If they book in the 80million property sales this quarter, the result will be very handsome. Dunno why they did not do so. Maybe, they predict this year will have no new launches, they smoothen the sales so that the property segment won't look so ugly next quarter
Tiong Nam would have actually posted a core loss of around RM1mil in 2Q19 if we were to exclude all the non-core profits amounting to RM3.2mil (gain on disposal, impairment gain, gain from quoted investment and forex). The depressing results just shows how challenging the logistic market has become at the moment. The anticipated ecommerce boom did not translate to higher profit for the company (and also its competitors) even though revenue has seen a big jump in the past 10 years.
The industry will only be more crowded in the future given that some online platform companies had also decided to participate in the logistic industry. Lazada which is backed by Alibaba has its own logistic company under the brand Lazada Express. The company is touted to allocate a capex amounting to RM1bil for the expansion of its logistics arm. Refer to Lazada Malaysia CEO interview with BFM: https://www.bfm.my/bg-christophe-lejeune-lazada-malaysia-lazada-a-years-worth-of-sales-in-one-day.html
Even if the company managed to bounce back and record a core profit of RM15mil in FY19, the company would still be valued at 22x PE which is high given the doubts on its being able to deliver any consistent profit growth in the future (in view of the challenging industry outlook).
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Tiong Nam Logistics (due to its earnings uncertainties) I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
For FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM160 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 6.2x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analyst is around RM3.50.
Yup. Unlike other logistic companies, Tiong Nam prefer to own all the warehouse asset themselves including the land. The idea of carving their warehouse assets and parking it under Reit has been touted for a long time (i think i first heard of it in 2015) but it has never materialised. Given the increase of the global interest rates trend, listing the warehouse REIT now might not get the best valuation that the major shareholder is looking for. I honestly believe that they had missed the boat to list the warehouse Reit. Should have done it in 2016.
Any listing would only be done later given the current market uncertainties.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
DO RE MI
236 posts
Posted by DO RE MI > 2018-09-26 09:08 | Report Abuse
thaks for the info MM