so overall increase the profit. History will come back from Rm2 to RM19. Super undervalue. Can limit up due to only 300 millions share.

Posted by paperone > 2020-06-02 09:28 | Report Abuse

So slow this counter

Posted by huiwen88 > 2020-06-02 10:05 | Report Abuse

hi guys, how do u all interpret the staffs didnt get bonus Raya?thx

Posted by da4444 > 2020-06-02 10:15 | Report Abuse

today drop until 1.02 my bird bird so happy

Posted by paperone > 2020-06-02 11:09 | Report Abuse

Every day drop

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-02 12:48 | Report Abuse

some one had correct me , 1 parcel by average should be 10.5
0.77m X 10 = 7.7m/day
7.7X30= 231M /month

231X3 =693M/Q

2772m/year. courier only

2019 9month group total revenue 1683M
2018 total revenue 2355M

2020 FY revenue may greater than 4000M if e-commerce trend continues
minimum 600m profit EPS 72

after August facebook sifu will show you their calculation
72X PE15 = 10.8, they will tell you 3.5 still cheap, faster buy TP 10.80

Posted by abc333 > 2020-06-02 12:49 | Report Abuse

but, face the red QR first, hold tight

Posted by da4444 > 2020-06-02 12:52 | Report Abuse

@abc333 your calculation make my bird scared scared

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-02 13:12 | Report Abuse

https://www.thestar.com.my/metro/metro-news/2019/11/30/pos-malaysia-locks-deal-for-more-secure-parcel-delivery

Love it. Contactless delivery. No time wasted for Posman

Posted by xterrorsinx > 2020-06-02 13:14 | Report Abuse

https://www.edgeprop.my/content/pos-malaysia%E2%80%99s-land-value-ripening-not-khazanah

POS Malaysia brickfields Land beside KL sentral used to sell 1,500 psf, book value RM 12 m now and is worth 176m 10 years ago. Now?

Posted by madamegazelle > 2020-06-02 13:54 | Report Abuse

but why the price keep on dropping?

Posted by cinapeh > 2020-06-02 14:08 | Report Abuse

downgrade by MSCI, don't worry,