Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-04 00:24 | Report Abuse

Palm prices could rise to RM2,950/T in January if Brent oil gains: Fry
Reuters

November 03, 2017 16:00 pm MYT

NUSA DUA, Indonesia (Nov 3): Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices could rise to a high of RM2,950 (US$697) per tonne in January before falling to RM2,600 if oil prices rise until the second quarter of the year, leading analyst James Fry forecast on Friday.

Fry, the chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, had last forecast in September for Malaysian benchmark prices to fall below RM2,400 per tonne in November and December, as overseas appetite for the commodity falters over the winter period.

"Brent is pulled between Saudi Arabia's desire to raise values before the huge Aramco IPO and US shale oil's response to higher prices," he said, referring to the initial public offering of Saudi Aramco, Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company.

"If you think the Saudi's will hold sway, at least until 2Q, CPO futures peak at RM2,950 in January and then fall back towards RM2,600," he said at an industry conference in Bali, Indonesia.

With Brent prices at US$60 a barrel, Fry estimates palm oil peaking at over RM2,800 per tonne in January, before falling below RM2,500.

Prices of the tropical oil would drop towards RM2,300 per tonne with oil prices at US$55 a barrel, he added.

Benchmark Bursa Malaysia crude palm oil futures climbed to their highest since Sept. 15 earlier this week, but is down about 9% so far this year.

It was last down 0.6% on Friday evening at RM2,804 a tonne.

Brent crude oil prices rose as high as US$61.70 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest intraday level since July 2015, and was last up 0.2% at US$60.71 a barrel.

Palm oil prices are expected to climb as production growth this year has not come in as much as expected due to the lingering effects of the El Nino.

The El Nino weather pattern in 2015 curtailed palm oil production in Southeast Asia as it brought hot, dry weather to the region that limited palm fruit yields.

Fry later said on the sidelines of the conference that Malaysia's palm oil production could reach nearly 21 million tonnes in 2018.

Indonesian output this year is forecast at nearly 36 million tonnes, said Fry, and could see additional growth of 4 million tonnes in 2018.

"For Indonesia we have an increase of another 4 million tonnes or so from 2017. The recovery is continuing, and a lot of the area planted is maturing, so you add all these things," he said.

Indonesia and Malaysia produce nearly 90% of global palm oil supplies.

(US$1 = RM4.2310)

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-07 01:28 | Report Abuse

Goldman Sachs: A Very Bullish Case For Commodities

By Nick Cunningham - Nov 05, 2017, 3:00 PM CST
Trading Screen
The fortunes of oil and gas producers have been dramatically different from metal producers this year. Energy prices have been lackluster, and energy stocks have fared even worse. Meanwhile, prices for a variety of metals have jumped sharply. Taken together, commodity prices broadly are more or less flat, but that obscures the very different performances between energy and metals this year.

According to a recent report from Goldman Sachs, entitled, “Metals Shine as Oil Volatility Dulls,” demand for all sorts of commodities has been very strong in 2017, both energy and metals included. “[A]ll markets are currently facing the best demand backdrop in over a decade with strong global synchronous growth,” Goldman wrote.

With demand strong for both metals and energy, the difference between the two sectors in 2017 has been on the supply side. There has simply been too much oil supply, keeping a lid on prices and depressing the value of energy stocks. Goldman says things have been worse for oil and gas producers than it expected, with the rebound in shale production exceeding forecasts.

But that hasn’t occurred in the market for metals. “Not only is there no shale equivalent in metals, energy faces excess capacity in services which keeps cost in?ation in check. In contrast, metals have less spare capacity and are facing cost in?ation,” Goldman analysts wrote in the October report.

Nevertheless, Goldman laid out a bullish case for the entire commodity sector, including oil. There are several reasons why the investment bank reached this conclusion. The first is based on the “maturing business cycle.” Specifically, we are at a particular point in the business cycle – phase 3 – called the “growth above capacity” phase, which is to say, “where commodities outperform other asset classes and policy makers are forced to put the brakes on growth,” Goldman argued.

The logic is that commodities perform well during periods in which central banks are tightening interest rates. That relationship comes down to the fact that central banks are trying to get a hold on rising prices – directly the result of rising prices for commodities. So, in essence, rising commodities prices force central banks to hike rates. But there is a window when commodity producers are doing really well before the tighter monetary conditions kick in. Industrial metals typically rise by 50 percent during the rate hiking cycle, according to the report. Currently, metals prices have jumped 25 percent, so there is more room to grow.

Posted by probability > 2017-11-09 10:45 | Report Abuse

enning22..what is your opinion on Taann relative pricing to SOP...is it fair?

Posted by pakatan_harapan2 > 2017-11-09 15:21 | Report Abuse

EPS 12 sen lousy? BIMB a con with TP RM 5.87?

Posted by cpo_ > 2017-11-09 15:58 | Report Abuse

CPO up RM 13 to RM 2833.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/

Posted by rlch > 2017-11-10 09:27 | Report Abuse

If CPO can rise to RM 3000 like some analyst forecast why must SOP drop? Rising oil not indicate CPO will rise?

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-10 12:02 | Report Abuse

@probability , i am not familiar with the price trend in timber market , sorry unable to comment.

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-10 12:39 | Report Abuse

BIMB puts the TP at RM 5.87 is reasonable , give abit of time, few months may be , will get there.

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-14 07:55 | Report Abuse

for reference
-------------------
Wilmar profits dip, as Indonesia's biodiesel setbacks bite
News
13 Nov 2017
by Mike Verdin

Wilmar International unveiled a slightly bigger-than-expected drop in earnings, undermined by factors including a delay to sales from its Australian sugar business, and a drop in Indonesian biodiesel quota.

The Singapore-based agricultural trading giant, in which US major Archer Daniels Midland in August raised its stake to 24.9%, revealed a drop of 5.7% to $370.0m in earnings for the July-to-September quarter, below the $378m figure that investors had expected.

The decline - heralded at the end of last month by ADM, which said that Wilmar’s results had been “lower than anticipated” – defied what Wilmar termed a “robust performance” in oilseeds and grains, in which it reported a 2.3% rise to $253.7m in pre-tax profits.

The division’s gains, on revenues up 16.8% at $5.54bn, reflected “higher crush volume and good crush margins”, said Wilmar, the largest crusher in China, and which claims a global workforce of some 90,000 people.

Sugar sales delays

However, this “good performance” was “offset by weaker results in the tropical oils and sugar businesses”, Wilmar said.

Underlying group earnings fell by 15.9% to $323.7m, said the company, which reported revenues flat at $11.1bn.

Wilmar, which in 2010 paid Aus$15bn for Sucrogen, the sugar business of Sydney-based CSR, reported a 13.05 drop to $75.2m in pre-tax profits from sugar, “due to timing effects from the new Australian sugar marketing programme”.

Under this scheme, a “certain proportion of sugar produced would only be sold in the subsequent quarters”, said the group, which six months ago agreed concessions on sales to end an 18-month dispute with cane growers.

‘Lower processing margins’

In tropical oils – typically by far the biggest earner for the group, which is the world’s top palm oil processor – pre-tax profits tumbled 51% to $83.1m.

While reporting growth in yields and volumes at its own oil palm plantations, “lower processing margins affected the overall performance of the segment”, Wilmar said.

And sales volumes dropped 2.9% to 5.75m tonnes, “mainly due to lower biodiesel quota awarded in Indonesia”, which has seen setbacks from punitive import levies from the European Union and US to its plans to promote the biofuel.

Indonesia is estimated to have more than 11m tonnes in annual output capacity of biodiesel, yet consumes less than 3m tonnes itself, leaving producers largely reliant on exports to maintain volumes and margins.

Quota cut

In fact, Indonesia awarded Wilmar’s Bioenergi Indonesia business 175.3m litres in biodiesel quota to state energy company Pertamina for the May-to-October period, down from 241.4m litres the previous six months.

For the six months starting this month, the quota was lifted to 192.0m litres.

Nonetheless, Kuok Khoon Hang, the Wilmar chairman and chief executive, forecast a “satisfactory” performance for the tropical oils and sugar divisions in the current October-to-December quarter, with the oilseeds and grains business to see its “good performance” continue.

“With good economic performance in key Asian countries, we remain optimistic about the future of Asia,” he added.

The results were released after the close of Singapore’s stock market, where Wilmar shares closed up 0.3% at Sing$3.32.

Posted by rlch > 2017-11-15 16:31 | Report Abuse

CPO rebound why not SOP?

Posted by curious2 > 2017-11-16 11:07 | Report Abuse

CPO up why SOP drop?
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-16 15:13 | Report Abuse

just weak sentiment in overall malaysian market,there is a need to change of existing government.

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-16 16:39 | Report Abuse

When will announce qtr3 result, high expectation, qrtr3 production volume and CPO all better than qtr2, wish profit can hit 80 milllion above. :D

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-16 20:17 | Report Abuse

October 2017 M.TONNES
FFB 130,861
CRUDE PALM OIL 33,369
PALM KERNEL 7,171

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-17 12:58 | Report Abuse

if we compare SOP with united plantation (UP)whose q3 result just out 2 days ago, profit is 98 millions,

if SOP too can achieve 80-90m for the q3,

what do you think ,the share price should be?

share capital for United Plant is 370m and SOP IS 570M.

and market share value for UP=28.00 RM, and SOP=4.40 RM, very interesting.

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-17 15:36 | Report Abuse

If profit hit 80m above mean eps is around 14cent, I believe q4 also can provide fantasy result. This company 50% plant below age 10 years and 30% plant between 10 to 20 years, mean 80% plants consider young and within next few years should be also high production too. I think this company serious undervalued, dunt worry about share price temporary drop, maybe can change the mindset "that is a good opportunity to collect some more". :p

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-17 18:45 | Report Abuse

United plant share capital 207m, q3 profit 98m, q3 eps 0.47cents, PE 15.75, attractive dividend yield.
Sop share capital 570m, q3 profit "if 80m", then q3 eps 0.14 cents, Ref today share price 4.39 then PE "will 9.75", dividend not so attractive, but in 2008 got bonus issue 1:1.

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-17 19:00 | Report Abuse

Conclusion sop haven't re-rating share price, almost ppl like to chase the uptrend share price, anyway I prefer buy it when is undervalue and wait, invest safe and sleep well. Happy invest, I am not call buy, I just share wat I had seen in this counter value. :D

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-18 14:02 | Report Abuse

United plant share capital(000)
--------------------------
2017 --Share capital 390,054

2016--
share capital 208,134
Share premium - 181,920

share consider 390m or 208m ?

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-18 14:03 | Report Abuse

http://www.unitedplantations.com/Investor/Announcements.asp?CategoryEN=Interim%20Report&Year=2017

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-18 17:08 | Report Abuse

Hi enning 22 , a bit confuse for me, since 2017 the share premium had became a part of share capital, but how come without offer bonus issue, is it on going to process soon. I think still using 208m share capital to calculate then just can get 47cents eps.

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-20 16:14 | Report Abuse

INDIA 19,nov 2017, announced to hikes duty on edible oils imports, caused most vegetable oils in world market to tumble.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/oilseed-crushers-rejoice-as-centre-hikes-duty-on-edible-oils/article9966704.ece

Posted by G-boy > 2017-11-20 21:31 | Report Abuse

enning22...i also wonder why SOP profit margin so low compare with Unitedplant~
I didnt go thru the annual report, just thru the figure from platform~

I also bought SOP base on the revenue comparison with other plantation company.

Posted by G-boy > 2017-11-20 21:38 | Report Abuse

i think only reason why SOP cannot go up very high is the dividend payout.
Once SOP give more than 50% as dividend,i cannot imagine how high the share price could fly.haha

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-21 21:38 | Report Abuse

莫实得种植(BPLANT，5254)第3季在巨额特别盈利撑场下，净利大起14.7倍，董事局宣布派特别股息之余，亦以5送2比例分送红股。

在截至9月30日止的第3季里，莫实得种植的营收下滑了8%，至1亿8343万令吉；净利则高达5亿6242万令吉，暴涨14.7倍。主因是公司出售部份园丘获得一笔5亿5487万令吉的特别盈利。

换成每股计算的净利是35.15仙，董事局宣布派发10仙股息，其中3仙是中期股息；7仙是特别股息。

另外，董事局亦宣布以5送2比例，分送6亿4000万股红股。

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-22 14:13 | Report Abuse

Unitedplant very old company, since very beginning oilpalm industry first introduced in to malaysia, may be 50-60 years ago.UP's cost of production only 900 ringgit per tonnes,little expenditure other then fertilizerand harvesting cost. read the 2016 annual report. SOP had just bot new plantation, and not fully planted , some plantation acreage still under new plants and some yet to be planted , and so not being fully productive,need time to grow and get mature, any way check the FFB (fresh fruit bunches) has been increasing year to year,q to q.

Posted by Invest_168 > 2017-11-22 14:28 | Report Abuse

Very Good Prospect Company! Don't miss it! Buy on weakness. Greedy when people fear is the key to win in Stock Market!

Posted by Khoojack > 2017-11-22 15:31 | Report Abuse

Choose correct counter, invest it, keep cool from market share price up and down. :p

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-22 16:55 | Report Abuse

印度大幅上调食用油进口关税，或造成棕榈油进口下滑
粮油信息网　 2017/11/22 9:48:21 　
　　据进口商和贸易商称，在年底之前印度棕榈油进口量可能减少，因为印度政府将食用油进口关税上调至十几年来的最高水平。
　　印度是全球最大的食用油进口国。
　　印度上周五晚些时候宣布，把毛棕榈油进口关税从15%提高到30%，精炼棕榈油进口关税从25%提高到40%。
　　周一，马来西亚衍生品交易所（BMD）毛棕榈油期货下跌逾3%，创下三个月来的最低水平2626令吉/吨。
　　新加坡辉立期货公司驻吉隆坡分析师David Ng称，短期需求将会受到主要的冲击，因为这将会造成价格大幅上涨。不过印度国内的油籽产量无法满足国内的全部需求。
　　Ruchi Soya公司总经理Dinesh Shahra称，关税上调可能提振印度国内油籽价格，从而鼓励农户出售油籽，提高油用油籽供应。
　　印度油籽加工商一直无法与来自印尼、马来西亚、巴西和阿根廷的低廉进口供应竞争，因此对国产油菜籽和大豆的需求下滑。在现货市场上，国内油菜籽和大豆价格一直低于政府制定的最低价格，令农户愤怒。
　　周一，印度豆油和毛棕榈油期货价格大幅上涨，以4%的涨幅涨停。
　　孟买某国际贸易公司的贸易商称，进口商将先清空早先的库存，然后观察国内价格何时稳定，再决定12月份的进口。12月份的食用油进口量估计约为60万吨。
　　虽然市场人士预期到食用油进口关税上调，但是上调幅度令他们吃惊。这位贸易商称，许多进口商已经提前按照早先的进口关税出售棕榈油。他们将很难履行合同。
　　印度10月份棕榈油进口量约为75万吨。但是全年的食用油进口量可能高于上年的水平。
　　印度炼油协会总经理B.V. Mehta称，全年的进口量不太可能显著变化，因为国内油籽供应有限，而需求旺盛。
　　食用油进口商Sunvin集团的总经理Sandeep Bajoria称，本年度印度可能进口1550万吨食用油，低于早先预测的1590万吨。

Posted by limch > 2017-11-22 20:44 | Report Abuse

Delay QR means more drop? Maybank is not good in defending their promoted ctr. Can recommend other IB?

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-22 22:57 | Report Abuse

印度炼油协会总经理B.V. Mehta称，全年的进口量不太可能显著变化，因为国内油籽供应有限，而需求旺盛。 that means india will buy as much as last year,and they see little changes in the total volumn in their import.

Posted by Invest_168 > 2017-11-23 08:53 | Report Abuse

When a good prospect company (like SOP)share price tumble due to market fear as it's fundamental remained unchange, it's time for us to grab some. Think in different way in stock market will be rewarded.

Posted by limch > 2017-11-23 09:29 | Report Abuse

Maybank said TP 4.9 also want to con?
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptg/5126.jsp

Posted by limch > 2017-11-23 09:31 | Report Abuse

Friends in i3 I ask what IB don't con their customers can recommend?

Posted by Invest_168 > 2017-11-23 09:57 | Report Abuse

People start to buy on weakness....RM4.2X still very attractive price!

Posted by Invest_168 > 2017-11-23 10:09 | Report Abuse

The report issue by IB is just for our reference & guideline. Buy or sell only based on IB report will be very dangerous in stock market.

Posted by limch > 2017-11-23 10:14 | Report Abuse

I trust CPO stocks bec every month got report FFB output and we also read CPO price every day. Other sectors even good QR(past) not sure the next 1 should be equally good(eg HRC).

Posted by cpo_ > 2017-11-24 10:37 | Report Abuse

Yesterday big buy q at closing time why disappear today?

Posted by enning22 > 2017-11-28 12:14 | Report Abuse

EVENING 5: The taxman is coming

Banks, taxpayers and companies are on IRB’s hitlist as the taxman looks to collect RM134.7 billion in 2018. Meanwhile, lawyers say there are 'substantial merits' to reverse Stanley Thai’s conviction for insider trading.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/content/evening-5-taxman-coming-1

Posted by limch > 2017-11-28 12:31 | Report Abuse

Oil price now up so CPO tax can reduce?

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 2017-11-29 17:41 | Report Abuse

QR released, closed to my prediction of 55m.

Posted by Sarawakians > 2017-12-13 09:15 | Report Abuse

SOP not Sarawak stocks? How to vote like in 2016? We want RM 5.

Posted by rlch > 2017-12-15 15:07 | Report Abuse

BIMB TP RM 5.87 RM 2 away why must sell? Buy.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/42736.jsp

Posted by cpo_ > 2017-12-15 16:11 | Report Abuse

CPO up RM 30+. China buying?
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/

Posted by rlch > 2017-12-19 09:06 | Report Abuse

Add more 3.92. SOP QR far better than U Malacca EPS 6.14 sen.

Posted by limch > 2017-12-20 10:38 | Report Abuse

Everyday must talk here if not someone will short? BIMB TP RM 5.87 and Maybank TP still far behind.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/42736.jsp

Posted by rlch > 2017-12-28 12:44 | Report Abuse

CPO close off low now. CPO can close green like yesterday?
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/derivatives/prices/

Posted by pakatan_harapan2 > 2017-12-29 09:35 | Report Abuse

DAP(PH) better?

Posted by rlch > 2018-01-03 12:11 | Report Abuse

Maybank as my IB not good so must change this year? I promote FGV why they cannot promote SOP?

Posted by Khoojack > 2018-01-03 17:43 | Report Abuse

Nice to see ur all still here :p
A bit disappoint for this QR result