Posted by spec9888 > 2014-03-18 16:17 | Report Abuse

If up like yinson, sure we all become kaya raya. Wakakaka

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-18 16:33 | Report Abuse

Read RHB's target price with earning growth of 30% FYE14 and 40% FYE15. Let's calculate the intrinsic value using Benjamin formula IV= (8.5 + 2(growth rate)) x EPS, let us use 15% growth, half of what RHB's forecast.
IV = (8.5 + 30) x 0.13 = RM5.00 x 35% = RM1.75 [please note that there is a lot of limitation to this formula, because it assume long term growth 5-10yrs, ignore risk free interest, liquidity]. So, the purchase cost should be below RM1.75 in order to have a big margin of safety.

The intrinsic value is RM5.00 (on assumption it has a sustainable CAGR of PAT for next 10 years of 15%). At 15% growth, it means its earnings will double every 5 years. At RM1.75, it is only 35% of IV, I believe there is sufficient Margin of Safety, I have used less than half the growth rate. As for the target price, each investor will have their own target.

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-18 16:43 | Report Abuse

sosfinance, it means still worth a bet even at this price now, rite?
Intrinsic V is Rm5.00 is sufficient safety.
This one runs as if a cheetah is chasing it

Posted by sotsot1986 > 2014-03-18 19:14 | Report Abuse

heard like going to join O&G industry

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-18 20:09 | Report Abuse

I believe it is sufficient. Just assumed the EPS doubled in 5 years, the EPS will be 26sen. (I used RHB's report EPS of 13sen, based on the financials in i3investor, it is 16sen FYE2013). At price of RM1.75, we are looking at PE of 6.5x in year FYE2018 (RHB forecast it achieves it in FYE2015) Assume it is traded at perspective PE of 12 times, then the share price will be roughly RM3.00. The formula is not perfect, but it is easy enough for layman investors to understand and useful, and always, put a lot of discount to it. This stock has some similarity with Mudajaya, high growth. Half the growth used by analysts, calculate the IV. Then you will see, Mudajaya, have similar characteristics.

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-18 20:59 | Report Abuse

sosfinance, do you have pricing based on Warren Buffet discounted cashflow method. Heard is more accurate than Graham's formula

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-18 21:28 | Report Abuse

mk88, nope. DCF is applicable more to concessionaire like toll roads, IPPs or water concessions, where it has 15 to 30 years of projected cash flows more predictable.

There are limitations in using Benjamin's IV method as well. For layman investor, it is sufficient, provided we use very conservative figures, at least we know the entry point (a sharp discount of IV) and exit point, can be 60% to 70% of actual IV. The whole idea of this formula, we have a reference point for entry and exit. There is no full prove formula out there, as long as you think and act like a businessman, invest rationally, I believe, in the long run, you will be doing better than the CI. Of course, we have to revisit the assumptions made on and off based on new data or information, to see if we are on or off course. Just like any businessman, they do not look at the share price everyday, they focus on the productivity, efficiency and competence in their business.

Of course, some shares are cornered by the major shareholders, then, there is no way any formula can help to determine the reasonable price.

Posted by kingleecha > 2014-03-18 23:45 | Report Abuse

contra won many ^_^

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 08:53 | Report Abuse

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2014/03/yeelee-prtasco-two-cup-with-handle.html

Alex chart - 2.15, huat huat

Posted by beverley96 > 2014-03-19 09:14 | Report Abuse

huh`~~luckily i logged in this counter yesterday~~

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 09:17 | Report Abuse

1.80 huat huat, rm2 coming

Posted by Amao Mao > 2014-03-19 09:24 | Report Abuse

Whoa today soar again, luckily also yesterday bought some

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-19 09:26 | Report Abuse

Please see limitation of formula in Mudajaya (i commented on 19/3/2014 @ 8.46am). With the support of technical analysis, it is even better.

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 10:21 | Report Abuse

RM2.15?

Posted by Firebird2 > 2014-03-19 10:26 | Report Abuse

Amao, you really huat ar
Sosfinance, thx for the explanation
Lim, Nextrade anticipate it can go to Rm2.15

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 10:28 | Report Abuse

Good, I just bought into this counter at RM1.81.
Still got 16.21% to earn here.
=)

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-19 10:30 | Report Abuse

don't rush, this ctr can experience sell down as it has run low for very long time already, until rhb give it a "push" recently. plenty of ppl waiting to sell now. anyway, yr $ yr choice!

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 10:33 | Report Abuse

So terrible?

Posted by Hearsay > 2014-03-19 10:36 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kenangaresearch/48543.jsp

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 10:48 | Report Abuse

Lim from Brunai

I think can easily cross 2.00

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 10:50 | Report Abuse

I'm holding tight.
Lets' ride!!!

Posted by destiney > 2014-03-19 10:57 | Report Abuse

yee lee owns spritzer..

Posted by Ant > 2014-03-19 11:03 | Report Abuse

all petro station no more selling spritzer...

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 11:04 | Report Abuse

Protasco can hit RM2.15, no problem~

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-19 11:04 | Report Abuse

More and more analysts are covering this stocks. K&N, and others. Another positive for the share prices. I know one fund management house recommended this stock for medium term.

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 11:07 | Report Abuse

Hahax, protasco build more road!!!

Posted by Ant > 2014-03-19 11:07 | Report Abuse

no more spritzer selling in all petro station

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 11:13 | Report Abuse

Regret I sold it last month at RM1.66, now have to buy back at RM1.81.
Baru earn 1%.
=(

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-19 11:14 | Report Abuse

u also know this ctr ding-dong-ding-dong :D

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 11:16 | Report Abuse

I had been study it finance data & chart, look nice~

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-03-19 11:30 | Report Abuse

lim, you sounds conflict, u said its finance data & chart nice, but you sold it at 1.66....

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 11:31 | Report Abuse

From the chartwise look nice, uptrend last 1 year, lately more power

Look at Public Bank shares, walow, uptrend for last 10 years

Posted by 林俊松 > 2014-03-19 11:32 | Report Abuse

davidkkw79, I sold at RM1.66 because correction, heavy seller that time.
I try to look for nice time to reenter again~

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-19 11:32 | Report Abuse

the chart also tell every peak come a deep dive. this round is clearly play by IB. yr $ yr choice!

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-03-19 11:32 | Report Abuse

what tp for this company?

Posted by kelvinongbk > 2014-03-19 11:51 | Report Abuse

what price should be good to enter iafx during correction...

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 11:54 | Report Abuse

halopanda, why are you comparing protasco to yinson? higher growth?

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 11:57 | Report Abuse

Kelvin - what companies with good fundamental and earning is around 1.80? Muhibbah? Yinson?

Posted by iafx > 2014-03-19 11:57 | Report Abuse

consider 8/2013 chart last year. since the outlook is good, there is no need to rush in. small & slow is safer. anyway, juz a tot, yr $ y choice!

Posted by spec9888 > 2014-03-19 12:51 | Report Abuse

Too amazing... It is up and up...

Posted by spec9888 > 2014-03-19 12:52 | Report Abuse

Wish everybody huat huat ar

Posted by halopanda > 2014-03-19 13:18 | Report Abuse

Cos protasco is better than yinson in every aspect yet its so much cheaper than yinson. Higher revenue, higher profit, higher dividends. Also in multi industry.

Posted by mk88 > 2014-03-19 13:25 | Report Abuse

your assessment Prt is much better than yinson. can prt price surpass yinson 9 or closer in the future?

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-03-19 14:34 | Report Abuse

Aiyo....why this ctr move so much ha?......anyone notice the new shareholder cum director background?.......check his background then you will know lor......no need to guess his intention lor......ha ha ha

Posted by davidkkw79 > 2014-03-19 14:38 | Report Abuse

what do you mean his background? Can dragonslayer you sharing more about the new shareholder?

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-03-19 14:43 | Report Abuse

Aiyo ....ho is Teh Por Yee...new director cum I think 2nd largest shareholder....he is founder of another public listed company...young (age 30+ only if not wrong) and I think handsome person also lor.....also a venture capitalist....what you think this young chap buying into this company.....play play ha.....stepping stone to become richer lor......what Venture Capitalist doing ......guess yrself lor...........ha ha ha

Posted by halopanda > 2014-03-19 14:49 | Report Abuse

Mk88, I think there's room to grow at this point in time.

Posted by halopanda > 2014-03-19 14:52 | Report Abuse

Yinson is a good point of reference

Posted by sosfinance > 2014-03-19 15:00 | Report Abuse

Then Protasco has 3 things positives attributes, one, its fundamental (growth from property development), two, technical analyst said Protasco & Yee Lee is moving upward, and third, a venture capitalist company. So, not bad if the company grow from PE of 9x to 18x, supported by chartist and venture capitalist. If not, this counter will be flat, giving about DY 10%. We have to see if the property development really turn into earning growth. If they allocate their resources better, i.e. the additional cash can attain an ROE of 15-20%, well, it would be a growth company in the making.

Posted by dragonslayer > 2014-03-19 15:02 | Report Abuse

Aiyo sos......good wor....added new item into the list.....ha ha ha