Posted by TaiMeiLi > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

I think Trump will only do trade war instead of real war 💣

Posted by dtlp16 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Trump anti free trade. He will start to impose tariffs once he becomes PoTUS

Posted by Aero1 > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

The house said it is avoiding all names under its coverage, namely Hartalega Holdings Bhd (KL:HARTA) (underperform; target price or TP: RM2.33), Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd (KL:KOSSAN) (underperform; TP: RM1.48), Top Glove Corp Bhd (KL:TOPGLOV) (underperform; TP: 75 sen) and Supermax Corp Bhd (KL:SUPERMX) (underperform; TP: 83 sen).

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/719944

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1362621

Posted by Albukhary > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

随着行业供需调整，库存逐步消化，一次性手套销量开始出现较快增长。从价格来看，2024年二季度丁腈手套出口价格已经企稳回升，至5月底，出口均价已连续3个月实现月度环比价格提升，一次性手套行业经营拐点已经出现。

2024年一季度，英科医疗(26.220, -0.66, -2.46%)实现营收22.03亿元，同比增长40.06%，实现扣非净利润1.61亿元，同比增长194.63%。业绩大增主要原因是销量的增长，另外，2024年上半年实现净利润5.5亿元至6.2亿元，同比增长87.61%-111.49%，原因是产能利用率提升及销售均价较2023年同期有所提升。

业绩拐点已现

华创证券将一次性手套行业分为三个发展阶段：第一阶段是平稳期，2020年以前，行业处于平稳运行期，供需稳定；第二阶段是狂热期，2020年开始，疫情暴发带来一次性手套需求量飙升，但由于手套差产能难以在短时间内扩充，供需错位下一次性手套价格快速上涨，量价齐升下相关企业实现了业绩的显著增长。为了进一步吸收潜在订单，国内外相关厂商提出了扩产计划；第三阶段为冷静期，2020年之后，疫苗接种逐渐普及，新冠疫情也逐步得到控制，导致一次性手套需求量降低，此外市场新增产能开始投放，同时原材料成本开始下降，一次性手套价格进入下行通道，行业在供需关系调整中逐渐回归理性。

2022年，英科医疗营收和净利润同比分别下降59.27%、91.53%，中红医疗(9.170, -0.08, -0.86%)营收净利润同比分别下降67.97%、97.14%，蓝帆医疗(4.360, -0.02, -0.46%)的健康防护产品销售收入同比下降46.6%；2023年，英科医疗营业收和净利润同比分别变化4.61%、-39.12%，中红医疗收和净利润同比分别变化33.87%、-295.57%，蓝帆医疗的健康防护产品销售收入同比下降4.77%。

营收大幅下降原因主要为销售价格的下降。以英科医疗为例，2019年公司个人防护类产品营业收入和销售量分别为17.69亿元、155.09亿只，可知单价约为114.09元/千只。2020年和2021年，个人防护类产品营业收入为134.52亿元、158.07亿元，销售量为247.64亿只、404.51亿只，由此可大致算得一次性手套单价分别为543.21元/千只、390.78元/千只，然而2022年和2023年，个人防护类产品营业收入为60.05亿元、61.8亿元，销售量为463.82亿只、615.93亿只，即单价分别为129.47元/千只、100.34元/千只，2023年甚至低于疫情前水平。

根据英科医疗2024年度一季报，当期营业收入增长主要是报告期订单增加、销量增加。而就价格而言，机构判断价格调整已经进入尾声。

从供给端来看，各手套厂商目前已经暂停产能扩张，而且小厂商在手套价格下行过程中陆续出清，经销商库存基本消化完成，供给过剩压力已经得到极大缓解。

根据顶级手套2023年3月16日发布的2023年二季度财务季度（2022年12月至2023年2月）报告，丁腈手套销量出现环比回升，价格环比降幅大幅收窄，表明一次性手套渠道库存去化周期已经临近尾声。此外顶级手套同时公告，由于手套行业面临亏损和成本上升，手套平均售价已经于2023年2月起开始上调。而在宣布提价随后的两个多月里，顶级手套股价最高涨幅超过50%，贺特佳同时间段股价最高涨幅超过40%。

顶级手套提到，马来西亚的手套制造商已将手套的平均售价从17美元/千只提高到21美元/千只，新冠事件前丁腈手套的价格平均约为20-22美元/千只。从2月初开始上调价格后，公司手套平均售价增加了10%-20%，预计3-5月的交货期将继续提价，每月价格增量5-10%。

华创证券指出，2023年初，国产丁腈手套价格约为15美元/千只，马来西亚丁腈手套价格约为17美元/千只，其中2美元价差源自于美国对中国征收的关税，属于合理价差。2023年上半年，马来西亚手套厂商开始陆续涨价，但国产厂商仍然维持原价，将促进国产丁腈手套价格上行。

从丁腈手套出口价格来看，自2022年全球需求量下滑开始至2023年末，手套出口价格一直在持续走低，但2024年二季度已出现价格企稳回升趋势。根据海关总署的数据，医用丁腈手套5月出口均价达到16.57美元/千只，环比4月提升4.0%，已经连续3个月实现月度环比价格提升。

国内份额提升

全球一次性手套生产主要集中在东南亚和中国，疫情以前国内厂商整体产能规模与马来西亚头部厂商差距较大。据国盛证券统计，2019年马来西亚头部厂商顶级手套、贺特佳与高产柅品产能合计超过1350亿只，而同期国内头部厂商英科医疗、蓝帆医疗与中红医疗产能合计470亿只。

疫情爆发后，一次性医疗手套的需求显著增加，供不应求下手套价格大幅上涨，手套需求和价格于2021年一季度达到峰值水平，以一次性丁腈手套为例，其价格曾增至之前的4-5倍。2020年、2021年全球一次性手套销量分别达到6527亿只、7670亿只，同比分别增长23.4%、17.5%，销售收入达到192亿美元、264亿美元，同比分别增长118.2%、37.5%。

市场需求爆发之下，全球手套厂商尤其是国内厂商开始加速扩产，产能规模大幅提升，其中以马来西亚的顶级手套和中国的英科医疗扩建产能最快。国内头部厂商与马来西亚头部厂商之间的产能差距显著缩小。

2021年马来西亚头部厂商顶级手套、贺特佳与高产柅品产能合计1775亿只，两年增长31%，而国内头部厂商英科医疗、蓝帆医疗与中红医疗产能合计 1475亿只，增长2倍以上。

2022年随着行业景气度下降，国内外手套龙头均降低了扩产进度和数量。顶级手套在2021年9月产能为1000亿只/年，预计2025年其产能预计扩张至2010亿只/年；2023年披露的最新扩产计划显示，产能仍为1000亿只/年，至2025年产能预计扩张至1150亿只/年。

2022年，英科医疗陆续终止了临湘市年产400亿只（4000万箱）高端医用手套项目、夏邑年产131亿只（1310万箱）PVC高端医用手套项目、年产50亿只TPE手套和50亿只CPE手套项目。

至2023年，顶级手套、贺特佳与高产柅品产能分别为950亿只、310亿只、320亿只，合计1580亿只，国内头部厂商英科医疗、蓝帆医疗与中红医疗产能分别为790亿只、480亿只、260亿只，合计1530亿只。

目前，马来西亚一次性手套产量占全球的65%，中国占20%，其他国家占15%。相比疫情前的2019年，中国市占率已有显著提升：2019年，英科医疗市占率2%，蓝帆医疗3%，中红医疗2%，然而2022年，上述厂商市占率分别达到了7%、5%、2%。华创证券指出，由于国产手套厂商新建产能占比较高，产线自动化程度较高，在产线成本控制上较马来西亚厂商存在一定优势。

行业具备成长性

前期大幅扩产导致阶段性的产能过剩，但从中长期来看，行业需求仍然保持持续增长的趋势。

2017-2022年，全球一次性手套销量分别为4409亿只、4947亿只、5290亿只、6527亿只、7670亿只、6225亿只，销售收入分别为75亿美元、85亿美元、88亿美元、192亿美元、264亿美元和117亿美元。未来随着民众的健康卫生意识提升、不断沉淀防护用品的使用习惯，以及医疗行业针对手套使用标准的规范制定，预计全球一次性手套行业还将保持稳定增长。

从人均使用量看，发展中国家及地区一次性手套人均使用量远低于发达国家及地区水平。2020年，荷兰手套人均使用量为317只、美国人均使用量300只，而中国大陆人均使用量仅为9只，印尼人均使用量为6只，与发达国家和地区的人均使用量水平相比，有巨大的增长空间。

首创证券(19.900, -0.18, -0.90%)表示，重大疫情的发生会带来短期需求量的激增，例如2010年的HINI疫情、2012年的MERS疫情、2014年的EBOLA疫情。疫情过后手套市场会经历一个调整期， 2011年和2015年全球一次性手套需求出现下滑，但通常调整时间约为1年左右，在次年均恢复正向增长。虽然2022年一次性手套需求下降，但仍高于疫情前2019年的水平。

其认为，一次性手套行业属于成长性行业，调整期过后仍然会恢复正常增长。随着渠道库存的消化、使用场景拓展和发展中国家渗透率提升等有利因素，终端需求有望恢复增长，一次性手套的采购需求将逐步恢复正常。

Posted by TaiMeiLi > 1 month ago | Report Abuse

Nice 👍

https://www.adobomagazine.com/campaign-spotlight/hartalegas-care-with-every-wear-campaign-expands-to-europe-with-fcb-shout/

Posted by Albukhary > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

August will be the month for Glove Counter to outperform.
Harta have chance to hit RM3.70.

Posted by TaiMeiLi > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Harta will make hundreds of millions of MYR in FY2025 😊

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

KENANGA is your best friend I know. They always down play glove. By the way, the chart for 'DEMAND' does not account for Malaysia cut production capacity in 2023/24. Also other player like Thailand and China cutting production. Their valuation is the most ridiculous bcoz they don't take account on cash holding in Kossan and Hartalega.

NatsukoMishima

https://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/1362621

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@TaiMeiLi, 2025 is finally almost here, the supposed year where glove supply and demand equilibrium is expected to balance out.

@Chipee I'm not overly optimistic about the Aug QR though. Better be prepared for the worst, and hodl, better things will come. US election later this year could bring in some irrational buyers.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Yeah, This is for the long run. But I don't have Harta. I have Kossan.

YourQuirkyWays29

@Chipee I'm not overly optimistic about the Aug QR though. Better be prepared for the worst, and hodl, better things will come. US election later this year could bring in some irrational buyers.

Posted by SonniaFang > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I expect Harta will make a net profit of between RM30 mil - 50 mil in upcoming quarter

Posted by dawchok > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.malaymail.com/news/money/2024/07/30/maybank-ib-downgrades-glove-sector-to-tactical-positive-amid-persistent-challenges/145445

Posted by dawchok > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Maybank ib visited Intco and Blue sail in China and concluded Malaysia gloves uncertainty.

Posted by dawchok > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

However TP to Harta by MBB is still at RM 4.28. Not bad if you agree to it.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Interesting that they actually went there and sighted the factories. But like what was mentioned in the article, no one knows what the China glovemaker's market strategy moving forward. Given that there's so much geopolitical uncertainty nowadays, i would think that playing it safe and building reserves is the way, but who knows, maybe they'll keep being aggresive and hope that they can expand + keep their current market share.

Posted by dawchok > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Intco ventures into Indonesia and so far the progress is good and Intco is optimistic. But some industry players foresee Intco will face challenges as many others encountered in Indo.

Posted by dawchok > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Indo was chosen for coal burning which is cheaper than gas burning in Msia and Thai.

Posted by Babyking > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

not bad. at least have 0.35 sen dividend

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The only fear of China gloves is them undercutting in ASP. Lets think this logically.

TopGlove ASP is $17. Operational Loss
Hartalega ASP is $21. Operational Loss
Kossan ASP is $16. Operational Profit
China ASP is $16. Operational Profit

Logic 1:
Is China operation so cost effective and "special" that they are still in operational profit although selling at lower ASP?
Answer is NO. If that is true, then Kossan should be in operation loss like other Msian gloves company. Since Kossan is making operational profit, this can only mean LOWER ASP are STEALING ORDERS from HIGHER ASP glove makers. Demand being limited, hitting the right volume will make operational profit. China "high tech" operation is NOTHING SPECIAL. Hartalega and Kossan have automation in their production. They are also very "high tech".

Logic 2:
Can China expanded production capacity kills Msia glove makers by stealing orders with lower ASP?
Answer is NO. Four biggest Msian glove companies had already cut production capacity in 2023/24 to reduce losses. So if China expand bigger, the higher FIXED COST will bring their operation to losses. Glove is a thin profit margin product. It's balance between ASP and VOLUME to be profitable. China cannot afford to lower their ASP further (Back to Logic 1: China "high tech" is not special).

Logic 3:
Then why China expanded their production capacity?
Bcoz of covid, ALL glove makers expanded their production capacity. China had zero-covid policy which extended the life of their expanded capacity. China will make losses if TopGlove and Hartalega lower their ASP to $16. This will easily kill of China glove makers. It is all about GETTING THE VOLUME ORDER or demand increases. If China is smart, they too should reduce production capacity (But apparently, they are not).

China only has ONE tactic ... throw price. But US tariff of 25% in 2026 will kill them. If Donald Trumps win, 60% tariff will definitely kill them and we don't need to wait until 2026. Lets hope Trump wins.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

US market covers 30% of global glove demand. But higher tariff will improve Msia glove ASP significantly and GETTING 30% of the GLOBAL VOLUME ORDER.
$16 x 1.25 = $20.
Msia just need to sell at $19 to kick China's order out of US.
China glove will definitely go into LOSSES with LOWER VOLUME.

As for 70% of the global market, Malaysia can just follow China's price to be competitive.

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

The biggest joke is Maybank analyst visited China production and got glittered eyes. They see touchscreen and "high tech" stuff and they lost their minds. Ridiculous ..... 😂

Posted by SWT1988 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

what happened to harta? going back below 2.50 again?

Posted by SWT1988 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

hopefully can tahan above 2.90

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Maybank report on China gloves spooked them. The Star paper.

SWT1988

what happened to harta? going back below 2.50 again?

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Negative reaction to dividend, surprising. I took it positively though, sending me positive signals that management is confident with their cash reserves.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Huge volume, should be institutional investor exiting.

Posted by godhand > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

nothing to do with dividend la. dp 60% u can literally count the dividend

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

35 sen, not bad...will definitely attend the coming up AGM, date just nice before my year end backpacking overseas trip

Posted by SWT1988 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

@Chipee, thank for the info. Technical rebound after touching oversold position this morning. Bad if closing weak today

Posted by Babyking > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

not 35 sen. but 0.35 sen


Cerubic 35 sen, not bad...will definitely attend the coming up AGM, date just nice before my year end backpacking overseas trip
31/07/2024 11:59 AM

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

China can beat apple , tesla elon musk , what difficult to beat malaysia peanut glove company ! Still dreaming in 2020 , that s y people call u glove tard !

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hold longer lost bigger !

Posted by Chipee > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hahaha ... I knew this Natsuko will reappear.

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

...salah tulis 0.35 sen :>...with dividend is better than with no dividend at all :)

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Still a gem in my tabung melabur...long term investment receiving dividend every now and then :)

Posted by Aero1 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

a gem only when they are able to differentiate distinctly from those in china

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Not big shot investor, just a lonnnnnnnnnng term investor and comfortable with the return so far...don't know why the naysayers still continue mentioning losses when the company is still kicking and alive as of to date

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Ringgit up , malaysia glove peanut profit will also gone bro ! Good luck to all ! The worst is yet to come !

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Wah , RHB want bring u all to holland !

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Boring same old same ...the big China....definitely they are the best of the best....but totally shooting down all the global competitors...is it possible? Simple as it is, you want to sell doesn't mean everybody will buy...like the US imposing tariff on China products....most important is how well the company withstand the challenge against them and surviving in the long term.

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Gem in my tabung melabur only :) but maybe poison for others...it is up to all the intelligent investors to decide on their own investment, it is afterall their hard earned cash in their own pocket

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Cheers Cerubic, we just keep waiting. :)

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hello Quirkyways...attending the coming up AGM on Sept. Door gift probably the same a box of COAT gloves :>

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Hopefully this time they can change the door gift to BDG, definitely want to try it on the new product

Posted by Cerubic > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

A company established since 1988 surviving the up and down in the market till to date led by a family clan, doing a great job in ESG and CSR while at the same time rewarding the shareholders from time to time via dividend is a good deal for me the small potato long term investor :). Majority here are talking bout numbers, analysis and predictions on a company that is still very much kicking and alive ain't my cup of tea. I'm no tukang tilik or bomoh. Just follow up every now and then if there are any birdies news of the company touch wood goin down under or negative report on the accounts then it is a big news :>

Posted by TaiMeiLi > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Act calmly and rationally when Harta drops like that 😌

Posted by JovaneChua > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

don't worry, Jovane is here, all gloves will rebound tomorrow, I will lead.

Posted by JovaneChua > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I focus on Top and Harta

Posted by JovaneChua > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

cannot let those short sellers and IB bully us like this