Morning Friends & Gentlemen! Accumulate before news is out! Muhibbah Engineering (M) Bhd is expected to benefit from a tourism recovery in Cambodia, analysts say.
The company owns a 21% effective stake in Cambodia Airports which manages two operating airports in Cambodia.
It is also likely to clinch more Petroliam Nasional Bhd (PETRONAS) jobs via its PETRONAS fabrication licence, CGS International Research (CGSI Research) said in a report.
“We hosted a meeting with Muhibbah’s management on Sept 12 and in our view, the key takeaway is possible large lumpy wins after a lull,” the research house said.
It noted Muhibbah’s order book for construction and cranes remained resilient at RM1.6bil as of Aug 24, albeit down from its recent Nov 23 peak of RM2.4bil.
“It has yet to win any material contracts this year but has submitted a large tender for an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning role for the Lang Lebah gas field in Sarawak.
“Given its prior experience with similar projects in Gansar, Bekok and Bindu in Terengganu, we see it being a frontrunner for this project,” the research house said.
CGSI Research said that passenger arrivals at the two Cambodian airports rose 18% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 2.3 million in the first half of 2024 (1H24), and should hit five million for the entire year.
The research house added that Cambodia Airports accounted for most of Muhibbah’s 1H24 associate profits, which rose 63% y-o-y to RM30mil.
“This is commendable as 1H23 included the Siam Reap airport concession. “
Citing The Khmer Times, the research house said the construction of Techno International Airport in Kandal, near Phnom Penh was 80% complete and will open in mid-2025, replacing the current Phnom Penh airport.
“We maintain our view that the most likely scenario involves Cambodia Airports receiving compensation for investment incurred until the Phnom Penh airport concession is surrendered and that it will be engaged to operate the new airport at Kandal, based on a fixed-fee structure and with some element of profit sharing,” the research house said.
While it said it liked Muhibbah for its cheap valuation at next year’s financial year price-earnings ratio of eight times versus the sector’s 17 times, it noted key downside risks were the non-continuity in earnings delivery and higher raw material costs.
Re-rating catalysts for the company include better earnings delivery and stronger tourist arrivals in Cambodia, the research house said.
CGS INTERNATIONAL (SEPT 17): The key takeaway from a recent meeting with Muhibbah’s (KL:MUHIBAH) management is possible large lumpy wins after a lull. Muhibbah’s order book (construction and cranes) remains resilient, at RM1.6 billion as at August 2024, albeit down from its recent November 2023 peak of RM2.4 billion.
It has yet to win any material contracts this year but has submitted a large tender for an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) role for the Land Lebah gas field. Given its prior experience with similar projects in Gansar, Bekok and Bindu in Terengganu, we see it as a frontrunner for this project. We are also encouraged that its construction earnings delivery has picked up strongly in 2Q24, driven mainly by its EPCC and installation role for the Gansar project for Petronas Carigali.
We like Muhibbah for its cheap valuation at FY25F PER of eight times (versus the sector’s 17 times) and for being a proxy for a recovery in tourist arrivals via Cambodia Airports, while its Petroliam Nasional Bhd fabrication licence should enable it to clinch more Petronas jobs, in our view. Key downside risks are non-continuity in earnings delivery and higher raw material costs.
Analysis By Foreign Analyst. Muhibbah Share Price vs Fair Value What is the Fair Price of MUHIBAH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
51.8% Undervalued Current Price RM 0.93 Fair Value RM 1.92
REWARDS: #Trading at 51.8% below our estimate of its fair value Earnings are forecast to grow 31.83% per year #Became profitable this year RISK ANALYSIS: #No risks detected for MUHIBAH from our risk checks.
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MUHIBAH is 1.295 MYR with a low forecast of 1.212 MYR and a high forecast of 1.407 MYR.
CGS International recommends a Technical Buy for Muhibbah Engineering. The stock recently surged, breaking out of a downtrend, underpinned by a long white candle and closing above key exponential moving averages (EMAs). This indicates a bullish shift in momentum.
Entry Price Range: RM0.90 to RM0.925 Stop Loss Level: RM0.83 Target Price 1: RM0.96 Target Price 2: RM1.03
Morning Guys, Don't Miss! Buy on any dips as Muhibbah already broken Resistant 0.96 and reached RM0.965, with positive momentum!. Market should retest 0.96~0.965 again?, it's expected to exit penny stock and retest Resistant RM1.03 soon! Further upside is expected for a post Budget rally in anticipation of good news, contract win from Petronas & Lang Lebah gas field in Sarawak? Next Resistant is RM1.03, followed by Resistant RM1.10 ~1.31 with Target Price RM1.34!...tut tut
Note: Based on 2 years historical contract wins, Muhibah contract award for Nov/Dec. 2024 from Petronas/Lang Lebah Sarawak Gasfields could exceed RM527m based on expected 10% annual increase on CAPEX spending by bullish Oil & Gas Players?
Quote:
"ValueMaker
Based on past 2 years history, Muhibah used to clinched in contracts during the year end:
RM 479m award in 2023 Nov RM 438m award in 2022 Dec"
CGS Analysis on Muhibah. Accumulate on any weakness!
Possible large construction and crane wins ■ Possible large construction and crane wins on the horizon ■ Cambodia Airports working towards a win-win outcome by 2Q25F ■ Valuations remain cheap at FY25F P/E of 8x (vs. sector average of 17x); Up/downside: 64.4%reiterate Add, with an unchanged SOP-based TP of RM1.34
Construction earnings picking up, bidding for large projects. We hosted a meeting with Muhibbah’s management on 12 Sep 24. In our view, the key takeaway is possible large lumpy wins after a lull. Muhibbah’s orderbook (construction and RM593.8mcranes) remains resilient, at RM1.6bn as at Aug 24 (Fig 5), albeit down from its recent peak of RM2.4bn. It has yet to win any material contracts this year but has submitted a large tender for an EPCC role for the Land Lebah gas field. Given its prior experience with similar projects in Gansar, Bekok and Bindu in Terengganu, we see it being a frontrunner Free float: 73.3%for this project. We are also encouraged that its construction earnings delivery has picked up in strongly in 2Q24 with pretax profit of RM40m (2Q23: RM1m pretax loss) driven mainly by its EPCC and installation role for the Gansar project in Terengganu for Petronas CarigaliKey changes in this note(RM400m-500m remaining, including additional scope of RM318m awarded in late-2023). We raise FY24F/FY25F/FY26F EPS by 5%/4%/2% to account for additional scope Muhibbah’s value proposition is not in government infrastructure or the data centre space for its engineering, procurement, but more in marine-based construction and offshore platforms leveraging on its Petronas construction and commissioning (EPCC) job fabrication licence, in our view. Its crane business under Favelle Favco has been invited to for the Gansar project, and EPCC and tender for the supply of tower cranes for the world's biggest construction project known as installation of Bindu A (jacket and topside)Neom in Saudi Arabia; the tender will close at end-Sep 24 with a potential award by early next year. Another key division within its infra segment is CiTech, a supplier of waste heat recovery units (WHRUs) with an orderbook of RM25m and tenderbook of RM1.1bn as at Aug 24. CiTech’s clientele includes Petronas Carigali, Siemens and Keppel.
Working towards a win-win outcome for Cambodia airports. Muhibbah owns a 21% effective stake in Cambodia Airports, which manages two operating airports in Cambodia – in Phnom Penh and Sihanoukville. Passenger arrivals to the two airports rose 18% yoy to 2.3m in 1H24, and should hit 5m for 2024F, in our view. Cambodia Airports accounted for most of Muhibbah’s 1H24 associate profits, which rose 63% yoy to RM30m; this is commendable as 1H23 included the Siam Reap airport concession. The Khmer Times on 3 Sep 24 highlighted that construction of Techno International Airport in Kandal, near Phnom Penh was 80% complete and it will open in mid-2025F, replacing the Phnom Penh airport. We maintain our view that the most likely scenario involves Airports receiving compensation for investment incurred until the Phnom Penh airport concession is surrendered and that it will be engaged to operate the new airport at Kandal, based on a fixed fee structure and with some element of profit sharing.
Reiterate Add and SOP-based TP of RM1.34. We like Muhibbah for its cheap valuation at FY25F P/E of 8x (vs. sector of 17x) and for being a proxy for a recovery in tourist arrivals via Cambodia Airports, while its Petronas fabrication licence should enable it to clinch more Petronas jobs, in our view. Key downside risks are non-continuity in earnings delivery and higher raw material costs. Re-rating catalysts include better earnings delivery and stronger tourist arrivals in Cambodia.
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ming
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