Share some post from Kossan:

tingpangeng

Let take Mr. Trump logic imposing 50% tariff on gloves manufactured outside of the USA in order to force glove manufacturers to set up plant in the USA. USA produces zero gloves with Supermax limited production capacity in the USA it still needs to import from China and Malaysia. This higher tariffs will be passed on to consumers and Americans will feel the pinch eventually. For plant to set up in the USA required time and I would reckon Mr Trump 4 years limited term is not enough to threaten glove manufacturers to come to USA as the next president will do with his own strategy. Harta , Kossan, Topglove will survive in Mr Trump administration and returns to pre covid times in terms of revenue and profits

Chipee

@tingpangeng
Totally agree with you. There's a reason manufacturing moved away from developed countries, HIGH LABOUR WAGES. The only manufacturing jobs that will flow back to US are HIGH MARGIN products like cars, handphones, and other high end products. LOW MARGIN products like gloves, textiles, etc will stay in emerging markets.

Also gloves are used globally. So if you build factory in US with such high cost, you can only sell them to US. Even with 10% tariff on Msia, it is still beneficial to manufacture in Msia. That will definitely increase inflation hence higher interest rate and higher USD. Good for Msia gloves. Remember, 10% tariff is a blanket tariff on ALL US imports. Moreso when China got hit by 60% tariff, it is still advantage to Msia gloves. We have a huge room to negotiate on the ASP hence counter the reduce orders from US.

And pls don't talk about AI in manufacturing bcoz is AI is neither free or cheap. It costs $30k-40K per chip for nvidia AI. How many chip do you need to run such operation? Or you rent data centres with Nvidia AI chips, how much does it cost? Not cheap. Definitely not cheaper than our labour cost.

And pls don't talk about AI in manufacturing bcoz is AI is neither free or cheap. It costs $30k-40K per chip for nvidia AI. How many chip do you need to run such operation? Or you rent data centres with Nvidia AI chips, how much does it cost? Not cheap. Definitely not cheaper than our labour cost.

@tingpangeng
Totally agree with you. There's a reason manufacturing moved away from developed countries, HIGH LABOUR WAGES. The only manufacturing jobs that will flow back to US are HIGH MARGIN products like cars, handphones, and other high end products. LOW MARGIN products like gloves, textiles, etc will stay in emerging markets.

Also gloves are used globally. So if you build factory in US with such high cost, you can only sell them to US. Even with 10% tariff on Msia, it is still beneficial to manufacture in Msia. That will definitely increase inflation hence higher interest rate and higher USD. Good for Msia gloves. Remember, 10% tariff is a blanket tariff on ALL US imports. Moreso when China got hit by 60% tariff, it is still advantage to Msia gloves. We have a huge room to negotiate on the ASP hence counter the reduce orders from US.

Another Msia market concern is BNM may increase OPR. But for cash rich and low debt like Kossan, this shouldn't be an issue.

Good opportunity to buy the dip. Wait for falling knife to land.

Another chance to buy the dip. Wait for the falling knife to land.

This targets can only be seen after seeing results for Q1 and Q2 2025.
Q4 2024 is basically transitional into US tariff on China. If that result trigger a selloff then a good opportunity to buy.

Slowdown in US interest rate cuts is a good thing for gloves. Keeps USD high.
Due to report of improving employment in US means US economy is resilient, market expect lesser rate cut.
Expectation of Trumps tariff will cause inflation in US = rate high = USD high.
All are good news for Msia gloves.

Slowdown in US interest rate cuts is a good thing for gloves. Keeps USD high.
Due to report of improving employment in US means US economy is resilient, market expect lesser rate cut.
Expectation of Trumps tariff will cause inflation in US = rate high = USD high.
All are good news for Msia gloves.

@YourQuirkyWays29 🤞🤞🤞💪

From the article:
The research house, which downgraded the rubber product sector to “neutral”, pointed out that Malaysia’s glove export volumes had declined 11% month-on-month (m-o-m) in November 2024.

In comparison, China’s glove export volumes grew 3% m-o-m.

“The US October 2024 order volumes surpassed the pre-pandemic two-year average monthly orders by 50%,” it said.

So why October? Because it takes 1 to 1.5 months travel from port to port. This does not include manufacturing time. So frontloading was in Oct which makes Nov & Dec a no-order-zone for China's gloves. Since frontloading was in Oct, less order comes in Nov due to "oversupply" for the month of Oct. I still believe in Dec there's significant order with Nov only drop by 11% m-o-m.

Just analyzing the data, we should see significant order for Q1-25. This frontloading factor does not apply in Q1-25.

From the article:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/10/glovemakers-to-gain-from-trade-diversion-in-us
The research house, which downgraded the rubber product sector to “neutral”, pointed out that Malaysia’s glove export volumes had declined 11% month-on-month (m-o-m) in November 2024.

In comparison, China’s glove export volumes grew 3% m-o-m.

“The US October 2024 order volumes surpassed the pre-pandemic two-year average monthly orders by 50%,” it said.

So why October? Because it takes 1 to 1.5 months travel from port to port. This does not include manufacturing time. So frontloading was in Oct which makes Nov & Dec a no-order-zone for China's gloves. Since frontloading was in Oct, less order comes in Nov due to "oversupply" for the month of Oct. I still believe in Dec there's significant order with Nov only drop by 11% m-o-m.

Just analyzing the data, we should see significant order for Q1-25. This frontloading factor does not apply in Q1-25.

Hoping for Ai ? haha?

Share comment I posted in Harta:

@YourQuirkyWays29
I believe there is no "pre-load" per say. Even if there is a "pre-load", the volume is insignificant. For the sake of getting SLIGHTLY cheaper price, US buyers order 20% more and gamble delivery cross into 2025? No-lah. ... Just order like normal base on US demand and their cash flow from Msia is the safest route. So I'm saying Chinese market share in US is flowing to Msia.

The 50%(2025) and 100% (2026) is pretty much secured by Biden. Does Trump has the power to blanket a 10% tariff on US imports? I'm not sure. I did some research and there's no definite answer. So lets assume Trump has the power... he proposed 60% in all China import and 10% on all other imports. So net is still 50% tariff on China when comes to gloves. Hence in this case, US buyers will pre-load with Msia orders for this reason to avoid the 10% tariff.
Assuming there's pre-loading from Msia gloves. Is that a problem for us long term investors? There could be a spike for Msia order in Dec & Jan then drop in Feb and March ... so what? It evens out.

I see DXY (Dollar index) hovering near 109. USD is strong. Good case for Kossan and Harta

I see DXY (Dollar index) hovering near 109. USD is strong. Good case for Kossan and Harta

And I can't believe a Topglove executive can make such dumb statement in the press. 🙄

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/09/stronger-earnings-on-the-horizon-for-top-glove

And I can't believe a Topglove executive can make such dumb statement in the press. 🙄

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/09/stronger-earnings-on-the-horizon-for-top-glove

Fear in US rising inflation is good for Kossan and Harta because the export to US for higher USD. The drop in glove is bcoz the statement made in the Star newspaper by Topglv as state above.

Higher inflation = FED increase rate = higher USD

@YourQuirkyWays29
I believe there is no "pre-load" per say. Even if there is a "pre-load", the volume is insignificant. For the sake of getting SLIGHTLY cheaper price, US buyers order 20% more and gamble delivery cross into 2025? No-lah. ... Just order like normal base on US demand and their cash flow from Msia is the safest route. So I'm saying Chinese market share in US is flowing to Msia.

The 50%(2025) and 100% (2026) is pretty much secured by Biden. Does Trump has the power to blanket a 10% tariff on US imports? I'm not sure. I did some research and there's no definite answer. So lets assume Trump has the power... he proposed 60% in all China import and 10% on all other imports. So net is still 50% tariff on China when comes to gloves. Hence in this case, US buyers will pre-load with Msia orders for this reason to avoid the 10% tariff.
Assuming there's pre-loading from Msia gloves. Is that a problem for us long term investors? There could be a spike for Msia order in Dec & Jan then drop in Feb and March ... so what? It evens out.

Correction:
And on "front-loading" effect. C'mon it's not like US buyers have INFINITE amount of cash to just order 20% more* or even more (than normal order)*.

Correction:
And on "front-loading" effect. C'mon it's not like US buyers have INFINITE amount of cash to just order 20% more* or even more (than normal order)*.

This is the statement that down the stock in the news:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/09/stronger-earnings-on-the-horizon-for-top-glove

"However, the group expects flattish sales volume in January and February due to the front-loading effects of the US customers purchasing from Chinese glove makers before the imposition of a 50% tariff effective this month compared with a 8% to 10% month-on-month (m-o-m) growth in November and December 2024."

Lets say this is true, it still doesn't matter for long term investors. We will see better results after Q1-25. However, I still anticipate improving results coming from Q4-24 and Q1-25. On the basis that US buyer do fear order and delivery time lag may cross into 2025 and ended with tariff impose upon arrival. 50% is a big gamble for delivery before 2025.

And on "front-loading" effect. C'mon it's not like US buyers have INFINITE amount of cash to just order 20% or even more. They order base on demand, storage capacity and cashflow because glove is NOT gonna run-out. They still can order from Msia gloves. So the only factor is pricing. Again, glove being a narrow margin product, would China be selling close to cost price or you would rather sell SLIGHTLY lower ASP to secure SLIGHTLY higher volume. SLIGHTLY lower ASP will definitely NOT secure a MUCH higher volume. This is NOT a LELONG scenario where China glove gonna close shop. This is a scenario where "this is the last chance I make money from US" so I try to make as much as I can.... either HIGHER ASP or HIGHER VOLUME. So with this opposing factors cancel each other out, the "front-loading" effect is insignificant.

Since we establish ASP to be SLIGHTLY lower, the biggest gamble is 50% tariff in 2025. I believe in Nov and Dec, most US buyers already placed their order with Msia glove makers. Safest route is to order from Msia or Thailand. 50% tariff or SLIGHTLY lower ASP? This is a no brainer.

This is the statement that down the stock in the news:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2025/01/09/stronger-earnings-on-the-horizon-for-top-glove

"However, the group expects flattish sales volume in January and February due to the front-loading effects of the US customers purchasing from Chinese glove makers before the imposition of a 50% tariff effective this month compared with a 8% to 10% month-on-month (m-o-m) growth in November and December 2024."

Lets say this is true, it still doesn't matter for long term investors. We will see better results after Q1-25. However, I still anticipate improving results coming from Q4-24 and Q1-25. On the basis that US buyer do fear order and delivery time lag may cross into 2025 and ended with tariff impose upon arrival. 50% is a big gamble for delivery before 2025.

And on "front-loading" effect. C'mon it's not like US buyers have INFINITE amount of cash to just order 20% or even more. They order base on demand, storage capacity and cashflow because glove is NOT gonna run-out. They still can order from Msia gloves. So the only factor is pricing. Again, glove being a narrow margin product, would China be selling close to cost price or you would rather sell SLIGHTLY lower ASP to secure SLIGHTLY higher volume. SLIGHTLY lower ASP will definitely NOT secure a MUCH higher volume. This is NOT a LELONG scenario where China glove gonna close shop. This is a scenario where "this is the last chance I make money from US" so I try to make as much as I can.... either HIGHER ASP or HIGHER VOLUME. So with this opposing factors cancel each other out, the "front-loading" effect is insignificant.

Since we establish ASP to be SLIGHTLY lower, the biggest gamble is 50% tariff in 2025. I believe in Nov and Dec, most US buyers already placed their order with Msia glove makers. Safest route is to order from Msia or Thailand. 50% tariff or SLIGHTLY lower ASP? This is a no brainer.

Mr.Kuan himself also sell. Nevermind, now CEO himself swing trade. I tot only Kossan CEO swing trade ... hehehe

EPF just bcome substantial holder again. Lets see the volume they trade in an announcement.

When big buyers buy, their volume suppressed the price. Weak hands let go.
But sometimes I think they manipulate the price. For example, sell 10,000 shares at low price to trigger panic. And buy back 100,000 shares at lower price.

You have the link to the chat website?

Ravetidus

@chipee, after u read the chat evidence posted at MyCC website then u know whether they are discussing about the rising costs of corn and soybean prices or pakat pakat issue invoices within same period at same price

The symptoms similar to Omicron so consider "mild". Look more into bird flu. Food preparation on chickens will require gloves. Also slaughter on the animal.

The symptoms similar to Omicron so consider "mild". Look more into bird flu. Food preparation on chickens will require gloves. Also slaughter on the animal.

Share dividend will not subject to 2% tax right?

Bird Flu in USA ... state of emergency in California and Louisiana

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/12/18/bird-flu-cows-dairy-person-infected/76989489007/

Bird Flu in USA ... state of emergency in California and Louisiana

Have to see the context of the messages. Peers in any industry always in communication. If their conversation is about cost of corn and soybeans are going up. That's just stating facts. As peers and also competitors, conversation on HOW MUCH they are increasing their price is like revealing their secret and no experience business people will do especially on commoditize products. Pricing is their advantage.

Ravetidus

refer to the evidence shared by MyCC (including messages), then only u can make informed decision

Yeah that's why REVENUE for ALL Msia glove makers are UP. So according to Nutsucker's logic. China's glove is what they are buying. Stewpid but bising = Tin Kosong.

NatsukoMishima

US , EUROPE already make huge stock pile from China glove before tariff start ! Only naive malaysia glove tard will believe reclaiming old glory stories from roti planta IB ! Cut you one more round !

Go to high court just like GRAB against MyCC. GRAB won the case. So this is expected with LHI to all the way to High Court.

Thx KimSua. Yes I agree. MACD RSI is lagging. I think your way with net short is something like CFTC (commitment of traders) way of looking at thing for swing trade. I'm not good at CFTC method but I think it's a better trend indicator.
Selling early is ok as long as still make profit. Protect our capital is still number 1 priority. 😃

I'm using the standard MACD, MA (20,50,150) and RSI to monitor for tech analysis. Hoping you can point out this net short position for me to add into my analysis. TQ

Kim Sua, Do you monitor the short position every trading day? ("Always observe the net short position trend ...")
Volume Value
KOSSAN KOSSAN RUBBER INDUSTRIES BHD 284,700 745,578

This the data I got from Bursa for 5 Dec 2024. But no graph to see spike or trough.

Yeah it can go down and up... but fundamental is still intact.

HaroldHuong

Up for 2days and see how 2moro..

I think can go higher. Because the situation is different now. Then, the 25% tariff will be in 2026. So there is another 1 year before the tariff. Anything can happen in 12 months. True enough, Maybank wrote an article abt China glove being so great and all. So traders sell big.

Now, it is 50% tariff in 2025 and US targeting China manufacturers wherever they manufacture from. Whole different situation bro.

KimSua

Highest high for since the first ustr announcement. Out for now

This shld be interpreted as "USA targeting tariff on China glove manufacturer even if they operate from Indonesia, Vietnam or Msia. "

This shld be interpreted as "USA targeting tariff on China glove manufacturer even if they operate from Indonesia, Vietnam or Msia. "

NO. Totally different issue. LONGi is China's solar manufacturer. They have a big production in Bukit Beruntung, Rawang. Of course Msia got hit by this tariff. They are targeting China manufacturers. Even the article stated this fact:

The group, the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, accused big Chinese solar panel makers with factories in Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand of causing global prices to collapse by dumping products into the market.

NO. Totally different issue. LONGi is China's solar manufacturer. They have a big production in Bukit Beruntung, Rawang. Of course Msia got hit by this tariff. They are targeting China manufacturers. Even the article stated this fact:

The group, the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing Trade Committee, accused big Chinese solar panel makers with factories in Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand of causing global prices to collapse by dumping products into the market.

Nutsucker will end up in an asylum in 2025 ! Dont ask me why , you will know the answer in 2025 !

Nutsucker will end up in an asylum in 2025 ! Dont ask me why , you will know the answer in 2025 !

Yeah. I'm going for the dividend and hold for Q4 results in Feb 2025.

Do you guy think price will drop after the ex-date for dividend?

Nutsucker eyes red.... hahahaha