@Kevin Tam, For research reports are considered just personal opinions and not a yardstick for my trading decision. In fact, once they painted a very negative light on Unisem and set a lower price when it was trading at higher price. But in the industry, the recovery was in the pipeline.
If research house starts to give high targets, I will start to be cautious and adjust accordingly. Example: Unisem price at 7++, Research said 8.00 It doesn't mean it will not go down to 6-7 first, and later only hit 8.00 if company performance is maintained.
In summary, the investors who had first hand access to the data of supply /demand will able to position themselves early into the game.
The swinging action is a heaven for short term traders to take advantage of ups and downs. Medium-long term traders are always caught in it.
That is where the technical analysis can help to at least reduce the risk of being caught or have a better trading plan.
Monitor the movement of shares on daily/hour basis is even more intense but a short term trader has to do that.
So, got to ask, what are own goals for this counter, etc.
In general, I am medium term, but looking at Unisem's trend for past 1 year, I had to adapt and switch to short term trading. Yes, it takes more time and effort, but that is the price to pay if you wish for higher gains in short period while the trend is favorable to the trading plan.
Yup, Icap journal do mention Taiwan facing quite serious drought since 1 month ago n TSMC needs a lot of water for her chip production... Shortage of chips is one factor, if anything wrong with TSMC, disruption in chip production, will affect the volume of smaller semiconductor companies in Malaysia... I prefer medium term or 1 -2 years short term than trading or goreng for 1 week ... Day trader is even harder to gain unless really good at technical analysis n good at timing ...
February sales surge semiconductor shares (Kuala Lumpur 6th) In February this year, global semiconductor sales have surged 14.7% year-on-year, and the month will slightly reduce 1% to $ 39.6 billion (about 163.6 billion yuan).
Dachen analysts said that the latest data showed that monthly, the monthly trend was consistent with a few seasonal trends in February, and the rising rose on the year, it was visible for two consecutive months. February growth and strong wafer demand and orders observed by domestic semiconductor operators were driven together.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) predicts that after 5.1% to 440.4 billion last year, this year's global semiconductor sales will further grow by 6.6%, to a record $ 46.4 billion.
From the individual areas, most regional economic slowdown, resulting in a micro-falling 1% in February. Compared to year, China, Asia Pacific (excluding China) and Europe rose 18.9%, 18.2%, and 6.8% respectively, all more than January, but promoted sales in February 14.7% year-on-year. This also offset a negative effect of 9.7% and 7.6% of the United States and Japan, respectively.
The shipments have new high
At the same time, in February, the shipments rose 3.2% monthbook, and 32% increased from year to 31 billion US dollars, and the history is high. This also recorded monthly growth in the third consecutive month, as well as a year-on-year increase in the 17th consecutive month; strong increase in strong demand for semiconductors throughout the terminal market, as well as global digitalization accelerated development.
Since semiconductor sales reach a record level last year, the wafer factory has increased capacity to meet global needs, and semiconductor shipments are expected to grow further this year. In addition, including the world's launch of the 5th generation of telecommunications technology (5G) equipment, emerging technology development, and China's huge investment in the wafer factory, will also drive the semiconductor demand.
Aspects, analysts sustain Yi Nagi Meichang (INARI, 0166, Masterboard Technology stock), Yisisen (UNISEM, 5005, Masterboard Technology stock), Mathard (MPI, 3867, motherboard technology stock) and Elsoft, 0090, the "Buy" rating of the main board technology stocks, target price is 4.33, 10.87, 54.35 吉, 86 fairy.
This is mainly because the outer semiconductor assembly and testing prospects of the above stocks are not good, and have clear order visibility and profit growth prospects. Comprehensive factors, analysts reiterated the "increase" rating of the semiconductor industry.
It is worth mentioning that the Matthasia rose 76 fairy or 1.9% on Tuesday, reported 40.46 to 1.85,5600 shares, the largest rising stock in the audience.
Silicon: Semiconductor shortage impacting automotive industry
Posted 19th January 2021 in Industry news. By Nils Backeberg
According to Reuters, automakers around the world have been caught off-guard by a shortage of semiconductors that has required the industry to compete against the consumer electronics industry for chip supplies. Leading semiconductor manufacturers reassigned capacity from automakers after the pandemic cut down vehicle sales, instead shipping chips to companies that produce smartphones, gaming systems and other electronic goods that remained in high demand.
Several companies, including Volkswagen, Nissan, Ford, Toyota and others, have been impacted and are struggling to secure the chips to maintain production lines. All chips, whether bound for a laptop or a vehicle, start life as a silicon wafer, an industry that has always struggled to keep up with sudden demand spikes.
Roskill View
Polycrystalline silicon (polysilicon) is used in the production of silicon wafers. Polysilicon remains only the third-largest end-use for silicon metal worldwide, however, it has been the fastest growing of the three major applications for silicon metal in the past two decades with its share of global demand rising from 3% in 2000 to 20% in 2019.
Silicon metal is consumed directly in the production of poly-crystalline silicon wafers for use in photovoltaic (PV) solar cells, and indirectly in mono-crystalline silicon wafers for use in semiconductors for integrated circuits and a range of electronic equipment. Until 2007, the production of mono-crystalline silicon wafers for use in semiconductors was the largest end-use for polysilicon. The consumption of silicon metal in polysilicon began to take off significantly after 2009, fuelled in part by generous subsidies for producers and consumers of solar products in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. By 2019, the proportion of global polysilicon demand accounted for by semiconductor applications had fallen to just 16%.
Though Asia accounts for about 70% of global silicon semiconductor wafer output, China remains a relatively small player with a market share of about 15%, in contrast to its dominance of the solar value chain. The leading producing countries are South Korea, Taiwan, the USA and Japan, with over 50% of supply consolidated into the five largest producers.
The rapid advancement of technology both drives and restrains the demand for silicon chips and wafers, and the constantly changing balance of these influences has led to a haphazard growth over the last decade, while silicon wafers in the solar industry have enjoyed a consistent growth. Looking forward, Roskill forecasts that the solar industry will continue to drive growth in demand for silicon metal with double digit increases in demand to 2023. Moreover, while semiconductor demand as a whole is expected to remain in the low single-digit growth rates over the next decade, the impacts of COVID-19 are already indicating a haphazard growth year in 2021.
The main driver for Malaysia’s export performance in Feb 2021 was the Electrical & Electronic (E&E) Products sector which increased its exports by 25.5% from RM25.1b to RM31.5b on a year to year basis. Export of Refined Petroleum Products and Palm oil and Palm Oil Based products grew by 6.1% and 10.4% respectively. Interestingly, the increase in Refine Petroleum Products was driven by an increase in export volume (+58.7%) because average unit value (or price, in layman’s language) actually fell by 13.2%. On the other hand, the increase in palm oil exports were driven by the increase in average unit value (+26.7%) even though export volume dropped by 14.3%. (These trends are worth monitoring moving forward) It is likely that the E&E sector in Malaysia, which had a good year last year (MCO 1.0 notwithstanding) will continue to experience a healthy growth in 2021 especially as economic growth in the United States picks up and the effects of the massive US$1.9 trillion stimulus package is felt on the ground. Malaysia’s E&E sector most certainly benefitted from the US-China trade war with some amount of production transfer taking place from China to places like Penang and to a lesser extent Selangor and Johor. While the E&E sector will continue to face challenges in the labour market (like many others in the manufacturing and construction sectors), the trajectory for this most important sector of the economy when it comes to our export figures is definitely positive moving forward. B
Americans factory shift out from China, Chinese take over plants cheap cheap... Americans buy chips from Vietnam , Philippine and Malaysia partly owned by Chinese. Funny ya.
When Unisem was earning 33million , the share price is Rm2xx-3, when the profit increased to 60million, share price shoot up 200% ++ and people still expected share price to shoot more because profit will increase, but don't you think price is up too fast?
Now proven the earning is slowing down and in fact reduce to 45million already. people still thinking now at RM7+ is still cheap. kidding.
Unisem (M) Bhd today first quarter net profit from continuing operations jumped about ninefold to RM45.79 million from RM5.32 million a year earlier as revenue rose on higher sales volume. Unisem revenue from continuing operations rose to RM373.94 million in the first quarter ended March 31, 2021 (1QFY21) from RM255.16 million a year ago.
Unisem’s 1Q21 core net profit of RM45m (QoQ: -32%, YoY: -RM6m in 1Q20) was in line. Although top line gained sequentially, bottom line was weaker attributable to unfavourable sales mix, higher manpower cost and D&A. 2Q21 revenue outlook is guided to be +5-8% QoQ as order visibility remains robust. Chengdu is expected to see stronger growth ahead and contribute about 55% to the group over Ipoh’s 45%. Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP of RM9.88, pegged to 33x of FY22 EPS.
Within expectations. 1Q21 core earnings of RM45m (QoQ: -32%, YoY: -RM6m in 1Q20) matched our and street full year estimates at 23% and 21%, respectively. This is deemed to be in line considering seasonal weakness. 1Q21 one-off items include inventories write-down (+RM69k), forex gain (-RM445k) and grant income received (- RM275).
Dividend. None (1Q20: None).
QoQ. Despite unfavourable forex (1Q21: RM4.06/USD vs 4Q20: RM4.11/USD), top line gained 2% on the back of higher sales volume achieved. In USD term, sales expanded by 3% to USD92m. However, core earnings shrunk by 32% to RM45m due to (1) unfavourable revenue mix (higher contribution from lower-margin leaded and leadless products); (2) higher payroll costs due to salary increment, bonus and newly hired 250 operators in Chengdu; and (3) higher D&A (+4%).
YoY. While impacted by less favourable forex (1Q20: RM4.17/USD), top line gained 37%, mainly driven by higher sales volume. From continuing operations, sales actually strengthened 47% (50% in USD term). Bottom line turned profitable from 1Q20’ core loss of RM6m as Unisem was impacted by Covid-19 disruptions in Ipoh and Chengdu while winding down Batam plant.
Chengdu. Utilization rates remain high in both wafer bumping, assembly and test. It has awarded contracts for construction of Phase 3 building with target completion in Sept 2022.
Ipoh. Utilization rates are wafer bumping in UAT is low due to wafer shortage. Assembly and test is optimal except wafer level packaging.
Outlook. 2Q21 revenue is expected to be +5% to +8% QoQ (in USD term) with good order visibilities across all market segments. Contribution split between Chengdu and Ipoh in assembly and test is 55:45 and the former is expected to see stronger growth.
Forecast. Unchanged.
Reiterate BUY with unchanged TP of RM9.88, pegged to 33x of FY22 EPS. Despite trade war and Covid-19 risks, Unisem’s prospect has improved with (1) closure of loss-making Batam plant; (2) favourable forex; (3) gradual synergistic relationship with TSHT; and (4) healthy balance sheet.
1QFY21 CNP of RM45.8m (+761% YoY; -25% QoQ) is in line with our/street expectation at 20/22% of full-year estimate. The QoQ drop is due to hiring costs and new equipment added to cater for overwhelming orders for subsequent quarters. Unisem is optimistic, expecting high single-digit QoQ growth in 2QFY21 on the back of strong demand for wafer bumping in its Chengdu plant and WLCSP which command higher margins than normal leaded/leadless packages. Phase 3 expansion in Chengdu will commence soon with completion expected in 2H 2022. Maintain OUTPERFORM with an unchanged TP of RM10.00.
Within expectations. In the quarter that is typically it’s weakest, this best ever 1Q CNP delivery of RM45.8m (+761% YoY; -25% QoQ) met our high expectations representing 20% and 22% of our and street’s full year forecast.
YoY, 1QFY21 revenue surged by 47% to RM373.9m (+50% in USD terms to US$91.9m), as the group registered higher loading volumes for all its packages across the board due to pent-up demand for semiconductor chips.
QoQ, 1QFY21 CNP fell 24.8% to RM45.8m despite a 2.1% increase in revenue to RM373.9m. The larger quantum of decline in CNP could be explained partially by the 4.4% higher depreciation cost as new equipment was added to the facility. In addition, there was an increase in payroll cost with newly added 280 new operators and technicians in Chengdu plant post-Chinese New Year holidays coupled with upward adjustments in salary to retain and incentivise its workforce.
Bright prospects. The group indicated that the margin impact from the newly added staff will be temporary as the extra workforce is well needed to accommodate the overwhelming demand in its Chengdu plant, especially for wafer bumping and wafer-level chip scale packaging (WLCSP). Phase 3 expansion in Chengdu is expected to commence very soon and will be completed by 2HFY22, which will double its current floor space. While Ipoh plant is experiencing strong orders in other packages, its bumping facility utilisation rate is relatively lower than Chengdu as its American customers in Ipoh did not manage to secure enough wafers. That said, the group is optimistic that the roaring demand in Chengdu will be able to offset the temporary shortfall until bumping orders return to Ipoh site strongly in 3Q or 4Q 2021. To capitalise on that, Unisem is also revisiting the idea of building a plant in its 32 acres land in Gopeng.
Maintain FY21E and FY22E CNP of RM235.3m and RM254.6m.
Maintain OUTPERFORM with unchanged Target Price of RM10.00 based on higher FY21E PER of 31x at +1.5SD to 3-year mean.
Risks to our call include: (i) weaker-than-expected USD/MYR, (ii) slower-than-expected adoption of 5G, and (iii) worsening US-China trade war.
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Posted by brian3381 > 2021-04-04 18:40 | Report Abuse
No need bonus. Bonus judt make more shares, dificult to up.