Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-21 15:37 | Report Abuse

This counter does not follow klci one....u scared, it ups until u drop your spectacles....hahaha

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-21 16:23 | Report Abuse

dont be over confident

Posted by desire > 2014-11-21 16:48 | Report Abuse

syndicate playing again

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 17:03 | Report Abuse

不怕，投资者们大家都知道PMETAL的前景亮丽，

不怕买入PMETAL。

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:16 | Report Abuse

Applaud Press Metal’s plan to double its Samalaju plant’s capacity,

which would lift total smelting capacity to 760,000 tpa (~1.5% of global
primary aluminium consumption).

Maintain BUY, with a higher TP of
MYR5.75 (68.1% upside) – at a 10% discount from our fully-diluted DCF
valuation.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:17 | Report Abuse

Phase III expansion.

Press Metal’s 80%-owned subsidiary, Press Metal
Bintulu SB (PMB), has inked a term sheet with Syarikat Sesco for the
supply of an additional 500 megawatts (MW) of power to PMB to
undertake its proposed Phase III expansion, which would double the
present aluminium smelting capacity at its plant in Samalaju, Sarawak to
640,000 tonnes per annum (tpa).

Together with its smelting plant in
Mukah, the expansion could see the group expanding its smelting
capacity to 760,000 tpa, which is about 1.5% of global primary aluminium
consumption.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:18 | Report Abuse

Press Metal already runs
successful aluminium smelters in Sarawak, which are in the first quartile
of the global production cost curve.

Although the tariff for the additional
power supply is confidential, understand from management that the
profitability of Phases II and III of the smelter is similar, after imputing a
lower capex and potentially greater efficiency, for the new plant.


Meanwhile, the first drawdown of 330MW will start in end-2015, while the
remaining 170MW will be drawn down from early-2018 onwards. To be
prudent, we imputed the new capacity into our financial model, which
assumes contributions only from 2016 onwards together with some
higher costs.

Thus, our FY16 estimates rise by 27.7% to MYR555m !!!

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:19 | Report Abuse

BUY, with a higher TP of MYR5.75.

Excited over the news of
the capacity expansion, as it is timely for Press Metal to ride on the
bottoming out of aluminium prices and expand its presence in the
aluminium industry.

Its projected record earnings indicate that the
company can fund this project using internally-generated funds together
with bank borrowings, while maintaining its generous dividend payout
policy of 30%-50%.

Thus, reiterate BUY with a higher TP of MYR5.75
(from MYR4.72),

which we derive from a 10% discount to our latest DCF
valuation, on a fully diluted basis.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:20 | Report Abuse

Aluminium prices inching up.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium cash
price corrected after breaching the USD2,100 a tonne level in September.

However,
we notice that it is now back on an uptrend – it last traded at USD2,011 a tonne (as
of 18 Nov), which was a sharp rise from a low of USD1,858.75 a tonne in October.


While we are unable to say with certainty that aluminium prices will not drop further,

Believed the increasing deficit in supply is a good sign that aluminium prices are

bottoming out at the current level and stand a good chance of surprising on the
upside.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:21 | Report Abuse

Room for an earnings surprise.

Press Metal’s 4Q14 profit to come in
around MYR90m on higher aluminium prices.

Based on the all-in aluminium price
estimate of USD2,400 in 2015,

Anticipate the group’s earnings to improve further
to approximately MYR105m a quarter or MYR417m in FY15.

On the back of
additional volume from Phase III of the smelter and assumption of a 1.5% YoY
increase in the LME spot price to USD2,030 and flattish premium of USD400 a tonne,
we expect Press Metal to hit another record milestone with a profit of MYR555m in
FY16.

Projected Press Metal’s earnings to improve year after
year until 2020, the current aluminium price movements suggest a high likelihood of
an earnings upside, given our conservative assumption in our financial model

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-21 22:24 | Report Abuse

New TP still comparable to global peers?

As Press Metal owns the country’s first
smelter (thus becoming the first aluminium smelter counter under our coverage),


Conducted a cursory global peer comparison based on consensus estimates.

Meanwhile, its global peers are currently trading within 9.6-31.3x FY14 and 6.8-16.2x
FY15 P/Es but our new TP of MYR5.75 implies a 24.1x/15.2x P/E on FY14F/FY15F
projections.

While it appears to be almost at the higher range of its regional peer
valuation, we think investors must look at our valuation for its FY16 - a year in which
most of its peers have no expansion plans in the pipeline even as Press Metal’s

Phase III expansion would further trim its implied P/E to only 11.4x – which would be
its peer average’s projected P/E for 2015.

Therefore, our earnings base valuation
remains reasonable (while there is also room for its valuation to expand),

STRONGLY believe earnings estimates were largely TOO CONSERVATIVE !

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-23 08:59 | Report Abuse

Having said that, our view and year-end target of 1,910 remains unchanged.

We believe the domestic market will still be supported by the strong domestic liquidity position and the favourable seasonal pattern. Besides, as FBMKLCI is traded at 7% discount to its consensus target price of 1,945, the downside could be limited.

Based on the track records between FBMKLCI and its consensus target, we believe any dips below 1,830 should serve as “Buying On Weakness” (B.O.W.) opportunities.

Apart from YTD underperformers / laggards, we still like BARAKAH (OP, TP:

RM1.74), COASTAL (OP, TP: RM5.94), GAMUDA (OP, TP: RM5.52), KSL (TB, TP:

RM6.63), MUHIBAH (OP, TP: RM3.55), SIME, (OP, TP: RM10.10), SUPERMX (OP,

TP: RM3.23) and VS (TB, TP: RM3.16). Our other 2 Top Picks - MBSB (OP, TP:

RM2.65) and RHBCAP (OP, TP: RM10.00) – have performed well after the

recently announced CIMB-MBSB-RHBCAP merger structure. As such, we are

replacing these 2 Top Picks with MPI (OP, TP: RM6.72) and

PMETAL (OP, TP: RM8.87).

Source: Kenanga

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-23 09:59 | Report Abuse

Good info

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-23 12:50 | Report Abuse

Kok Leong, 请问你晓得如何把Articles post at Top Articles, beside i3investors's forum ?
Thanks!

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-24 07:51 | Report Abuse

三个Research Houses’s Cover Research Report@PMETAL。

1.RHB@OSK
2.KENANGA
3.AMMB

To Refresh:
(大约2-3月前，PMETAL还没BONUS ISSUE
股价处于RM5.30 - RM5.40 水平.

一当RHB@OSK Cover Report 出炉股价就上涨，再上涨。
一直达RM7.30-RM7.40高水平。(归功于当时RHB@OSK的report)

虽然当中有Correction Price,但这是正常现象。
有发生Correction Price ，才会吸引其他INVESTORS 买入。)

我想说，…在这SATURDAY ， SUNDAY (22 & 23 Nov 2014)

我仔细阅读了三遍以上各三家RESEARCH HOUSES COVER REPORT@PMETAL。

发现AMMB 的Cover Report@Pmetal内容不完全，偏向于悲观。

相反的RHB@OSK 的研究内容很齐全，很深入，准确•PMETAL。

（也许里头有OSK，RHB 联合起来的经济研究人才吧）

KENANGA就比较中和，信得过，如果比起AMMB的话。

RHB-OSK@PMETAL 的TP RM5.75 ， 相等于 Bonus Issue 之前 的TP RM11.50

TP RM5.75 觉得过高吗？

不会，我们得要想到以下几点：

1。 To double its smelting capacity for aluminium in gots in Samalaju, Sarawak to 640,000 tonnes from the present 320,000 tonnes in order to meet the fast-growing demand globally
(“Proposed Phase III Smelter”).

2。Also owns and operates another smelter in Mukah, Sarawak with a 120,000-tonne capacity under its 80%-owned Press Metal Sarawak Sdn Bhd (“PMS”).

总共：Wow, Smelting capacity to 760,000 tpa !!
( ~1.5% of global primary aluminium consumption ! )

3。在Proposed Phase III Smelter，SEB has entrusted us with an additional 500MW of power which is another important milestone@PMETAL to expand our presence in the aluminium industry.

4。The Japanese partner has the first refusal right to maintain a 20% stake in this new project.

5。Press Metal’s further investment in the Sarawak Corridor for Renewable Energy (SCORE) will also create more job and business opportunities for the people in Sarawak.
（国政政府发展SARAWAK州的大PROJECT @NKEA）

6。再加上The new plant is expected to cost less than the amount we spent to build Phase II, even though Phase III has a similar capacity. Simply because Phase III will be sharing some common facilities that are already in place。

7。Generating healthy cash flow. Comfortable that can fund the project with bank borrowings and using internally-generated funds。

8. Conclusion:

8.1 今世今日, PRESS METAL operates two aluminium smelting plants in Mukah and Samalaju in Sarawak.

8.2 Also operates aluminium extrusion plants in Selangor, Malaysia, Guangdong & Hubei, both in China, with a combined extrusion capacity of 190,000 tpa.

8.3 RHB@OSK 所给的TP RM5.75理想及可信任的目标价。

8.4 净利
8.4.1 Dec 2013 rm15 mil
8.4.2 Dec 2014 rm263 mil (F)
8.4.3 Dec 2015 rm417 mil (F)
8.4.4 Dec 2016 rm 555 mil (F)

8.5 有不错的股息（Maintaining its Generous Dividend Payout
Policy of 30%-50%.）

8.6 PMETAL will further invest into Sarawak Corridor for Renewable Energy ( SCORE).

To be able to increase its total smelting capacity from the existing 440,000 tonne to 760,000
tonne。

在2015 年里迈向另一个新的里程碑！

PMETAL.THE LARGEST IN S.E ASIA !

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-24 09:53 | Report Abuse

Sorry that I don't know

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-24 11:43 | Report Abuse

may i know is there any website i can check the different reports??

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-24 11:57 | Report Abuse

just type Pmetal share price,

then click no. 1

then click view target price detail.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-24 14:58 | Report Abuse

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1802465

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-24 15:20 | Report Abuse

Joel, may i know what does it mean? good news?

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-24 15:38 | Report Abuse

先买着PMETAL来收。（holding power much strong )

他日你会从PMETAL获得了开怀。

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-24 16:59 | Report Abuse

ppl keeping throwing....why ah??

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-24 19:06 | Report Abuse

会上回的，investors like to buy during price correction.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-25 11:49 | Report Abuse

MACD ( 的两条线，一红，一黑已经开始相碰了）

Indicated that Uptrend mode will happen anytime fr now.

Posted by CCV2013 > 2014-11-25 12:22 | Report Abuse

joel: what is your short and long term TP?

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-25 13:03 | Report Abuse

joel, MACD still not cross wo, what setting is that?

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-25 14:18 | Report Abuse

TP 很难预料，
这几天TP RM3.50。

在Indicator里的MACD ，黑线，如果高于红线，( 现在正好刚想碰）

换言之，如果黑线在红线上面，

Uptrend is intact@PRESS METAL。

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-25 14:22 | Report Abuse

what trading platform are you using?? and what is the setting for your MACD? tq

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-25 14:50 | Report Abuse

I watch and read OSK188.

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-25 16:47 | Report Abuse

Target Price: Rm5.75 ( RHB-OSK latest Cover Report @20.11.2014)

Posted by Simple man > 2014-11-25 16:50 | Report Abuse

Target Price: Rm7.50

Posted by sarahpl > 2014-11-25 17:34 | Report Abuse

haha! RM7.50 joking?!

Posted by aikwais > 2014-11-25 17:40 | Report Abuse

Dear Joel, where do you get the report?
What is the summary? Thanks!

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-25 18:55 | Report Abuse

the MACD still no cross, joel, based on chartnexus, why u said the MACD cross ady..

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-25 21:00 | Report Abuse

你注意下面，

正好刚想碰。

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-25 21:02 | Report Abuse

Uptrend is intact ！

只是大家都不懂什么时候发生罢了。

Posted by Kenny Foo > 2014-11-26 01:30 | Report Abuse

MACD just touch

Posted by Joel > 2014-11-26 09:54 | Report Abuse

Now 3.31 /3.33.

Contra kakis almost clear,

wear ur safety belt tightly to start bullish maybe happen on today or anyday.

Posted by Eddy Wong > 2014-11-26 10:01 | Report Abuse

i believe today

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-26 10:45 | Report Abuse

Ppl still throwing...@@

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-26 11:07 | Report Abuse

They will only push up when all of you are Kaulat sian sian and had all sold out.

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-26 11:08 | Report Abuse

Me myself am very sien also

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-26 11:08 | Report Abuse

May go up any moment from now

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-26 11:09 | Report Abuse

Or they will create another panic sell first b4 really go up?

Posted by traderman > 2014-11-26 11:13 | Report Abuse

when market improve sure will fly. tp 4

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-26 11:43 | Report Abuse

Got ppl put a huge block there, how to move.... Haiz...

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-26 11:59 | Report Abuse

Everyday open high and got ppl dump the price down... Sien! Better let go jor

Posted by Kok Leong Chan > 2014-11-26 12:15 | Report Abuse

Good ...ppl sien and throw....no resistance later...easy up..

Posted by keepeng > 2014-11-26 12:36 | Report Abuse

Should reach rm4 by year end

Posted by siulong1 > 2014-11-26 13:33 | Report Abuse

Our market so fake, index green but most of the stocks down...