I bought this one mistakenly betting on a 'double bottom' in 2019 @ 4.39, just 3 mths b4 the craziness of 2020 turned the world upside down...luckily averaged down @ 3.04 in 2020 so my cost is 3.767 all in.
Today, I was looking for a stock to bring me to 612 days of capital gains in a row & noticed UMW being likely to open high @ 3.83 so I SOLD 2/3 of my trapped shares @ the open & earned a little, not counting the dividends already received since purchase.
Was also turned off by all the analysts strongly promoting this stock so am glad to liberate some capital before the long weekend :)
Major screw-ups like Sapnrg( from '18-'20), Serbak('21), DLady( '19 till now) & Econbhd(ongoing) just hush hush sweep under the carpet coz hundreds of millions coming in every mth to cover up all the holes.
After selling off my DLady @ $64.32 in Oct '18 ,seeing the evidence of increased milk competition in the supermarkets, I re-entered my long position $18.90 cheaper than my original cost in Nov '13 recently(below $30)
I don't like analyst as well(esp those secretly promoting their in-house proprietary positions to offload on unsuspecting victims) but IMO this stock will find it hard to dip below 21.80 before the ex-dividend date...
In my 28 years trading the markets, I have found them to be very humbling. I should know, after flaming out 3 times since 1994...but the mystery, magic & allure of this El Dorado, where a select minority reaps outsized rewards without opting for the slave system that the majority mindlessly adhere to, is what keeps me going...& last year I repeated the '21 feat of earning at least one capital gain every single day the local market was open. Something I was not able to do even in the bullish '17-'18 period...a total of 598 days in a row dating back to Jul 2020(it reached 600 yesterday).
Well worth the emotional toll of coming back from defeat 3 times!
Bursa ppl now behaving like govt dept...can't be bothered to spend time & effort to investigate coz their fee income is more than enough to pay these ppl's salaries... in fact, the penny stock activity enrich them becoz of the enormous volumes from churning & cheating retailers...serious conflict of interest going on. Same prob as supposedly more advanced S'pore next door which has hordes of DEAD ultra penny stocks that has caused million$ of losses to retailers over the years...a reminder of this being the recent 36-yr sentence handed down to ex-M'sian syndicate goreng king John Soh.
Nothing is going to happen I can almost guarantee it!
If you want to eat your own durians but are unwilling to plant the seed & be patient for the fruit to materialise in divine timing, then don't bother desiring home-grown durians.
If you want to earn from the market, but are unwilling to water the seed of that desire with learning about the nature of this beast & how it repeats cycles of euphoria & depression and being patient with Mr.Market catching up to your foresight, then don't touch the market.
I dug out my copy of Peter Lynch's book which I bought in '15 & perused it again after many years...he also mentions that stocks can morph between the categories of cyclical, turnaround & asset stocks & even be a combination of all of them at certain points in time.
What stuck out for me this reading was he mentioned that a stock can go nowhere for years & years before finally making a big move up...my Oriental comes under this category lol
Good stocks can also show paper losses for YEARS! That's the humbling lesson from my involvement with Oriental Hlgs in '14...which I finally cashed out profitably this year. So now I don't mind paper losses...after this & my experience with Comcorp & MGM China in Hong Kong.
When CHINA is involved better think 3x (even better 100x) b4 touching! It's true the China-based Sino Hua-An become my most profitable stock ever in 2017/2018 BUT eventually it also turned into a rubbish co....fortunately, after I exited completely...
No use discussing when the factors determining the final no.are so varied & unknown, with the BPI fluctuating between 1,460 & 2,236 between Oct 1 & now...I stick to my forecast of a small +ve EPS to be announced end-Feb '23.
Their 2 ships are actually Kamsarmax which is 85k > 70k upper limit for Panamax class. I expect these 2 will command higher charter rates than Panamax & I disagree with the loss forecast, predicting 0.5-1.1c EPS