Robert Waters

RobertWaters | Joined since 2019-07-25

Investing Experience Advanced
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Stock

1 day ago | Report Abuse

What does it even mean ? Operator buying or selling, pingpong ?
Thanks for insight anyway.

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5 days ago | Report Abuse

Yes, many new contracts now are being issued by Petronas for the MCM services (30BLN). Sapura, a PN17 company won a big reward (5BLN estimate, but not guaranteed as call outs needed for orders). Hope that Barakah gets some too. So far, 3 weeks later, there is nothing. But related to this, earnings just announced by Barakah are nothing short of disasterous. Profit turned into a loss of MYR 8 mln. This amount, not exactly a spare change for Barakah that needs to pay off debts instead of going deeper into red.. Just not enough work they say. Focused too much on litigation ? Without new contracts there will be no clients to sue. for Barakah, and their model to go after parters in courts may not be sustainable.

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5 days ago | Report Abuse

I sold some at 59.5 of Armada, because sometimes those even numbers, like 0.6 take longer to cross. I take almost the same money from sale, and it occurs easily. I think the best similar example is bitcoin at 100k. Breaking through seems difficult. No problem to sell at 98k.
Obviously, I underestimated buying momentum for Armada. Even though there are no big bid, people just buy and new levels are reached. My next selling will be around 70 - using IB guideline targets.

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6 days ago | Report Abuse

Yes you do. And it was similar transaction value, but no loss, only breaking even. And my mistake was trying to block it on a few levels. It is like trying to stop the flood of the ocean at the beach using a bucket and a sandcastle. Buying wave goes through and continues. So is was happening with Armada. I saw 8 million offer (sell) at 60 sens yesterday, with only 0.5 buy at 59.5 sens. A few hour later 8 million was gone and price was 61. Next day it is 63.5. Momentum suggest that this too will be taken.

Stock

6 days ago | Report Abuse

Yes. I heard that one before. Operator keeps price low to achieve some type of financial target for transaction in the future. I tried to suppress a penny stock (PN17) once, but it ended badly for me. Break through and an opportunity loss by selling too low.

Stock

6 days ago | Report Abuse

Well, as I told you, PN17 has not much to do with 6 consecutive reports of good earnings. It is about the two disclaimers from auditors, equity loss and default on debt payment. All of them have to be resolved. For example: if auditors issue disclaimer about poor records at Alam, good earnings are NOT supported by records and cannot be used to exit PN17. Issue of records must be addressed.

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

I thought this company was dead, but I was dead wrong. It still shows in investor's forums, and extension was granted. I would consider buying the cheapest counter, counting on a dead cat bounce. So hope that TRADING will RESUME soon.
:-)
Or maybe there will be something in the Plan ? Every dog has his day. This company may come up with something ...

Stock

1 week ago | Report Abuse

I checked my old research. Alam triggered multiple PN17 criteria. Two disclaimers from auditors, equity loss and default on debt payment. All of them have to be resolved. That is not just a matter of 'going green.' Paper profit do not address the triggers. So it sure will take a few years if all things go right.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/AlamMaritimHeadinSand/2024-06-14-story-h-159614966-Alam_Maritim_Resources_Berhad_Is_a_Cancer_Patient_Requiring_ICU_with_Di

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Somebody here tries to prevent all meaningful conversation. Sad.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Thank you for making a point. I own a few PN17 companies. Read a few plans. Got a few press articles about Schemes of Arrangements. Never heard of company just being released because of going green. They need to remove triggering events. It is now concern about ability to go on (as a going concern about MATERIAL UNCERTAINITY). Not just availability of records. But I did my research months ago, forgot details about Alam.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Today I wanted to buy some shares as the price softened at the closing during 5 minute TPC phase at 16:50, and instead I pressed SELL. Well, that was silly mistake. Those things can happen to big boys too, with more price implication.
I was upset with myself, so I put a buy for tomorrow to repurchase. Hopefully at same price.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Maybe it is a few dozens small players that get share from a big player of a whale ?

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Old shareholder coming by to have a look. Seems to be getting worse and worse. From bad when I left to catastrophic. Maybe I miss something but new legal lawsuits and departures do not bode well. I hope that the chinese girlfriend from perfume company is gone from the board of directors. That was a good joke, but at cost of shareholders ...

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

This reporter has no answer, only questions. One thing I learnt is that you should write about you know, not speculate on paper what you have no idea about. Obviously reporter has no idea about situation or solution (steps already taken). It would not take long to check revenues, new contracts, disposal of assets, etc. He only read 2 articles of others and copied statement from them.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

Thank you. I will delete my post as it is not relevant to forum topic ...

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

My respect and thank you to AK who was loyal to his investments protecting Armada even in times of trouble. He loaned money to BAB and that way ensured that the company avoided distress. Grace for minority shareholders here.

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1 week ago | Report Abuse

There is NO chance to get out of PN17. They must first implement a Regularisation Plan which involves rights isses, EGM, courts to approve, etc. And only AFTER implemented, 2 Quarter Profits. This will be YEARS! And as you see up, reports are not certified by auditors, so cannot be considered for anything.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

To be fair, the company promissed to address the issue with the auditors in a statement made 3 days ago. It is important, so I provide it.
_____________________________________

ALAM MARITIM RESOURCES BHD ("ALAM" OR THE "COMPANY") DISCLAIMER OF OPINION ON THE AUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FOR THE FINANCIAL PERIOD ENDED 3O JUNE 2024
Reference is made to the announcement dated 30 October 2024 and 21 November 2024 in relation to the scheme of arrangement proceedings filed by both AMRB and Alam Maritim (M) Sdn Bhd (“AMSB”).

Pursuant to Paragraph 9.19(37) of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”), the Board of Directors of ALAM wishes to further announce that the Company has initiated steps to improve its record-keeping processes and is currently working to resolve this issue by providing the information and documents that are required by the external auditors in order to enable the external auditors to satisfy themselves on the truth and fairness of the financial statements prepared by the directors.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Good financial report. However, Alam price is driven by the distress situation, not earnings. The disclaimer of opinion is still there on page 8/16. No chance to get out of PN17. I do NOT expect much of upward movement in price tomorrow.
_____________________________________________________________
AUDITORS' REPORT ON PRECEDING ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
TheGroupandtheCompanyhavenotappliedinadvancethefollowingaccountingstandard(s)and/orinterpretation(s)(includingtheconsequentialamendments,ifany)thathavebeenissuedbytheMalaysianAccountingStandardsBoard(“MASB”)butarenotyeteffectiveforthecurrentfinancialyear:-
TheauditorsdidnotexpressanopiniononthefinancialstatementsoftheGroupandoftheCompanyforthefinancialyearended30June2024.BecauseofthesignificanceofthemattersdescribedintheBasisforDisclaimerofOpinionsectionofthereport,theauditorshavenotbeenabletoobtainsufficientappropriate audit evidence to provide basis for an audit opinion on the financial statements.

General

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Now, these are bad results if I ever saw ones.

Stock

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Yes, traditionally, this company makes a small gain of about 1 sen (MYR 0.01) once a year on the rumour that something may happen. And when nothing much happens, it goes back to the range. I am glad I exited. But will consider jumping in again, in the spring of 2025.

Stock

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

In my opinion the market reacts without enthusiasm due to the record of the company. Yes, they were able to succeed in courts and arbitration by harrassing own clients. Yet they are unable to secure contract and execute them profitably. Unless they have more client to sue, future does not look bright.

Stock

2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

This company bought a white elephant barge for MYR 350 mln. Then 10 years later after upkeep in millions they sold it for 50 million. Loss in excess of 300 mln. I think that 70 mln does NOT cover it at all.

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2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Bumi Armada Target Price Raised to MYR0.67 From MYR0.65 by Public Investment Bank >5210.KU
Dow Jones
·
2 mins ago
·
Ratings
ARMADA (5210.BMS)
0.545
0.00%
Bumi Armada Target Price Raised to MYR0.67 From MYR0.65 by Public Investment Bank >5210.KU

Stock

3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Shares swap will disadvantage BAB minority shareholders. Shares of MISC will be worth 5 times more than BAB (14/3) relative to earnings.

In a nutshell, both sides contribute 7 to 8 FPSO's to the Merged Entity (ME), but MISC will get 70% of it. And they get higher share valuation based on reputation and perception.

Stock

3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Here are the exact RHB notes. Original, in PDF is on the MISC forum of i3investor. Very enlightening.
15 November 2024 Transport | Shipping: MISC
Proposed merger with BAB
With the release of its 3Q24/9M24 results, MISC said it was entering a non-binding MoU with BAB to explore a potential share-based merger of both parties’ offshore businesses. This announcement follows industry speculation on this matter and, if completed, will create a Malaysia-based, sector-focused entity that can leverage the combined talent pool, project development, engineering capabilities, and expertise of both MISC and BAB’s offshore divisions. The proposed merged entity, anticipated to remain listed on the Main Market, would be one of the leading floating production businesses globally, with the scale, resources, and financial strength to compete effectively in the capital-intensive offshore floating production market.
This proposed deal is structured as a merger of MISC’s offshore business with BAB rather
than an outright acquisition, with both parties contributing assets via a share-swap rather than cash, which will be less taxing on cash reserves, in our view. Discussions are currently at the preliminary stages, and specific stake allocations have not been decided yet, as detailed due diligence and valuation assessments will only take place in the next phase of negotiations.
More importantly, management highlighted that the deal will be structured in a way that it will not jeopardise its ability to pay consistent dividends, especially when Mero 3 is expected to deliver stable long-term cash flows upon achieving final acceptance.
MISC’s strategic rationale for the merger is to establish a pure-play, FPSO-focused business with enhanced scale and capabilities. The group would inject its offshore assets into the combined entity, including its portfolio of 13 offshore floating solutions (seven FPSOs, five FSOs, and one semi-FPS). In FY22-23, this segment contributed operating profits of MYR652-666m, bolstered by gains from Mero 3’s construction. Looking ahead, the latter’s maiden charter contributions are expected to further anchor the segment’s performance, in our view.
For BAB, we believe acquiring MISC’s offshore assets through a share swap could
strategically expand its project portfolio and operational footprint, addressing its limited
recent tender wins, which have likely been constrained by financing challenges. This merger could improve the company’s financing access, positioning it to be more active in pursuing new growth opportunities in the FPSO market.
Ultimately, the deal’s pricing will be crucial. MISC's valuation, trading at approximately 14xP/E, significantly exceeds BAB's 4x, which highlights the need for careful consideration in valuing the former’s offshore assets. In addition to the asset valuation, other factors – eg potential synergies and alignment with the long-term strategic goals of both parties – will be important.
Given the likelihood of a share-swap rather than a substantial cash deal, we believe the
prospect of a special dividend is limited.

Stock

3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

I noticed that too. According to MIDF, Armada is valued at 3.2 PER, whereas MISC is valued at 15.4 PER. I would rather wait before the merger for the market to eventually price the assets accordingly to a reasonable PER (Price to Earning Ratio). BAB investors may be getting a raw deal with very, very heavily discounted price for their assets.
Greedy Gary cannot be that unintelligent to accept it at face value.

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3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

If BAB is buying something in a merger ... or selling something in a take-over, it is still good for us minority shareholders, as for the past 10 years they did NOTHING. I am all in for this deal.
Go go go.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

I think that could very well be the case. Issue shares and let investors worry if they are being sold at lower price. Probably we could get more of nominal value at the time of the deal.
Value paid in cash = RM 0.60. Alternatively,
Value given as shares = RM 0.70.

All speculation on my part.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

Is fair value RM 0.60, to which discount needs to be applied to facilitate the deal ?

Interestingly enough, when rumours first surfaced BAB reached this exact price of RM 0.60, but only for a few days.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

You are welcome. I am now working in a refinery in Iraq (upgrading), so a bit out of touch with upstream where armada acts, but still keeping abreast with the FPSO developments. If only they got their stuff together, there is money to be made.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

Gabriel,
CCS is very complex and state of the art. BAB will have to tackle great challenges. There will be cryogenic temperatures (C02 needs to be liquefied for injection). Also, very high pressure are needed, e.g. 300 bar or more. In comparison, FGRS involves tanks, compressor, piping and valves. Nothing unusual.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

As per general description of similar
Gases pass through a compressor and then go to a separator to remove any liquids. The gases then leave the separator, are cooled, and go to a drum to remove any condensates before heading back to the plant or facility for reuse.

Stock

1 month ago | Report Abuse

An interesting project. Based on my knowledge - it has NOTHING to do with carbon capture. It is all about reprocessing gas that goes to flare and using it (for fuel?).

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

That makes sense. Someone seems to be pushing the price down. Brought it from 0.03 to 0.02. Now, limit (ceiling) is at 0.025, and I cannot buy it all myself at 0.025. At the same time, they are large bids, so buying at 0.02 very difficult.
Problems of low liquidity stocks with a large bid/ask difference.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

I sold out my stake a few days ago at 0,705. Wish I waited a bit, but sure the valuation is reach. Would rather take MHC or Tecguan, which have NOT gone up that much yet. And MHC is the parent of Cepat.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Market valuation of MHC seems a bit rich to me. I got some on old orders in line up, and now sold at 0.99. Somehow I feel that pullback is coming. Not easy to be in the CPO business, after all. European environmentalists keep bashing this commodity.
Let us hope I can reenter at 0.95 in bigger way.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

You may be right. I remember the oil in the ground was valued at 900 mln RM. Of course, cost of extraction is high (capex), but still, the valuation of the stock market cap is only 50 mln. He should make money. So we do NOT need to worry about PN17 when that is the case. I worry about the guys who will come here and mess with the loyal shareholders, like newbie or me to get us out too soon.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

Usually pump and dump con men infest the forum and spread news that exit of PN17 is imminent (eg. because earnings improved). As long as it is peaceful here, we are good to buy and accummulate. No problem that price is down a bit.

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1 month ago | Report Abuse

This is a standard (boilerplate) anouncement about PN17 extension. I think they allow to extend 2 times without problems. Then they delay approvals, shorten extenstion to 3 months, etc. So far we are good.

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

I sold off at 97.5. Good luck to longs. May return at 5% discount later on. I do believe that the correction is coming.

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

I sold off at 70.5. Good luck to longs. May return at 5% discount later on.

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2 months ago | Report Abuse

The whole carbon capture concept is only intended to take money from taxpayers and increase environmental ratings for better loans. I do not see technical sense in it. After all, carbon stays as carbon and eventually is released through migration via shale or reservoir rock, then cracks.

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2024-08-28 16:41 | Report Abuse

Droping like a rock on high volume. That clearly is an indication that no deal is about to be finalized.

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2024-08-23 15:38 | Report Abuse

Downgrade by IB. I guess tired of the BS and no new projects.
Bumi Armada Cut to Hold From Buy by Hong Leong IB >5210.KU

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2024-08-20 12:50 | Report Abuse

Since they have had no new project for 10 years, they should pay off debts rather than looking for new money. Or do you believe it is normal to borrow for day to day operations ?

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2024-08-19 14:24 | Report Abuse

People buy PN17 companies where right warrants are used to pay off debt.
This company will use funds to expand facility.
I forgoe thank you letter from bank, prefer profit from expansion.

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2024-08-17 00:19 | Report Abuse

There was a bonus share issue that diluted and stole 33% of value of a share.

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2024-08-16 17:55 | Report Abuse

What good is secured financing, even oversubscribed if there are NO NEW PROJECTS going back 10 years. Greedy Gary will be throwing money out of the HO windows as there is no way to burn it through contracts, or any other normal way ?

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2024-08-14 11:14 | Report Abuse

Yes. I am lining up for Borneo Oil. With crude at 80+ usd that may be the bargain now.