Palm oil prices likely to hit RM3,200 by year-end By Ooi Tee Ching
REVERSING INTO UPTREND: Palm oil is one of the commodities that has not moved up, says market strategist
PALM oil prices are likely to climb back to RM3,200 a tonne by year-end, said Jupiter Securities chief market strategist Benny Lee Wan Yu.
Yesterday, the third-month benchmark palm oil futures on the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange traded RM10 higher to close at RM2,937 a tonne.
"Palm oil prices are more or less going to trade rangebound between RM2,900 and RM3,000 a tonne in the immediate weeks. Chartwise, palm oil prices seemed to have bottomed out at RM2,820 a tonne," he said.
"So far, palm oil is one of the commodities that has not moved up. Gold, petroleum and soyabean have all gone up.
"Currently, the trading pattern is very much like that in 2010. Back then, prices went as high as RM3,900 a tonne towards the end of the year," he said.
However, Lee said this time, prices are not likely to trade as high because of high inventories.
"We see the prices reversing into an uptrend, going as high as RM3,200 by year end and peaking at RM3,400 a tonne in the first quarter of 2013," he added.
Lee was speaking on the sidelines of the International Palm Oil Sustainability Conference 2012 held here yesterday.
Also present at the conference was Malaysian Palm Oil Council chairman Datuk Lee Yeow Chor.
Cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services put September 1 to September 10 exports at 453,302 tonnes, an increase of 27 per cent. Another surveyor, SGS, puts exports at 460,939 tonnes, up 30 per cent.
In the first 10 days of this month, crude palm oil exports jumped more than twofolds to 167,663 tonnes. The surveyors' report said the surge is a result of the government's recent decision to allow another two million tonnes of tax-free crude palm oil to be exported.
Lee concurred with the cargo surveyors' findings that palm oil export volume is doing well.
"We expect shipment to pick up in the coming months. There's strong demand for palm oil from India and Africa," he said.
When asked on price outlook, Lee replied: "Palm oil is still trading at a wide discount to soya oil of more than US$200 (RM620) a tonne. This price differential has prompted demand for more palm oil and in time, prices should start to rise again."
Well, Kulim wc has to see her mothers' face first. If Kulim rebounds then it has chance to move. Like I said before, this counter is high risk to play but it has potential to move when the security comission approves the revision of exercise price after the special dividend pay out.
Rsawit will have technical rebound within this few days. This company still expanding the land bank which will ensure the company has a great growth rate over the years. Trading buy 1.04
The period of super-normal profit induced many plantation companies to open up new land for cultivation of palm oil. Due to time lag, where oil palm trees can only start to produce FFB after 3-4 years (while the more productive age is above 7 years old), the increase in oil palm estate land did not make a dent in the price of CPO for the past few years.
However, as the tree begins to reach the age of 7th year, the FFB output should increase significantly in the next few years. This increase will result in the supply curve shifting to the right. This shifting of the supply curve will result in a new price equilibrium with prices dropping back
Some may argue that the demand by consumers in China & India are still strong. I doubt so. And, so is the demand for use in biodiesel. However, this additional demand has been factored into the demand curve and the increase (if any) will be marginal and this would not represent a shift in the demand curve. As such, I do not foresee CPO going back to the heyday of RM4000 per tonne. In fact, I believe there is greater likelihood of CPO dropping further to possibly RM2000 per tonne
What goes up must comes down and what goes down will goes up, bros! the faster it climbs the harder it fall, and the faster it dips the faster it recover too. Doesn't anyone agree with me on this matter? Look at the index it drop too fast and steep during 2008. It recovered within the next 2 years. So if American, European, Chinese and our gov keep pumping the stimulus to the market it only create articifial growth which will only later reaches it equilibrium. which is happening now. the growth is stalled and we may head for a down dip or great depression of all time. Greed is the nature of all human and races!
Cpo stock rise again due to euro crisis concern which drag down the demand of CPO. Next quarter financial report profit will drop at least 40% when comparing to last year financial report. Down trend has formed and Next support at 0.89 ..
rsawit is not the cheapest oilpalm stock, pinepac is even cheaper and harvest ready next year.
anyway i dun see future in oilpalm stock as the supply is much higher than demand and it will be more and more supply than demand (like the rubber supply in 60s and 70s).
why is that so is all bcos too many companies joined to plant oil palm. b4 2009, co like metrok, delloyd, kfima and jtiasa may be laughed at their competitors like orient, sindora, kseng and cbip for lost focus in manufacturing and planting oilpalm. after hv seen those companies made profits they also join queue and plant oilpalm. their estates now hv given big impact to market of cpo. do u know shipping company like syscorp also plant oilpalm ? selling burger and rootbeer is no longer good business, so kub also invest in oilpalm business.
if all toms and dicks jump into oilpalm business, will this business get better ?
This share has broken its uptrend line support and it's going down trend at the moment. The volume still very low which meant the investor still looking for lower price to buy back and expect this share drop further .. 0.85 can start buying..
another sharp decreasing is expecting after the technical rebound. Time to take profit now before the price drop again. Don't be greedy.. The next quater result is getting worse due to the the low CPO and the report will drive the price down further when they release the financial report.
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
1M168
204 posts
Posted by 1M168 > 2012-08-24 15:26 | Report Abuse
RUNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN... will break RM 1 soonest.
P/E break 100