Posted by DickyMe > 2021-06-09 22:24 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by micsoh > 2021-06-09 22:52 | Report Abuse

If this asset acquisition issue cannot push this share to at least 80sen, then ready don't what else can we expect.

Posted by micsoh > 2021-06-09 23:07 | Report Abuse

Yeah, I been consider it.

Posted by behyun > 2021-06-09 23:43 | Report Abuse

conpom oil hitting 80 usd. mark my word

Posted by linheng > 2021-06-10 05:32 | Report Abuse

Once the earning show, the price will move up. Got to be patient

Posted by kakiminyak > 2021-06-10 08:03 | Report Abuse

oil price go up is not enough. Demand must go up for higher revenue. Crude oil price go up because Opec+ squeeze the supply. But production is cut, which means less money for the producers. Have to give the market time to recover. Hopefully by next year. Stay cool guys.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-06-10 08:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvin5025 > 2021-06-10 09:02 | Report Abuse

told to sell already

Posted by sheep > 2021-06-10 09:17 | Report Abuse

sell, sell, sell. buy back below 0.63. heavy , very heavy volumes due today... sure win...wakaka

Posted by Jojobaa > 2021-06-10 09:20 | Report Abuse

Jojobaa Jojobaa is predicting a 50% upside for hibiscus in the next 6 months pending completion of the Repsol deal and 50% more after the completion of the Repsol deal.

First off, let's look at the macro environment for oil. Much has been said about the replacement of RE over oil. Oil's demand is approximately 45% gasoline, 18% petrochemicals, 18-20% in distillates/diesel, 6% aviation and the rest in other categories such as power generation, household etc.

While the emergence of EV will eat into the 45% gasoline demand, it is to be noted that this will happen over time, over a very very long time. Considering that the global car population stands at 1.4 billion, and that EV delivery for Tesla, stands at 1 million cars in deliveries, how many Teslas (and other big EV manufacturers) do you need to deliver in order to replace the entire 1.4billion car population and specifically how many years? Global car deliveries amount to 90 million per year and by my research, it would be a challenge itself for delivery of 4 million EV in 2021, representing a mere 5% of entire car deliveries for the year and even a smaller fraction of the entire car population. The key point here is that Gasoline demand may very well decrease, but it will take a very very long period of time before it vanishes. This is not even taking into account the supply chain associated with the production of Lithium Ion and infrastructure (charging station) needed to effectively transition into a global car population consisting mainly of EV only.

At the same time, the ESG push has also forced non state owned oil majors to cut down heavily on capital expenditure. Typically, oil producers have a reserve life that can last 10 years - 15 years of production. In order to merely maintain production, the capital expenditure of oil producers need to be maintained year on year in order to sustain this. If you reduce capital expenditure by 10%, then somewhere down the road, your production or supply will come down by 10%, all else equal. As non stated owned oil majors synchronize a capex cut across the board the oil supply will face a crunch, and not even the increased investment from state owned major will be able to cover this gap, as cash is a finite resource, and state owned majors will have an obligation to plug their budget deficits that they have accrued to support their respective economy during the Covid years.

The long explanation above merely points to the fact that oil will not lose its value overnight, on the contrary based on these facts above, one can reasonably expect oil to surge in the very near future, as the SUPPLY CRUNCH WILL OUTWEIGHT THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN DEMAND. A simple question to make my point, do us Malaysians expect to see 15% of EV on the road next year? Maybe 2025? Well, Exxonmobil just cut its capital expenditure versus pre covid by 30% for two years straight. If 50% of the oil supply by oil majors cuts their capex by half then in theory, gasoline demand will decrease by 15%, which means 6 million barrels of oil demand lost. However supply theoretically decreased by 15 million. This relationship isn't perfect but it is up to you to weigh it.

Now, if what I'm predicting above comes true, tell me, do you want a piece of Hibiscus now or not?

Posted by sampooler > 2021-06-10 09:21 | Report Abuse

Yes.. this tues i already felt something wrong... good luck.

Posted by sampooler > 2021-06-10 10:00 | Report Abuse

Usually june july aug are the month of global market crash... be very careful.

2 cents.

Posted by profit profits > 2021-06-10 10:13 | Report Abuse

akong invite people for morning tea market also drop

Posted by Godofgambler > 2021-06-10 10:13 | Report Abuse

Congratulations...
You think you smell something wrong
Why still join this smelly sheet hibiscus forum?
Should run away.

Posted by micsoh > 2021-06-10 10:14 | Report Abuse

65 Sen coming, this stock always like this, push higher than pump down for them to collect.

Posted by Bugg333 > 2021-06-10 13:01 | Report Abuse

Say fund by CRPS of 1 bil units
Current share is 2 bil units
Ebita 2022 = 250mil (existing) + 550mil (New)
PAT say 50% = 400mil for 2022
400mil/ 3 bil shares x 10PE = RM 1.3++
Unless there is big impairment/ depreciation again

Posted by Jojobaa > 2021-06-10 14:01 | Report Abuse

Now Jojobaa will talk about the cash flow and profitability of Hibiscus Petroleum, which Jojobaa thinks that the investment community is severely underestimating.

Today Hibiscus Petroleum, pre-Repsol acquisition, has a production of 9,500 barrels a day, translating loosely to 3.4-3.7 million barrels of oil production a year. There is no seasonality involved, they produce consistently at this rate, as oil is a commodity.

To reconcile the revenue of Hibiscus is fairly simple, you take the amount of oil sold multiply by the oil price realized. Hibiscus does not traditionally have a hedging policy. For illustration purposes, since 1 April 2021, oil price has been hovering bound range between USD60 to USD70. Let us try to forecast the annual P&L of Hibiscus for FY2022, before the Repsol assets are consolidated.

Based on production of 3.7 million barrels based on an exchange rate of USD1 to RM4.1, the yearly revenue of Hibiscus is RM986 million. This essentially means that with yearly production remaining constant until depleted (HIbiscus has a reserves of 40 million 2P oil which will last them approximately 10 years given current production rate) oil price is the single most important to the revenue and results of Hibiscus Petroleum, and no such companies on Bursa has its results tied so much to the Brent oil price.

Following on let's talk about the cost structure, there are two types of costs that Hibiscus Petroleum has to pay. First is its opex costs, meaning the cost of depreciation of machineries, manpower, power etc. This ranges from USD13-20 bucks depending on the uptime of the production.

Second there are other costs not associated directly to the operation that includes provision for decomissioning liabilities and abandonment of oil field at the end of its life, head office costs and other costs.

All in all, per barrel of oil, the ALL IN costs of Hibiscus should be circa USD35-40 bucks per barrel. For discussion sake, let us use USD40 ALL IN cost to illustrate the numbers that Hibiscus can generate.

3.7 million x (65 - 40) = RM380 million profit before tax

PAT will be RM380 million x 0.62 (Oil income tax is 38%) = RM235 million.

How significant is the Repsol Acquisition? Assuming the economics and numbers of the Repsol assets are like for like to Hibiscus's existing assets, Hibiscus's profit is expected to triple to RM700 million as will triple its production profile. However, without getting the opex base, carrying value of its intangibles and PPE, the provision of decommissioning liabilities, it would be difficult to pinpoint the exact numbers of the Repsol assets. The announcement of the transaction did reveal the profitability of the Kinabalu PSC and the PM3CAA PSC which equates to about RM400 million in 2018 when oil price was trading at a similar level to now.

Jojobaa is of the view that the oil market will thrive in the coming near term and hence Hibiscus will be at the forefront top pick to benefit from this thesis. If you do not believe oil price will trade at anything above USD50 USD for the coming years, then it is best you avoid this stock.

Posted by Jasonn > 2021-06-10 15:38 | Report Abuse

Totally agree. One more thing to add on, asset depreciation is related to non cash deduction, thus the actual cash flow from existing operating will much more than 300m. If add these new asset, the actual cash come in from operating will > 600m.

Posted by Jasonn > 2021-06-10 15:48 | Report Abuse

We talk many about the good side and the bad side is the high capex for new exploring and development oil fields and drilling of new well etc. For the new repsol asset, they will need about usd 100m for 1 exploration and 2 development oil field project in coming years. In UK, also about usd 100m+ for 2 development oil fields ( teal West, Eagle field). Marigold & sunflowers development oil fields will also need much more capex. Other than that, they also have a usd 35m capex project for existing anasuria oil fields but it will be at later stage as need to wait dnex to complete & raise fund for it.

Posted by Jasonn > 2021-06-10 15:51 | Report Abuse

Overall, it need more than 1000m capex in these few years for the above mentioned projects. Daily oil production output will be much increase as a results from these high capex.

Posted by kakiminyak > 2021-06-10 19:56 | Report Abuse

Jojobaa Your views and analysis is much appreciated. I am in for the long term. Short term market fluctuations in share price does not matter to me. May the Bunga Raya grow many branches and flowers. Cheers !!!

Posted by SBHeng > 2021-06-10 20:40 | Report Abuse

Just episode 1, master can predict ending oredi, enter to buy ticket watching movie.

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-06-10 22:14 | Report Abuse

Sell on news!!!

Posted by SiuZizi > 2021-06-10 22:52 | Report Abuse

Keep for long term collect when low price!!

Posted by kakiminyak > 2021-06-11 01:23 | Report Abuse

G7 meeting this weekend. U.S. going to make announcement- Donating 500 million Pfizer vaccines to poorer countries. European countries expected to donate also. This is good news for reopening of travel in many countries in the coming months. Demand for crude oil should start to rise. Good times ahead.

Posted by kahhoeng > 2021-06-11 09:27 | Report Abuse

without repsol deal, hibiscus should be flying given higher brent. Now, with repsol deal, hibiscus barely move, why? Guess only one explanation, many doubts over the deal...

Posted by slingsot > 2021-06-11 10:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jojobaa for an in-depth view. Enjoyed it very much.

The chart shows a steady uptrend and support is seen around 0.67. Also I read that Scott Harney, founder of Harmonic Trading, is of the view that oil will trade 75-100 in 23/24.

I am am amateur trader. What Jojobaa said reinforces my belief. Thanks!

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2021-06-11 10:06 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jojobaa for the analysis. I might add, as a Malaysian, I can't afford any EV car unless the price drop to Myvi range. So I can say the usage of oil still required in a very long term.

Posted by Reap88 > 2021-06-11 12:28 | Report Abuse

Slowly coming back to reality after all the excitement. Must show profit first to justify the optimistic projections

Posted by Jojobaa > 2021-06-11 13:58 | Report Abuse

Since Jojobaa has spoken about the macro economics of the oil supply/demand relationship, Jojobaa will now speak about the transaction of Repsol, and how the structure of the acquisition and the mechanics involved is designed to minimize the risk, and maximize the upside of the deal.

Google Hibiscus's chart, and you will notice that its share price has gone up from 20 cents in 2016 to about 1 dollar 2018/2019. Why? Between this period, Hibiscus bought its North Sabah asset, and increased its production from 2500 to 9000 barrels a day. It also benefited from an increase in oil price, and the acquisition is the main reason why Hibiscus's market cap and share price surged post acquisition. If you do your M&A right like the management of Hibiscus, you can add a lot of value to its shareholders.

Now let us look at the details of the acquisition. How much you pay for an acquisition and HOW you pay for an acquisition, determines how much value you create or destroy for your shareholders. You pay more, over the long term you decrease your eps and there is no incremental value to be derived from the acquisition. You pay less, over the long term you increase your eps and your shareholders are better off post acquisition than pre acquisition.

Transaction value is approximately USD215 million for 34 million barrels of 2p oil, equating to about USD6.30 per barrel of oil. Remember my explanation above that at USD65, the net profit margin of a barrel of oil should be USD15.5 after accounting for petroleum income tax. This is in comparison to other comparables lower than most other companies such as Enquest but I would not focus too much on this. Even though this is amongst the cheapest if not the cheapest amongst its comparables, it is only a mere valuation benchmark as it does not take into account the production costs and other factors for consideration, amongst others. Comparables are known to trade at 8-16 USD per barrel of oil.

Second, we look at the how is the purchase consideration to be satisfied. Out of 860 million ringgit of consideration to be paid upon completion of the acquisition, the sources of fund are as follows:
a) 200 million already raised from CRPS and available in Hibiscus trust account;
b) 200 mil in additional CRPS to be raised over the next 6 months;
c) borrowings of 200 mil from financial institutions to be sought; and
d) the rest from the working capital/dividend to be declared from the Repsol assets as at completion date.

Jojobaa's commentary is that the risk onward from Hibiscus is very minimal as a) 200 million has already been raised prior, and c) 200 million from the production of Repsol asset attributable to Hibiscus since 1 January 2021 (out of ebitda of 550 million projected for 2022) is already earmarked to fund this purchase consideration. Sure, there might be uncertainty over whether Hibiscus can raise 200 mil from additional CRPS placement, but let me remind everyone that Hibiscus raised 200 mil when oil price is 40-50USD. Now smart money will be on that Hibiscus will be able to raise the additional 200 mil USD when oil price is trading at its current level. The borrowings source of funding is a good move to have an optimized capital structure, as Hibiscus will have an estimated combined EBITDA of 1B ringgit and by going for RM200 mil of borrowings, the risk attached to the borrowings is very very minimal. One quarter of EBITDA can in theory pay off the borrowings, though that is just in theory.

Hibiscus is paying USD165 mil to buy an asset worth USD215 million. Based on an EBITDA generation of RM550 million, if oil price sustains well above USD60, Hibiscus would have almost paid back itself on the investment in 2022 and enjoy 5 more years of RM550 mil of ebitda annually. Coupled with its current EBITDA of 350 to 400 million ringgit, I do expect Hibiscus to generate close to RM1 billion of EBITDA in calendar year 2021 inclusive of the Repsol acquisition.

Again, Hibiscus's fate from this acquisition ties its own fate a lot to the Brent crude oil prices. If crude oil prices is stable throughout these few years, then Hibiscus would be making super profit and super cash flows in it. If Brent crude oil plunges to a level of say USD40 per barrel then Hibiscus would surely not be creating value from this acquisition. Hibiscus has shown that management has traditionally use M&A and is one of the few companies on Bursa to have a superb track record with M&A. My money's on them to use this exercise to transform them into a much bigger animal.

Posted by Investformilkmoney > 2021-06-11 14:40 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jojobaa. Now in wish I have more to put in.

Posted by Rehan > 2021-06-11 16:22 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jojobaa for detailed workout. This looks like a steal.

I think the only risk now is that of the Repsol deal not going through for some reason or the other. If Oil price keeps going up , Repsol itself may try to wriggle out using some excuse. Not sure whether is binding for both there parties. Not sure what conditional SPA means.

I think even without Repsol, Hibiscus deserves much higher value in the light of higher crude price.

Posted by derrtan > 2021-06-11 18:59 | Report Abuse

Cleared T3. Hope up monday

Posted by Godofgambler > 2021-06-12 02:16 | Report Abuse

Those who sell today will regret..
Look at the oil price now!!!!!
Monday rocketttt

Posted by hebeds > 2021-06-12 07:34 | Report Abuse

Hi, can I ask when the repsol contribution will effect in qr? Next qr? Thanks guys

Posted by slingsot > 2021-06-12 10:50 | Report Abuse

Is it reasonable to target 1.3?

Posted by lloydlim > 2021-06-12 13:19 | Report Abuse

https://www.chinapress.com.my/?p=2547527

Posted by Gain83 > 2021-06-12 15:35 | Report Abuse

Gogogo is hibiscus show time

Posted by derrtan > 2021-06-12 21:15 | Report Abuse

the biggest issue with this hibiscus is no BB. No Big investor come in to keep its share one. up more than 0.05 to 0.1 all throw already.

Posted by Godofgambler > 2021-06-13 04:12 | Report Abuse

BP saw the largest increase in profit in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period of 2020, the agency’s calculations showed.

BP reported a profit attributable to shareholders of $4.7 billion in Q1 2021, compared to a loss of $4.4 billion for the first quarter of 2020. The supermajor resumed share buybacks this quarter after more than tripling its first-quarter earnings from a year ago on the back of rising oil prices and “exceptional gas marketing and trading performance.” BP reported underlying replacement cost profit—its proxy for net profit—of $2.63 billion, up from $791 million for the first quarter of last year and from just $115 million for the fourth quarter of 2020.

In terms of revenues, Anadolu Agency’s estimates show that combined revenues of the top ten oil firms increased by 6.6 percent annually to around $387 billion. Saudi Aramco’s revenues rose the most—by 20 percent to $80 billion.

The Saudi giant also reported a 30-percent jump in net income for the first quarter of the year to $21.7 billion.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2021-06-13 10:36 | Report Abuse

Oil price hits multi-year highs in third weekly gain on demand recovery
Saturday, 12 Jun 2021 7:01 AM MYT

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/06/12/oil-price-hits-multi-year-highs-in-third-weekly-gain-on-demand-recovery

New York: Oil prices reached fresh multi-year highs on Friday, closing out a third straight week of gains on an improve outlook for worldwide demand as Covid-19 vaccination rate help lift pandemic curbs.
Brent crude futures settled at US$72.69 a barrel, rising 17 cents after reaching their highest since May 2019.
For the week Brent was up 1%

Posted by linheng > 2021-06-13 11:07 | Report Abuse

Got to wait for the results to reflect the high oil price. Meanwhile time to accumulate

Posted by kahhoeng > 2021-06-13 22:47 | Report Abuse

The last quarter report showed increased profits eaten by enlarged share base. Hopefully, repsol deal concluded soon without too much dilution that'll start to show increasing per share profit

Posted by Tang Khangseng > 2021-06-13 22:56 | Report Abuse

No one concern on the “Deferred tax liabilities and Provision for decommissioning costs” which cost about 488mil and 303mil? I seriously don’t understand why many are saying this is net cash company…anyone mind to explain? Thanks

Posted by izoklse > 2021-06-13 22:58 | Report Abuse

Goldman Sachs Doubles Down On $80 Oil Prediction

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-Sachs-Doubles-Down-On-80-Oil-Prediction.html

Posted by izoklse > 2021-06-13 23:06 | Report Abuse

Crude oil: New super cycle or continued price moderation?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3D3CyrzRsw

Posted by BilisMrJ39 > 2021-06-13 23:36 | Report Abuse

Deferred tax liabilities is accounting term to reconcile difference of depreciation and capital allowance claimed.

Provision for decommissioning cost is provision for future expenses to fill up the earth hole or remove the oil production facilities when the oilfield fully drilled. It is very common for O&G industry.

It's not a net cash company, but low debt and low gearing.


Posted by Tang Khangseng > Jun 13, 2021 10:56 PM | Report Abuse

No one concern on the “Deferred tax liabilities and Provision for decommissioning costs” which cost about 488mil and 303mil? I seriously don’t understand why many are saying this is net cash company…anyone mind to explain? Thanks

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2021-06-14 10:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Reap88 > 2021-06-14 10:41 | Report Abuse

You are absolutely right Tang Khangseng. Hibiscus needs to allocate funds of RM303M for decommissioning costs. Hibiscus has cash & bank balances of only RM109M which may not be enough to cover even the decommissioning costs So where are the internal funds for the Repsol deal going to come from?

Posted by bullmarket1628 > 2021-06-14 10:46 |

Post removed.Why?