Posted by monetary > 2024-05-27 19:13 | Report Abuse

Wait for Tg Supermax results. Both will have negative impact on glove stocks. After that can buy slowly.

Posted by Lukey_Greek > 2024-05-27 19:58 | Report Abuse

Harta is the most overvalue among big 4. No more deserve for high PE for its R&D advantage if compared to China competitors. Will slowly fall back to PE comparable other peers.

Posted by Gaussian > 2024-05-27 21:16 | Report Abuse

Going to rm 3 lol

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-27 22:47 | Report Abuse

2 challenging factors still looms in gloves ... ASP and demand. And this directly affects PBT.
I see one factor is improving and that is DEMAND (Revenue increase for Kossan and Harta). China can't keep undercutting price. It affects their PBT too. China's lockdown is over. China lost their scale of production advantage by selling cheap. Their China demand has drastically dropped. Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958). They have to increase price in 2024. ASP will improve.

Biggest bomb on China for ASP is China-US rivalry. Now just rely on entry-port ban by US on China's gloves. IF Trump wins the tariff effect will be even greater than the 2026 tariff increase.

China use coal. Msia use nat gas. Both energy sources are going up in tandem. So not much difference there. Hell, if US wants to penalize China on ESG basis for using coal ... total ban on China's gloves. But we know that cannot happen la.

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2024-05-28 08:01 | Report Abuse

@YourQuirkyWays29

823 posts

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 17 hours ago | Report Abuse

if i follow your advise 2 years ago to buy dnex/swift, i will have to fold myself, not multifold.
_______
Why not u say if u follow me ride on vstecs , ranhill u already can earned huge gains n no need wasting so many years in sunset glove stocks ! Dnex , swift haulage will skyrocket also , not too late to ride on 2 of them !

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-28 10:23 | Report Abuse

Because last time you never say vstecs, when i first read your comment you only say dnex and swift, enough to ruin your reputation. Plus you are also wrong in this counter, why should i follow your comment when you get less than half correct?

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-28 15:05 | Report Abuse

divest to fintec, o&g, ems and consumer stocks. glove's future is bleak. it's for trading only. the reason glove stock so active is because croc knows retailers like gloves. they can slaughter u here.

Posted by TaiMeiLi > 2024-05-28 15:18 | Report Abuse

What an article about glove analysis from the Edge 😅

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277

Posted by newbie9893 > 2024-05-28 15:56 | Report Abuse

glove sectors might rebound very soon...watch out

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-28 18:01 | Report Abuse

What happened to gloves in Msia will also happen in China. After China lockdown is over.
1) China gloves start making losses.
(Intco Medical made OPERATING losses in 2022 (-30,467) and 2023 (-100,958).)
2) China small gloves players got eliminated.
3) Big China gloves start rationalize (reduce) their production hence impairment losses.
4) They start selling at higher ASP.

As for the article from Edge https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/712277
"Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB Research), which is neutral on the sector, shares the sentiment, commenting that Chinese players will start to gradually increase their presence in European and Asian markets to reduce US orders."

Are they saying China gloves are not already in European and Asia market now and the years before covid ? Of course they are. In order to compete is only to reduce price and gain market share in Europe and Asia. China cannot afford to do that. They are already making losses. China has no choice but REDUCE PRODUCTION because CHINA LOCKDOWN IS OVER.

Problem with analysts on China is ... China production is BIG. Look at this data from World Bank 2019
Malaysia Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 742,626,000 Kg
Thailand Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 109,800,000 Kg
China Export 401519 Gloves 2019 World 73,646,800 Kg

China is only 9.9% of Malaysia production.
------
DATA on US import of gloves in 2019
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 World 410,269,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Malaysia 258,422,000 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 Thailand 68,443,400 Kg
United States Import 401519 Gloves 2019 China 44,971,200 Kg

Malaysia covers 63% of US import. China only 10.9%.
------

COVID presented a different situation. US allow lower quality glove from China to satisfy the demand during COVID. But the OVERSUPPLY is coming mainly from Malaysia. So the ASP problem is OVERSUPPLY WORLDWIDE. But demand is slowly recovering (Kossan and Harta revenue is increasing) as oversupply depletes.

If there's concern about "flooding" the market with gloves, we should look at Topgloves instead. They are the biggest producer in the world. Not China. And TopGLove is losing money and their demand is far from their 2019 demand. They won't be flooding anytime soon.

My bet is on Kossan and Harta. Their export to US will be advantageous to them when tariff hit.

Posted by newbie9893 > 2024-05-28 18:49 | Report Abuse

supermx released super QR , QoQ & YoY +100%

Posted by newbie9893 > 2024-05-28 18:50 | Report Abuse

i predict all the glove counters will follow supermx spike up again

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-29 07:53 | Report Abuse

G morning, folks. i still believe my 3 tickets will come

Posted by Aero1 > 2024-05-29 08:23 | Report Abuse

supermax's explanation in the latest q quite frank. no surprises this year and 2025 only can do is cost control and adjustment to depreciation rates. honestly no one knows what is going to happen beyond 2025. glove counters' premium now need more justification.

Posted by Mini2021 > 2024-05-29 09:00 | Report Abuse

If tariff up to 50%, many sales in USA will change to local made factory , that time Supermx is the biggest winner as Supermx is the only one invested 3 years ago to build the manufacturing line that cost about RM 2 billion.... RM 3-4 easily achived for supermx if the tariff rise to 50% ....If 100% ...supermx will BOOM ...

Posted by Aero1 > 2024-05-29 16:35 | Report Abuse

the selling pressure will continue till next q results, if there is no positive development

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-29 18:26 | Report Abuse

Yeah we are in a weird situation, prices rallied to RM3 in anticipation of good QR and it rallied further to RM3.8 on confirmation of tariff hike. However, I believe the QR failed the expectations and the market is now adjusting to find an equilibrium.

The tariff hike is a fact, but no one can be sure what will happen, other than the fact that it sounds good from 2026 onwards, is it too early to buy because of that, who knows?

As for the QR, we are still on stabilising stage apparently, instead of the much hype of recovering back to the growing state. We will still have to see more results to know where we stand and whether and how much we can price in growths in those forward looking PE.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-29 18:28 | Report Abuse

This was the decision I had to make back then when there's still massive oversupply, production inefficiency, and loss making quarterly reports. Now that I am in the green, I can't be bothered any more. Neither do I want to sell early just to cash out the gain. Make that mistake one too many times in other counters, if you trust the counter, stick with it until you believe that the price is ridiculously overpriced, not just "overpriced".

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-29 18:36 | Report Abuse

U are too straight. No wonder the croc likes u. Do u think glove will shine in 2026? What make u think usa will not lift the tariff when asp is rising? They might not impose the said tariff. It could be a election manifesto.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-29 18:40 | Report Abuse

Public Bank TP 2.07. Omg!

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-29 18:43 | Report Abuse

Can't imagine u bet your money on politician's flip flop. Yr 2026 some more. U are croc's diner.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-29 19:10 | Report Abuse

Aiyah ... whole US, Europe and Asia market drop bcoz of US sentiment la. Nothing to do with any fundamental to any companies in Msia or Asia. All waiting for US Q1 GDP and PCE results. Expectation of US recession.

Market will drop some more tomorrow. Until results are out.

Posted by KimSua > 2024-05-29 19:18 | Report Abuse

Can start to pick the bottom, tmrow or better Friday

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-29 19:40 | Report Abuse

Better to pick up Friday. Not too late and safer.

KimSua

Can start to pick the bottom, tmrow or better Friday

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-29 20:51 | Report Abuse

Ehhh, let's see. Not sure who are the crocs and why you are so angry for ppl wanting to hold.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 03:04 | Report Abuse

Ignore this kind of people like monetary .... People trade to make money, they trade to be "right". Ego based traders lose money they won't tell you one. 😂

YourQuirkyWays29

Ehhh, let's see. Not sure who are the crocs and why you are so angry for ppl wanting to hold.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 05:44 | Report Abuse

I nvr ask to b right. I only know I eaten your money from 3.8 to 3.2.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 08:39 | Report Abuse

Eat my money? .... hahaha... I usually let beggars "eat" my money. Go ahead.


monetary

I nvr ask to b right. I only know I eaten your money from 3.8 to 3.2.

Posted by KimSua > 2024-05-30 08:43 | Report Abuse

ECB will reduce interest rate. Europe base funds might come in in anticipation of Euro going down. However US CPE data might be prove to be resilient and make US jittery again. Next week will be better to decide.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 08:53 | Report Abuse

U have all the ingredients to b loser. 1. Stubborn 2. Blame your losses to broad market 3. Take facts given by media for granted 4. Only welcome ppl who have the same views as yours 5. Oppose facts that are different from your opinion

No worry, mate. I will continue eating your money until u turned into a beggar.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 09:01 | Report Abuse

Hahaha ...what is your problem? My money. I wanna give away... I give away la. Get a life man. ..😂

monetary

U have all the ingredients to b loser. 1. Stubborn 2. Blame your losses to broad market 3. Take facts given by media for granted 4. Only welcome ppl who have the same views as yours 5. Oppose facts that are different from your opinion

No worry, mate. I will continue eating your money until u turned into a beggar.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-30 09:06 | Report Abuse

Actual fact is US will have difficulty reduce rate until they hit recession. Euro has gone through it (recession) and pulling inflation down. Now they can reduce rate. Just buy up staples that are recession proof. US GDP has higher chance coming out lower tonight.

KimSua

ECB will reduce interest rate. Europe base funds might come in in anticipation of Euro going down. However US CPE data might be prove to be resilient and make US jittery again. Next week will be better to decide.

Posted by SonniaFang > 2024-05-30 09:50 | Report Abuse

Target price: RM3.30 BUY

US trade representative Katherine Tai released a list of proposed strategic sectors (up to 14) that will be subjected to tariff hikes (or new tariffs imposed for certain products) ranging from 25% to 100%. Notably, medical gloves are included with a proposed tariff hike to 25% from 7.5%, which will take effect in 2026.

While the new tariffs are expected to be effective from 2026, this may allow Chinese manufacturers to reconsider their expansion plans into overseas markets to circumvent the tariff hike. In our view, overseas expansions could make Chinese glove makers less cost competitive (as manufacturers in China use coal, a cheaper fuel than natural gas).

We raised our FY25F/FY26F earnings for Hartalega (KL:HARTA) by 3%, taking into account a higher USD/MYR exchange rate offset by a slight increase in key raw material costs. Post-earnings adjustment, our discounted cash flow-derived TP represents 33 times FY25 PER, above its pre-Covid-19 five-year mean of 27 times. Key risks include a decrease in gloves’ average selling price, slower-than-expected capacity expansion, lower-than-expected utilisation rate, and higher-than-expected raw material price.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-30 11:11 | Report Abuse

@monetary who's money you eat? I did not sell at 3.8, I did not sell at 3.2. I did not sell at 2.9. I did not sell at 2.4. I did not sell at 1.5.

How you eat? Day dreaming?

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-30 11:28 | Report Abuse

thanks for the macro info @chipee @sonnia

Posted by TaiMeiLi > 2024-05-30 12:14 | Report Abuse

Can keep this Harta in the safe. The time you open it, it will be RM5 alrdy 🤗

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-30 14:47 | Report Abuse

Ya some ppl dam noisy trying to make others sell, don't know for what. As though Harta going down is a certainty. Diff accounts (not sure if same person) has been appearing in this forum to keep calling doomsday everything there's a bull run, and this counter has been overall up in 2 years. 2 years are too long for some ppl but not for me where I work full time job hence I do not have much time to analyse and find fundamentally strong company. Why would I just take the words of some random guy online when my analysis have been proving me right (i.e. Harta's market cap has doubled in less than 2 years)?

Say all you want, I'm not a gambler/trader, I'm not selling until I feel this counter is massively over-priced even after taking into account future possible gains. A counter can stay "overvalued" or "undervalued" for a long long time, nobody can tell when is the best time to enter/exit. Trade at your own risk, do your own research.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 18:39 | Report Abuse

I do have my right to post, correct? U can just skip. Don't read. Don't respond. Some ppl might appreciate my view.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 18:40 | Report Abuse

Today put some ais into the pool. Let the frogs cool down so they don't run. Tomorrow HOT water!

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 18:53 | Report Abuse

What an interesting theory. Some one claims he doesn't sell ppl can't eat his money. From 3.8 to 3.2 your account value remains the same? I sold at 3.7x pocketed the profit my account also remains the same? Who took money away from your account? Who put money into my account? Ghost? Really square head. Lol! Besides, your so call analysis is worth nothing. Tariff in 2026 out of the equation. China stay in the equation. Period!

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 18:59 | Report Abuse

Go flag me. Everyone has the right to know both sides of the story. Not just your story.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 19:21 | Report Abuse

USA isn't your father, guys. They won't impose tariff on China so that u can raise asp. In the end of the day they buy expensive gloves from u. The only chance they impose tariff is when they have high inventory. When inventory getting low they lift tariff again. Lol!

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-30 19:22 | Report Abuse

Don't listen to kaki lima analysts.

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-31 01:15 | Report Abuse

Take lor ... Like I said .. I always give money to beggars. It's ok. Why you so triggered? Hahahaha

monetary

What an interesting theory. Some one claims he doesn't sell ppl can't eat his money. From 3.8 to 3.2 your account value remains the same? I sold at 3.7x pocketed the profit my account also remains the same? Who took money away from your account? Who put money into my account? Ghost? Really square head. Lol! Besides, your so call analysis is worth nothing. Tariff in 2026 out of the equation. China stay in the equation. Period!

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-31 11:24 | Report Abuse

hahahah yes everyone has a right to post, just that some is more emotional than the others for unknown reason, usually ppl losing money more emotional. Whoever that sold at 3.2 put money in your account, not me. I'm talking about cash flow, not your theory of "value".

By your theory, I should have put money in other's pocket as well when it fell from 2.9 to 2.4? or when it fell from 2.4 to 1.9? It doesnt make sense, because my account shows me that my average cost is 1.9 and I have gains no matter if its at 2.4/3.2/3.8. Why would I want to cash out if 3.8 is not enough for my appetite? You can say what you want I can also buy and sell what I want. Stop telling ppl what to do. Do what you like and dont go control other people. If you lose money, its nobody else's fault other than your own.

Posted by YourQuirkyWays29 > 2024-05-31 11:28 | Report Abuse

Also, you are the one starting throwing attacks left right centre, and now want to get so triggered. I know la losing money sucks, especially when you have the word money if your username, but if you didnt bet your whole bank account then you can eventually recover if you invest smarter. Gambateh.

Just like what I told previous haters. See you at RM3 when its RM2, See you at RM4 when its RM3. Now I will tell you the same, see you at RM4/5/6/7. I will be here. You take your 60sens supposedly gain however you like, that is not enough for me.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-31 11:33 | Report Abuse

When poor ppl get your money, u are doing charity. When rich ppl get your money, u are less COMPETENT.

Chipee

Take lor ... Like I said .. I always give money to beggars. It's ok. Why you so triggered? Hahahaha


YourQuirkyWays29. U are the 1 who tag me 1st. U started it. Who is emotional? Anyway, your head is still square.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-31 11:39 | Report Abuse

I will be here too. For my 3 or lower tickets

Posted by Chipee > 2024-05-31 11:53 | Report Abuse

Competent? ..So you are competent ... Hahaha ....
You are only person I know that "makes money" and get upset with other people.
I seriously doubt you're "competent".
Normally people who make money are happy and silently looking to buy at the low.

monetary

When poor ppl get your money, u are doing charity. When rich ppl get your money, u are less COMPETENT.

Posted by monetary > 2024-05-31 12:03 | Report Abuse

Lol! Bro Chipee. Pls scoll back lar. I only mentioned 1 negative statement about Harta. Who are the frogs in hot pot jumped up and copy & paste my statement? Now u claim i m emotional, attack ppl, angry? Who are the emotional ones?