We understand Muhibbah has submitted tenders for the majority of packages which has opened for RAPID together with its two foreign JV partners. We expect contract sizes to be chunky and Muhibbah’s portion of the contracts to be worth at least RM1-2bn. We continue to like Muhibbah as a growing oil and gas proxy in Malaysia where it is set to capitalise on its much sought after Petronas fabrication license.
( One of the point highlighted by HwangDSB Research )
Wonder if any buyers for Asia petroleum hub from which muhibah wrote off rm245mil, creditor cimb said no problems to find suitable buyer to revive the project
U can find info about Asia petroleum hub in the net. Rm245 mil write off last year but project abandoned in 2009. Climb & muhibbah largest creditors. With cimb's prowess I guess won't be long before climb finds a white knight
Rm60 bil for Rapid. Soon the buyers of property shares will switch to specialised construction like muhibah. Not forgetting its subsidiary Favelle favco is one of its kind in its industry
Hearing that creditor Cimb nearing a deal for new takeover of ASia petroleum hub. Would mean huge writeback to muhibah if this happens. Anyone hearing this rumour?
Securing the RM203m land reclamation contract in Melaka was positive for Benalec as this stabilises its earnings beyond FY14, compensating for the delay in the signing of the 1,000-acre Tanjung Piai project in Iskandar. But investors are unlikely to view the new Melaka job as the game changer as its turnaround has always hinged on the revival of the massive oil & gas-related land reclamation prospects in Iskandar. We maintain our EPS forecasts, Reduce call and target price - pegged to an unchanged 50% discount to RNAV. There are still risks of delay for the Tanjung Piai deal, in our view. Switch to Muhibbah Engineering for exposure to oil & gas infra and the RAPID project.
What Happened
Secures a reclamation contract in Melaka. Benalec was awarded a 415-acre, RM203m land reclamation project in Melaka.
What We Think
New contract stabilises earnings beyond FY14, but is not the game changer. This award is not overly surprising as it is in line with management's strategy of securing new cash reclamation contracts in Melaka. Nonetheless, this is positive for Benalec as it ensures a stable earnings stream beyond FY14, and compensates for the delay in the 1,000-acre Tanjung Piai reclamation project in Iskandar, Johor - based on our original timeline, this project should start contributing from 2H14 onwards. The RM203m new contract will yield a pretax margin of c.20%, lower than the historical land reclamation margin of c.30% due to rising costs and soil factors. The estimated net profit of RM15m-20m p.a. is broadly in line with our existing new job assumption for FY15-16. We reiterate that the game changer for Benalec continues to be a revival of the long-awaited massive Tanjung Piai deal. Our checks with management indicated that negotiations have gradually picked up in the last few months but we feel that there are still uncertainties over meeting the targeted signing of the sale and purchase agreement (SPA) by Jun. The next step is the submission of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) which should take three months to be reviewed.
What You Should Do
Sell on strength. We do not expect this news to trigger a major re-rating for the stock. We foresee a sustained overhang on the share price, pending greater visibility and conviction on the prospects of the Tanjung Piai deal.
Source: CIMB Daybreak - 07 May 2014, Full PDF Report
posed by SavvyOnon 09/05/2014 12:03 SavvyOne By the way, CIMB has got it wrong before. Check out their strong recommendation to buy in Muhibbah's case some time ago.
Muhibbah's annualised 1Q14 core net profit made up 86% of our and 80% of consensus full-year forecasts. This is deemed in line as subsequent quarters should be better, driven by the record-high crane order book of RM1.1bn. We expect the infra division to play catch-up, as over RM2bn worth of its tenders are focused on Petronas' Rapid project. A 20-30% success rate over the next 18 months is achievable, in our view. We continue to be positive about the company's outlook. We keep our EPS forecasts but lift our RNAV-based target price (30% discount) as we factor in the updates in its balance sheet and Favelle Favco's market cap. Maintain Add. Its RM61.4m civil works job for a domestic gas terminal should kick-start other catalysts in the medium term.
1Q14 broadly in line Order book depletion and timing of jobs. Annualised 1Q14 core net profit made up 86% of our and 80% of consensus full-year forecasts. The results were broadly in line as we expect stronger quarters ahead. 1Q is usually the weaker period due to lower ship orders. The contribution from new crane orders should be strong in 2H. We are not too worried about the low 4% yoy revenue growth for infra due to depleting jobs. As expected, no dividends were declared. Fat tender book at Rapid Expect better newsflow in 2H. The group announced that it has won a RM61.4m contract from Samsung Engineering for the civil works portion of the Terengganu Gas Terminal Project (TGTP) in Kerteh. Though it is small in value, we view this win positively as it starts the ball rolling for the replenishment of the group's infrastructure order book, which previously stood at RM704m. Things are bound to get even better in 2H - we believe the award flows for Rapid infra works will gather momentum in 2H. Its Rapid tenders amount to a total of RM2bn-3bn. A success rate of 20-30% is achievable given the industry shortage of specialised contractors for oil & gas and marine-related infra. RM1.9bn outstanding order book and counting >60% of total orders are oil & gas related. Muhibbah's outstanding order book of RM1.9bn comprises RM704m for infra, RM1.1bn for cranes (all-time high), and RM57m for shipyard. It is skewed towards oil & gas related works.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
robot99
243 posts
Posted by robot99 > 2014-04-08 19:47 | Report Abuse
Next tp should 5.00