Target Price RM1.75; Expected Tasco announced that YLTC Sdn Bhd (a 60:40 JV between Yee Lee Corporation Bhd and Tasco Bhd) had entered into a purchase contract with Shell Malaysia Trading Sdn BHd. For counter updates and daily picks whatsap at 60 115796 8095
md1961 - Earlier they enter into the long term agreement with Shell and many thought the share price will shoot up, but end up no impact but went downward instead....
TASCO steadily keep sliding down bit by bit... hopefully will rebound soon. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------:() peachgirl md1961 - Earlier they enter into the long term agreement with Shell and many thought the share price will shoot up, but end up no impact but went downward instead.... 23/10/2018 15:51
2Q19 result was a really big disappointment for shareholders of Tasco with profit falling to only RM2.7mil from RM9.1mil achieve a year ago. The dismal 2Q19 performance was mainly due to
1) the underperformace of ocean freight forwarding division which recorded a loss of RM200k in PBT vs 2Q18 profit of RM3.6mil. Reason being is the significant drop in revenue and volume especially from solar panel customers.
2) the below par result of the contract logistic division which saw a fall in PBT by more than 60% to only RM3.6mil from the RM9.2mil in 2Q18. The fall was caused by lower occupancy rate of warehouse in the southern region, higher initial ops expenses for new supply chain business to Shell (JV with Yee Lee Corp) and reduce revenue from Regional Distribution Center in KLIA.
3) the higher financing cost of RM5.9mil vs only RM2.7mil back in 2Q18. The higher financing cost is related to the acquisition of land and warehouse in Pulau Indah.
Apart from the higher initial operation cost from new supply chain business, all of the other remaining causes for the lower profit in 2Q19 are expected to remain in the foreseeable future. With this in mind investors need to be prepare for the company to post a quarterly profit of only between RM3mil to RM4mil for the rest of FY19 (and potentially going into FY20).
Based on the assumptions above, Tasco would most probably end the FY19 with a profit to shareholder of around RM16mil which means at the current share price, the company is trading at a valuation of 15.6x PE. This valuation is not that high compared to other logistics player but investors need to be prepared for the company to post potentially small profit growth (if that is even possible) given the very challenging logistic market at the moment. With an oversupply of logistic services, everyone is expected to cut their service offering price to clients in order to chase a smaller piece of the market pie. This will most probably affect their profit margins.
The only bright spot for Tasco at the moment is their cold chain transportation business but that is still relatively small when compared to the whole of its business. Given that the company has already control a big portion of the cold chain logistic market (as an example, it already has 80% of the ice cream transportation business in Malaysia) any growth in revenue from this segment is expected to be low (unless if they decide to do another round of M&A which I doubt).
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Tasco (due to its relatively high valuation and weak earnings outlook), I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Lim Tek Wai
2,386 posts
Posted by Lim Tek Wai > 2018-08-13 12:00 | Report Abuse
huge profit, nicee