Barakah Offshore Petroleum Bhd (Barakah), en-route for a listing on 6 Nov-13 from the RTO exercise, is another upstream oil & gas company to watch. We are projecting a 3-year net profit CAGR of 30.1%, underpinned by its: (i) existing RM500m HUC backlog; (ii) continued positive market share in the commissioning segment which accounted for c.70% of its total FY12 revenue, and (iii) increased subcontract work in the T&I space. Further catalysts to the stock is if it: (i) successfully secures some contracts via its joint-venture partner in the Gulf region; and (ii) manages to secure a direct contract for the Pan Malaysia T&I contract that is expected to be dished out by 1Q2014. We are initiating coverage of Barakah with an OUTPERFORM rating and target price of RM1.03/share, based on fully-diluted CY15 PER of 12x. Our target PER is at a 15% discount to its peers’ (Alam and Perisai) 14x due to its smaller asset base (it currently owns only one pipelay support vessel). This implies a 58% upside from the IPO price of RM0.65/share. We highlight that our current TP is based on a conservative viewpoint. Assuming Barakah manages to secure a whole package of the Pan Malaysia’s T&I, it would be valued at a much higher valuation of RM2.63/share.
It appeared very strange that there was plentiful arbitrage opportunity today to invest in BARAKAH LA RCULs 13/18 as the closing price was 62 cents whereas BARAKAH mother share closed at RM 1.00. Exercise price to convert RCULS 13/18 to mother price is 20 cents for the next 12 to 60 months.
If one invest in RCULs 13/18 today,say at 63 cents, and converts to Mother share after 12 months , the total purchase price including holding cost of 63 cents will be 84.89( say 85 cents )assuming interest on 63 cents is 3%. Moreover RCULs 13/18 pays an interest rate of 3.5%.
The mother share closing price today was RM 1.00 hence there was a clear arbitrage opportunity to get mother share at 85 cents by buying the RCULS 13/18. Why pay RM 1.00 to buy Barakah mother share today when one can buy RCULs at 63 cents and get the mother share at 85 cents one year from now?
In the event the mother share price drops to 85 cents one year from now, the investor who had invested in RCULs do not suffer loss whereas the buyer of mother share will experience a loss of -15 cents. What is the likelihood that Barakah share price will drop to 85 cents one year from now given that Barakah had core competent skills in T&I projects execution and PETRONAS will be awarding the T&I package soon and in the future??? Barakah business model is very niche and it will be one of the beneficiary of PETRONAS localization policy particularly on T & I project awards.
My take is there will be much more UPSIDE to Barakah mother share price one year from now and any opportunistic investor today would be buying RCULS 13/18 at say 63 cents to get the mother share at 85 cents !!! I do not comprehend why one has to pay a 15 cents premium to buy Barakah mother share at RM 1.00???
Msian retailers are of very stupid lots !!!sorry for this general comment. anyway some forumer here ask why loan stock is lower than mother !? Let me tell you and you can quickly decide what to do . This is a RCULS that can convert to mother @par,then you will ask why not same price ?ok the reason is because of 'time risk' because you ONLY can convert to mother after 6/11/2014. some people might think that i year later many things can happen !!!! If you think barakah sure go up 1 year later to 1.60 then you better sapu what ever sellers come out now !!!!!!!!!!! people are very funny,when price different they just wait n wait n wait n wait........RCULS alway slow slow quiet quiet curi curi up 2 sen 1 sen 2 sen 1 sen 2 sen .....until eventually both trading at the same price !!!!!! then that is time retailers start talking aiyah should have buy 1 year ago !!!!! anyway got money just whack guarantee 100% profit 364 days from now !!!! stonenut say sona will up 100% but no guarantee !! this RCULS got 99% guarantee unless barakah can not get petronas license n drop to 65 sen ! ki ki ki so newbie get it clear ??? normally people dont tell you so detail because rich investors all selfish punya and they want to collect at discounted price mah.(normally bank will release certain qty out to markte, once all sapu up it will same price with mother !)t
If one has confidence in Barakah management, is convinced of its business model and is willing to hold beyond 6th Nov 2014 , then one should be buying the Barakah LA RCULS 13/18 at 65 cents as the exercise price to get mother share is only 20 cents and one will be getting the mother share at 85 cents upon conversion after 6th Nov 2014 or one can still hold onto the RCULs 13/18 and sell it off at higher price.
The capital investment now is only 65 cents whereas if you buy mother share now ,the capital investment is 98 cents...In essence one can buy more RCULS 13/18 now (approx. 50% more shares)with the same investment sum...
yes but ramai kaki kontra hari semalam belum buang ma....and there are 212m LA stocks...if all are paid before the ipo at cost of 20 cents...there's nothing to lose for the initial investors even if they sell at 25 cents...lol the cost is only 20 cents...they make profit kaw-kaw...and we're playing on the edge...and hoping for their mercy
It does not make any business sense to sell at lower prices to cash out .....the shareholders of barakah are well aware of the potential business opportunities ahead n will exit at progressive higher prices..certainly much higher prices relative to current price as based on market potential, barakah is in a good position to deliver higher profits that can support higher share price in the future....it is good to be aware of potential downside for exit points only....but one must not be unduly influenced by irrational fears to the extent that it blinds decision making in an objective manner....
My take is the window of opportunity to arbitrage will diminish very soon as more investors become more knowleageable of the arbitrage opportunity between RCUL 13/18 versus Mother share.
ok now dont chase its fully value now!!! as i said time risk is there,if mother drop 15% La up another 10 % will be about there, i told you guys to sapu yesterday, not chasing today !!!!beware of big guys profit taking !!
Mode of satisfaction of Exercise/ Conversion price Tendering of securities
Exercise/ Conversion Ratio 1:1 means there is no need to pay 20 sen more to convert..... all u hv to do is to tender ur LA to covert to mother after 1 year wait....
jcool baru sekarang u want to promote? before u are comparing with TH heavy lah..or either the mama is goin to maintain at RM 1....too late man..u come in positive mode only when it is at peak..haha
and now may be time to throw..ramai tak tau LA when it is at low price...and now ramai still tak tau LA when it is already high...time patut beli..tak beli...time patut jual..dia pergi beli..haha...unless the mother move above RM 1
how much is cheap...but now risky mr jcool..any way good luck...if u bought under 70 cents...congrat...but if 74 cents....u are on the edge....only buy if u have 70% chances it will up....if 50-50...not worth it..sometimes me also do not follow the rule ..haha
dont chase first because yesterday n first day total about 6 million bought below 64 sen, they will take profit because easy money !!! try monitor YOCB, buy some below 89 sen might explore anytime...just monitor first dont simply jump in.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
itbp
54 posts
Posted by itbp > 2013-11-06 08:32 | Report Abuse
personal target price anyone?