Check the news. Greedy Gary is giving himself millions of shares and here is 60k for MGMNT. Seems unbalanced.

Greedy Gary is giving himself millions of shares and here is 60k for MGMNT. Seems unbalanced.

Let us NOT kid ourselves. We, investors, are not going to make any profit, unless Armada management gets off their asses and start looking for new contract. Project division has been sitting 'half' idle for 5 years now.

They applied for extension. That is it. Nothing else to offer.

Agree Niki. Those were your catalysts, with some comments by me and others put together in one post.
Many thanks for providing them and commenting.
There should not have been Kraken problem in the first place, but they still deserve credit.

Here are the catalysts from a year ago. I publish for long term investors to assess what was achieved.
____________________________________________
Potential Bumi Armada Re-rating catalysts:

0) Repair of the Kraken FPSO's HSP Charge Pump Transformers so the FPSO can return to full operational capacity (Kraken FPSO presently only running at 100% capacity). Without this pre-condition met there cannot be confidence in BA ability to deliver and operate facilities.

New wins (most significant items 1 - 5):

1) Award of Cameia FPSO project in Angola from Total Energies - This is only an EPCC contract that will sustain earnings for 2-3 years. This is NOT a long-term charter contract (BOO). However; it could be valued up to 1 bln myr.No financing / rights issue needed.

2) Major FPSO contract win (large scale FPSO, likely with a JV partner) - Unlikely to happen soon as there are no known large scale bids from Bumi Armada, but possibilities exist in West Africa / South America with market rather tight in terms of supply as many suppliers are overextended. Conoco Phillips at Salam Petawali, Kelidang in Brunai or Limbayong.

3) Minor FPSO contract win (either a small/medium scale FPSO, 100% owned) - Active bids in Tuna field (Indonesia) and Palok field (Mexico). In Malaysia, Bestari (Sabah) could be an option, building upon Limbayong negotiations.

4) Non-FPSO contract win (either 100% owned or JV) - e.g. FSRU, FSU, FSO - The Mumbai Port FSRU project has been deferred. No other publicly known bids for now. ESG funding at preferred rate may be available.

5) New contract win for the 2 SC vessels in the Caspian Sea and 1 JV-owned SC vessel in Indonesia. Potential for new wins for the Caspian Sea vessels is high as flurry of work in the region exists due to high oil price environment. Lukoil gave contract to BAB in 22, also paid OSV despice sanctions. All 3 vessels as of 31 Dec 2022 were laid up. Alternative to contract for the Caspian Sea work: sale, move assets home, contract elsewhere.

Other positive developments (items 6 - 10):

6) Green energy goals (leading to ESP score upgrades and ESG rerating up to 6% by IB):
a) "Green energy" initiatives for future FPSO/non-FPSO wins (e.g. zero flaring or fully electrified FPSO)
b) Decarbonisation for existing fleet of FPSO
c) Diversification into floating CCS and other "green" structures

7) Business as usual objecties:
a) Full acceptance of Armada Sterling V FPSO by ONGC at the 98/2 field in India
b) Confirmation of sale or scrapping of Armada Claire FPSO (Done)
c) Full divestment of the remaining offshore vessel (Done)

8) Contract extensions:
a) Positive development at the Kraken field, such as drilling of the Kraken Western flank or tieback to the nearby Bressay and Bentley fields - This would signal long-term contract extension for Armada Kraken FPSO which is due to expire in Q3 2025. For now, EnQuest has indefinitely deferred drilling due to commence in 2023 because of the newly introduced windfall tax in the UK. Also, excessive drilling may lead to adopting new solution by EnQuest. Existing setup satisfactory with 0.5 mln USD bare boat charter.
b) Confirmation of contract extension for Armada TGT FPSO in Vietnam - Might only be announced in Q4 2024, but it's all but certain the contract will be extended as new wells are still being pursued in the aged TGT field. (jPending).
c) Contract extension of Armada Sterling II (due in Q4 2024). Achieved for only 1 year at lower rate than original contract.

9) Positive Financials:
a) QR of 3+ sens
b) IB re-rating to RM 0.90
c) Gearing down to around 0.5
d) Counter price increase to > RM 1 (no more penny stock discount) causing institutional, foreign and private equity / family trust buying.

10) Improved distribution of the stock:
a) Involving more large / public investors, institutional buying by means of formal inclusion in KLSE index, sector index, ESG rating, pension fund committment, etc (other than just by not being a penny stock).
b) Company presentations to the investors overseas, e.g. USA, resulting in purchases by 'deep pocket' significant shareholders at > 5%.
c) Significant insider's buying as a sign of confidence. So far, only the president has been making steady investment.

Bonus general catalysts that can be included in the score as well, independent of BAB:

11) Positive oil and gas industry fundamentals
a) Oil price at > 100 USD per barrel
b) Commodities supercycle with basic commodity prices firming up overall, even if oil < 100 USD
c) China recovery
d) Strategic Petroleum Reserve buying in the US
e) Interest rates going down substantially, 2% for 10 year US Treasure Bond

YES. I studied Sumatec. Took them 10 years to delist. They extended the process. Application. Revision. Extension. Etc.
The difference is that Alam makes profit. Probably fake, but still can attract capital.

I do not believe in delisting. Any company can submit a plan on the paper.

Buenos dias. I do not believe it will help BA financially by means of earnings. But it will create some good publicity. Possibly allow for rerating. Low interest loans. Subsidies.

Alam needs to formulate a regularization plan. Obtain approval from bursa. Execute plan. Then have 2 successive quarters of profits and apply for PN17 exit. This will take years, if successful.

I think this web update is simply a mistake. They hired a nephew of one of the managers, and the guy is not too bright. That is speculation on my part.
What is more important is the oil price. That moves our target price to RM 0.85 in the next 12 weeks.
Target as reliable as most analyst estimates, excluding of course CIMB Raymond Yapp. That is not a speculation. Real target.
:-)

Maybe just starting to seriously look for work would do the uptick ? A project ... anything.
It has been 9 years and they just coast.

The FCSIU projects are of no value to Bumi Armada. Only heavily subsidized by government corporation that can secure additional grants and freebies can carry them out. For that one has to be based in a politically motivated rich country that can waste taxpayers funds on new green initiatives.

I have been considering watches, yet I think that a coin is a better store of value. Though you cannot wear or display a coin. Do you recomend them for Barakah shareholders specifically ? Earnings are poor and nobody here makes money.

This company NEVER fails to disappoint.
Sometimes I think they cannot do more of this failing as it has been already overplayed. They should have learned.
Like Kraken operational problems returning back to life after few years of operation.
Or impairments.
But here it comes, another delay with new FPSO Story.
Seems any problem I think of comes to life.
It is like a movie where the hero turn out to be a villan, causing all havoc.
Maybe Greedy Gary is that villan ... ?
And what is the new dejavu ?
My bet is legal case against a client again ...

These shoes look super. Thank you for posting. Recommended for barakah shareholders who cannot buy originals in light of dismal performace of this counter ?

This devaluation of vessel applies to every bond. When interest rate changes, bond can lose half of its value.
That is why they declare them 'held to maturity' and do not mess with the bond market value at the moment of given interest rate.

That is what BAB should be doing. Avoid scaring investors. Stick to project linear data model.
You would only change it if you want to sell the vessel (or bond), or get financing for it.

My thanks to marlboro man. Let us make things simple. Those depreciation models give investors headache. Me inclucing.
To RM0.80 target price based on our internal, i3 forum projection.

There is certain truth to it that the public should know when net book value of the asset exceeds current value in use due to the higher interest rates. This discounting of Future Payments at 8.5% result in lower valuation. The interest rates changed, hence the disclosure. Nothing to do with option charter - it was known for years.

However, Greedy Gary made a spectacle out of it. He could have kept it in asset valuation rather than allowing to crash earnings. But that is Greedy Gary, he has only one concern, his free shares. Price fluctuation do not concern him.

Yes, as expected, very weak earnings. Results showing in red. And on top of this, default judgement. But things must improve eventually as every night comes to an end, and sun will rise again.

Zonefinder, explanation is from Raymond Yapp. The O&G Analyst #1 from Singapore (before Malaysia). Grateful for Raymond to include and Mkt888 to provide link.
The analysis from superficial bankers can be skipped.

Thank you for the CIMB Raymond Yapp update, Mkt. I respect Raymond. He won the award for the best Oil and Gas Analyst. His endorsment means a lot.
Greedy Gary, on the other hand, has no credibility with me. He is a manipulator. If he impairs, I suspect he does it for a personal benefit, rather than to actually reflects true value of the asset. In any case, he succeded in creating turmoil again.
The good part is that stock will go up when he finally is kicked out.

I do NOT remember Greedy Gary showing any concerns for shareholders. He was always preoccupied with the personal gain - free or subsidized shares for himself. He never even cared to exercise basic decency. Special resolutions were made for HIS SOLE benefit, not including others in management.
And as I do not trust this greedy clown, I am not going to let him induce me to sell.
I will wait a bit.
We shall see what his scheme is all about.
Sure not about concerns for shareholders.

HUGE loss and impairment like the one during the worst days of Kraken delays.
Greedy Gary in utter deparation starts talking future projects. Only now he realizes that something needs to be done ?
_______________________________________________
Moving forward, we continue to explore ways to enhance shareholder value including new projects and possible corporate activities.”

An interesting point, Enuest lost arbitration case and now had to deposit some RM 70 mln to file an appeal. I think Petronas is also on the hook. They owe it legally to PBJV.
Hope there is still money left over. Their appetite for investment in Malaysia may diminish. Also the ability to replace Armada Kraken with a different unit.

I wonder what the earnings will be like. My guess is: weak.

Good morning and good week everyone.
Hope we hear about new contract here this week.
Analyst should ask about those on the topic of future projections.

Personally I do NOT believe in Carbon Capture project. You can buy credits for 18 USD in Brazil. Why would you pay Bumi Armada 80 USD for same credit ...

The only benefit is good mention by Investor Bankers in their recommendations.

Welcome back to our counter grindstone.
Well, it was a slow day today.
Oil price recovered, and we are now at $82+
Target for this counter (BAB) is MYR 0.82 for me now.

On the other side ....
We have limited time for BAB price appreciation.
Every few months they come up with a new disaster.
Kraken failure, huge impairments, lost court cases, no new contract from Total for Cameia, Sterling V delays, empty green intitiative with no follow ups, etc.
Let us hope that there is no new catastrope until earnings and a few days after.
That will give us a chance to collect a small reward.
Good luck in the new chinese year to all.

Happy Chinese New Year everyone.
Let us have some enjoyment knowing the share price stabilized.
Also Brent is above 80 USD.

I know very, very well it has no bearing on Armada.
But many investors do not. And they affect the price.
I wish them happy CNY too.
🕺💃

Charter rates may or may not be based on oil price. But Armada surely is.
Oil price stabilized and even went up a bit to $78.
Armada counter stabilizes too. Soon to move up as well ?

In case you wonder why Armada is down today, Brent Crude OIl is at $77 and going down.

No problem rohank. I think we are teasing you. In any case, today's action WAS a humbling experience.
MYR 0.535 at one time.
So low considering Kraken is OK and AS V is now online.
We did not predict this.

Yes, you did. And I was arguing that you needed to check financial figures, project prospects, etc in the past. But the overall O&G market still impacts us, like a low tide. I guess not much can be done today. Until next week.
Houthis will do their work for sure.

It went down 1 sen. That is 2% or about the same % as the drop it Brent.
We need to give some time to adjust to the lower crude future.

Hope you had a good holiday. Welcome back.

Today some bad news. Brent has dramatically fallen to 78 USD.
We shall see if it affects the price.
New target is now MYR 0.78 in 90 days (based on the futures).

Yes. Good time to grab more.
The stock value just passed 200 day Moving Average.
Golden Cross is a 100% bullish indicator that many follow.

Also, Brent at 83.3 USD means that the short term target of BA is MYR 0.83.

😁

I got tired of explaining: BAB independent of Brent. A few years wasted.
Let us follow the Brent Crude Oil Price and avoid arguing about it.

Brent up to $82 so Armada should be MYR 0.82.

Logical.

I bought Armada in 2019. Shortly after Greedy Gary became the president of BA. He visited Kraken and claimed credit for the end to the debacle. Then many here were so happy that he solved the problem. Turns out it might have been worked out by the predecessor.

Greedy Gary was universally admired and a lot of hope appeared on this forum. He was to deliver new projects. Had ideas. And he signed a few memoranda, but delivered NOTHING.
That is his performance.

Only achievement of his is the size of his BA holdings. He got more shares that anyone (I consider that Ananda K is an enterprise person making money from investment, not a private working individual). Greedy Gary is now the biggest private shareholder (person who works for a salary). This guy cannot restrain himself from raking in anything in sight. Maybe he comes from a poor family and just cannot get enough. Not saying it to attack. Just trying to find the reason.

The news is only 6 hour old. What Armada could not deliver, Italians can do. It turns out that Italy boleh.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/saipem-nears-fpso-deal-with-chinese-yard-for-6-billion-angola-project/2-1-1584346

I guess Greedy Gary is busy thinking of the free shares for himself this AGM and his mind is not focused on company business. I wonder how many millions will he award himself this time. My guess is about 8 mln shares.

55 coming soon. Then 56.
I can sell some I bought prematurely in Novermber.
Well, at least no loss then.
:-)

Niki, BA did NOT participate in Abadi in any way.
Yes, I was referring to their intention to participate in the Indonesian CCS project, and this one would be similar. I do not believe Japan has resources to handle it all. They will have to cooperate.

Chance of a CCS for Armada for this project.
I remember it and worked with many people from it when it was canceled a few years ago.
______________________________________
INPEX received government approval for the revised development plan for its long-delayed Abadi liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in eastern Indonesia.

The Japanese energy company submitted the revised plan to Indonesian government authorities on 4 April 2023, incorporating a carbon capture and storage (CCS) component into the existing development plan.

The company said in a press release that the project would be the first in which CCS-related costs are eligible for recovery based on the production-sharing contract (PSC) that governs crude oil and natural gas upstream operations in Indonesia.

Approval of the revised development plan “paves the way for INPEX and its partners to fully mobilize the project as a clean project in support of the energy transition."

INPEX and its project partners plan to amend the PSC to incorporate CCS into the contractual scope of work, resume project operations, including on-site activities, and prepare for front-end engineering and design work.

Abadi is in the Masela block, 150 km offshore Saumlaki in Maluku province, Indonesia. It is estimated to hold nearly 10 Tcf of recoverable natural gas reserves.

The annual LNG production volume for the project is expected to reach 9.5 mtpa, equivalent to more than 10% of Japan’s annual LNG imports,and up to about 35,000 bbl of condensate daily. The project will also supply 150 MMcf/D of natural gas via pipeline to address local demand.

INPEX holds a 65% operating interest in Masela PSC and is the operator of the Abadi gas project. Pertamina holds a 20% operating interest, and Petronas Masela holds a 15% operating interest. The two companies officially became partners in the Abadi LNG project on 18 October 2023, following the completion of the conditions precedent under the sales and purchase agreement on the transfer of Shell’s participating interest.

I kept watching the two SQ vessels all 2023 and it was disappointing to see them sit idle. Russia has been pumping out a lot of oil and exporting it to support war effort.

It clearly indicated BA Sterling V.
__________________________________
ONGC fires up oil production from flagship deep-water asset
First oil flows from the Armada Sterling V FPSO
7 January 2024 15:33 GMT UPDATED 7 January 2024 23:23 GMT

Happy New Year 2024 to all BA interested. Let's hope for a revival of the stock next year.

On no news at all is tubling like a rock.
Insiders must already know something.
It is never without a reason

Based on the suudden spike it the stock price at 9:40 am....
If insiders can be trusted.

Minor issue. But we had a dozen of them. Aggravation builds up. In the end we want result, not a new story.

Raymond Yap of CIMB is the guy. #1 rated analyst for energy. He is now more upbeat despite slightly lowering the target. Not sure why he includes Kraken debacle as a major risk. You could say this of any vessel for any company. Breakdown can occur. Otherwise I am in full agreement.