The CRPS sold for rm1, the conversion rate is base on the 5day average price +10% premium. Previous tranches is set at 0.48 as the share price be press down to around 0.44. This is the main reason I not expect share price up much soon. However, with current price stand well at rm0. 63 - rm0. 71. The next tranch conversion price shall be much higher.
If the Repsol acquisition is good and crude oil is trending higher, what cause hibiscus to trade at current valuation? If there's any explanation, there's only one left, i.e., hisbiscus has been issuing those convertible debt to short-term investors and they have been selling their position and profiting from current trend. Meanwhile, we minorities who is supposed to enjoy higher share price thanks to higher crude oil price has to endure those sellers profiting at our expense.
The way of CRPS are much responsible than those pp used by other companies. If you don't want to convert CRPS, investor still can enjoy 4% interest. If hibiscus not able to secure good asset with the condition as disclosed within certain period, they will return the raised money to CRPS investor + 4% annual interest.
For pp, normally there's a negative premium, that means at least 10% discount from the 5day average price. However, the CRPS is + 10% premium, that means the conversion price is 5 day avg price + 10%.
It depends whether you are short term or long term investor. As I said, share price won't up much due to the CRPS pp concern. However, for the long term, share price will be reflected base on its intrinsic value.
It depends whether you are short term or long term investor. As I said, share price won't up much due to the CRPS pp concern. However, for the long term, share price will be reflected base on its intrinsic value.
When you see the previous CRPS conversion rate is at 0.48 and think its not fair to you as current price at 0.71. Why you not buy more when the share price was at 0.44+?
I regret not buy much during that time as I not dare to invest much. However since the CRPS holder dare to go in at that time, thus it no surprise they can enjoy more profit than us.
if following the boss is the right move, it's then those following him to acquire those CPRS are the one making money at our expense. If Repsol deal is good, share price should reflect accordingly. Ideally speaking, Hibiscus should follow crude price, like when crude between 65-70, hibiscus between 0.xx-0.yy and so forth. Though, despite good Repsol acquisition and crude at 72, hibiscus has been performing as if crude is below 65. Thus, if there's any explanation, those CPRS holders are eating minorities lunch at this moment!
Cpsr is fixed at rm 1, just the conversion rate will depends on the 5day avg price + 10% premium. For previous batch example, let's said you buy 100 unit cprs with rm 100 and the conversion rate is rm 0.48. If you not convert, you can get 4% interest rate. If you convert it, then you can get about 200 units hibiscus.
For the next tranche, I believe the conversion rate will be more than 0.48 as share price stands well at 0.7. If they want to issue 1 more tranche, if the 5day avg price is rm0. 7, then the convertion rate will be 0.77.
Stock price is not simple as oil price in 70usd, then it shall be at xx etc. For example, the company want to raise some money for this acquisition through cpsr. If the price too high, its not easy for them to get interest from investor. As such, I believe the share price will be control/ press down for certain period.
waiting for Energy chart move up again than price might continue to move up. If not susah sikit. But hibiscus somehow will always follow Brent price. Hari ini hijau dia pun hijau. hehehe. https://www.isaham.my/stock/energy
I increase my portfolio of hibuscuss from 10% to 25% on yesterday with price 0.705 and I will just keep it for long term as long as oil price not drop below usd 55. If hit my target rm 1, will sold 50% and leave the balance there. That's my strategic plan.
I can't make suggestion for you but just share what I am doing. It seems many not read through the announcement report properly, thus I am just sharing the fact base on the figure from the announcement report. You shall make the decision yourself.
Most of the previous trance of CRPS issue ald be converted to hibiscuss share and thus increase the total shares from 1500m+ to 1900m+. Most probably they will issue 1 more tranch for this deal and I believe the conversion price will be atleast 0.7+.
I bought into hibiscus when crude is at 60-62 range if I were not wrong, believing then that crude will rise to above 70, hopefully between 75-80 range. When crude began its rise to 70+, hibiscus hit a high of 0.745 and it began to fall. It took another attempt to rise above 0.72 but couldn't even reach 0.745. If I were not wrong, years back, when crude is traded around 70+, hibiscus was actually above 0.90. So, I believe something is not right, if not with the management, it must be with the company's production capability or hibiscus has issued way too many shares that what the market is willing to absorb.
Given current scenario, it further strengthen what I believe. So, best don't add anymore position.
For oil price from usd 60 to usd 70, share price already increase from 0.6 to 0.7. If compare with previous records, share price stand well at rm 1 when oil price at usd70. For my point of view, there's 3 possible eason : 1) Cprs- pp - dilution of share. 2) covid sentiment 3) EV
1) hibiscus announce 2000m units cprs on Sept 2020, so far, 200m units cprs be issue and most of them be convert to hibiscus shares. Most of us worried about the dilution issue include me. I am rest assure until I see the repsol deal and its payment structure.
2) covid sentiment. Yes, the oil price is usd 70+ now but I believe many still worry about the covid sentiment. U can't compare with the situation in 2018/2019 as there's no covid sentiment that time. Anyway, it's on track fo recovering with more people take the vaccine
3) EV sentiment. Many believe oil price will crash with the coming EV. However, after further study, I found its true but it will only happened, at least after 2030++
For me, I see the value of hibiscus base on what we discussed before. I will just keep it and wait patiently to be reward. I may be wrong but I am happy to see its still on track so far.
Yesterday event already push this stock to crazy level & even in top list counter, but it is still below expectation & shark is not follow... there is something being cover up?
Agree with flyinv ,nowadays ppls like to chase high..enter without reasons..if repsol agreement so good,why the price drop from higher..now Brent keep rise..it suppose shld be excellent..
Last time many said oil need to up until 70 above only only can move, now some say 80 only wil move, now already 72, and asset had been bought, what happen now? Oil not that easy lah, unlike glove, electronic, sometime it's very torture if I choose to hold this sector.
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Jasonn
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Posted by Jasonn > 2021-06-09 11:40 | Report Abuse
The CRPS sold for rm1, the conversion rate is base on the 5day average price +10% premium. Previous tranches is set at 0.48 as the share price be press down to around 0.44. This is the main reason I not expect share price up much soon. However, with current price stand well at rm0. 63 - rm0. 71. The next tranch conversion price shall be much higher.