Posted by SS13 > 3 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Thanks Kilalala3188 for the updates. Investors will stay clear of the stock if future plans are not clear. Hopefully this will change.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Going to be a long wait. Short-term catalyst, a bit far-fetched but possible...is a surprise hefty dividend since the Lees hold so much they may want to bring forward a dividend payout...

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

DIvidend is a long short for now, as IOIPG just declared the final dividend for FY2024. Next dividend may come only in Q4 FY25 towards June 2025, I think.

The AGM/EGM last week failed to spark any interest in the stock as negative headlines over-cloud the positive news.

The headline of CEO Lee withdrawing the proposal for IOIPG to participate in Shenton House redevelopment was not seen as positive, as EPF rejected the proposal. But I think that may be a blessing in disguise. I would recommend IOIPG to directly take over the project from CEO Lee at cost price as originally proposed in FY2026 when IOICB achieves occupancy rate of 95% or above.

Recent good news includes:
1) IOI Central Boulevard occupancy rate has improved from 50% in June 24 to now 68%

2) Recent prime office sales in Singapore CBD achieved record high valuation of SGD5,000 psf, which is considerably higher than the current valuation of SGD3,200 psf for IOICB. If IOICB is revalued to SGD5,000 psf, it will be revalued to SGD6.45 billion and IOIPG would be able to book in a revaluation gain of SGD2.3 billion or RM7.6 billion or NTA improved by RM1.38 per share.

3) US Fed just cut interest rates by 25 bps last Thursday, coupled with the 50bps cut in September, this will help lower interest expenses at IOICB by SGD22 million a year

4) The recently launched IOI Rio City in Bandar Puteri Puchong has a total GDV of RM12 billion, which is way higher than expected

5) REIT framework is under work in progress though details are scarce and timing not so soon, but at least the management is moving in the right direction

6) A land sale deal for 100 acre will be announced soon, this is larger than expected (the management indicated a size of 50 acres previously)

Anyway, the timing coincides with a Trump win that has sparked fund withdrawal by foreign funds from Bursa in general, just unfortunate. Hopefully the relatively low foreign funds holding in IOIPG will not cause too much selling pressure on this stock.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

EPF was not the seller last Friday when IOIPG dropped 5 sen to RM2.26 on 2.5m traded volume. EPF net bought 323k shares of IOIPG last Friday, who then were the sellers?

It looks to me foreign funds might be the net sellers as EPF always counters the fund flows. Let's see whether EPF was the net seller on Monday.

For some reason, there are always plenty of sellers pressing the shares down. I suspect some fund managers are not happy with what happened at the EGM, and some are wary of weak results in Q1 and Q2 FY2025 quarters as IOICB may start to expense off the interest costs.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

https://www.hlib.com.my/published/article/gELqEi8dzS8uvWqw9TAJCWSCbORB2ahRz9sKQpFH8JW6JfodrikrHPe0OK1jQfcB2m9-n_Onk0Rq_UAMdu-QfBO9TvW5LzeCph9hiWEPvrM1

There has been no effect after HLIB raised the target price for IOIPG, as things happening at the company have not been able to give enough confidence to investors on whether earnings will grow as projected by HLIB.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

But I still have faith in this company which is at the crux of earnings explosion. We may need to withstand one or two quarters of weak earnings before it takes off in early 2025.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

It was indeed EPF who sold over 3 million shares of IOIPG on Monday, dragging down the share price substantially. That is unusual.

Posted by dragon328 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

https://www.edgeprop.my/content/1911107/ioi-properties-relaunches-putrajaya-marriott-hotel-after-rm100m-renovation

This will ensure the hotel division of IOIPG to turn around in FY2025

Posted by ks55 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

How can it be? Just make 1.26 sen per share? At least Plenitude is making 5.8 sen per share and giving 5 sen interim dividend.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

IOIPG delivered a weak set of results for Q1 FY2025, but it is broadly within expectations as it started to expense off interest costs at IOICB.

Net profit dropped below RM100m mark in the quarter due to: 1) higher than expected tax rate of 46%, 2) lower than expected property development sales.

Property development segment registered revenue of just RM354m in Q1 which is disappointing. It was mainly due to lack of new launches. HLIB report says that IOIPG launched projects of GDV RM569m, comprising 32 units of Marina View Residences and Aurelia, Sepang, and recorded sales of RM331m in the quarter.

For 2025, IOIPG is targeting over RM10 billion of new launches. If based on a 30% sales rate (58% actual in Q1), IOIPG will be able to achieve over RM3 billion of revenue for its property development segment, which will be double of that achieved in Q1 FY25.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

The share price is having a knee-jerk reaction to the weak result this morning by dropping double digit. We may need to hold it for a little longer for the company to unleash values in its massive assets.

I believe the downside to the share price is limited, as the previous low of RM1.80-2.00 should provide strong support in the near term. The worst is over for the company in terms of quarterly earnings.

HLIB continues to maintain a price target of RM4.05 while AffinHwang raises the price target to RM2.90.

https://www.hlib.com.my/published/article/1LTRWui6PVLBvoOs_Iuum4TyTbKKdt6bh6J3h8mVwPi9OtSEa7f4E-BZmVk_F1_SCQNt3Uw4haPTIqy-IZDVENh7pUnazwD4M4PLBWpqkt81

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

This kind of move...I don't really mind 😂 It's a trade. I have pocketed 6 cents ex-trading commission and restored to my original position while waiting. Agree absolutely with dragon's analysis, also grateful to the useful comments here like Kikilala letting us know the EGM vibes 👍👍👍

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Don't mind being don't mind, it's still disappointing view against missed opportunities. Like SUNWAY. Lesson: the high always goes higher

Posted by VincentTang > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Bought some IOIPG at 2.03. The worst is over for IOIPG.

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Guys don't forget, this kinda of result surely knee jerk sell-off. And when they annoounce DC land sale, also knee jerk buy-up. While waiting, we can trade around our position for dividends. Just becareful on the upside for a good counter - kena too many times - keep selling then no more shares to sell and either watch it fly or forced to buy back higher 😅

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I am a little surprised with the big drop in IOIPG share price today, even after a weak set of results. To me and many analysts, the weak result was well expected as many have already flagged earlier the start of interest expense at IOICB (though I had hoped for it to be delayed to Q3 FY25 after the final TOP).

Without the RM108m interest expense and the extra high taxation, IOIPG could have made close to RM180-200m profits a quarter. Of course, another culprit is the weak performance of its property development segment in Q1 with sales of only RM331m.

I am now less confident of a brisk sales of Marina View Residences which IOIPG has delayed the official launching to early 2025 from this Nov-Dec 2024 quarter. I think it is due to the high premium pricing of SGD5,000 psf that it is asking, the initial response to its soft launch of 32 units in Marina View Residences has not been well received. I am not sure how the management is going to boost sales at this "champion" asset in Singapore.

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Property investment (PI): IOICB’s occupancy improved to 68% and is expected to reach 70% by end-FY25. We understand IOICB only contributed revenue of RM55m for 1QFY25, which we estimate only reflected an about 35% effective occupancy due to rent-free periods, despite actual occupancy being 50% during that period, while full interest costs of RM109m were expensed. With higher occupancy now, the contribution from IOICB should improve. Management estimates breakeven of IOICB at 85% occupancy (we estimate management using assumption of 4.5-5% interest cost), but we believe 70-75% could suffice if rates fall to 3.5% (currently about 4%) in view of the interest rate cut theme in Singapore.

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

IOIPG has signed letters of intent with data centre players for the potential sale of two land parcels in Banting
and Kulai, each about 80 acres. We estimate these sales could generate proceeds of RM700m, likely can be recognised during FY26.

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

@dragon yes Marina View looks difficult. CDL almost sold out its Woodlands project while selling only 20% of its Havelock road project. SG prop market is now a tale of 2 cities. Suburbs do well, poreans buy. CBD challenging, 60% tax on foreigners, poreans don't buy because price will always be suppressed by low foreign demand.

IOIPG's style...they may be happy to keep inventory than sell cheap. Rich ppl thinking. Marina View could well be a drag whereas IOICB and W should be doing very well.

I would assume the worst for the residential project in Marina, while being optimistic on REITing IOICB and the Msia properties

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

IOIPG style - Marina View is guaranteed to look good and will be a trophy asset even for individual owners and an addition to the Marina skyline, but consistent with IOIPG style they will rather get stuck with it than price it to sell. How does that work towards share price - on balance likely negative than positive.

Posted by UncleFollower > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Their land cost was $1379psf ppr. Marina Bay Residences is selling between 2-3k psf, and Marina One 2-4kpsf currently depending on view. Poreans pay A LOT for the view. IOIPG intends to price it at around 100% premium over the closest projects 😅

Posted by turbochart > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I.OI PG vs 1.01 GG🤔

Posted by Eagle77 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Sell n run ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸

Posted by Eagle77 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Hancur ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸☠️☠️☠️

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

The observation below may be true that the rental income from IOICB should have been higher than RM55m if occupancy rate was at 50%. I calculate it to be RM83m at 50% occupancy rate at SGD13 psf for a quarter. The discrepancy could be due to some rent-free period for certain initial tenants, or due to some overhead costs that reduce the gross rental income.

Even based on current interest rate of 4.5%, IOICB should turn around when its occupancy rate achieves 70% based on my calculation: 1.29m sf x 70% x SGD13 psf x 3 mths x 3.30 = RM116 million of gross rental income, higher than the interest expense of RM109m in Q1.

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Property investment (PI): IOICB’s occupancy improved to 68% and is expected to reach 70% by end-FY25. We understand IOICB only contributed revenue of RM55m for 1QFY25, which we estimate only reflected an about 35% effective occupancy due to rent-free periods, despite actual occupancy being 50% during that period, while full interest costs of RM109m were expensed. With higher occupancy now, the contribution from IOICB should improve. Management estimates breakeven of IOICB at 85% occupancy (we estimate management using assumption of 4.5-5% interest cost), but we believe 70-75% could suffice if rates fall to 3.5% (currently about 4%) in view of the interest rate cut theme in Singapore.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

The figure of RM700m gross proceeds is largely inline with my calculations:
80 acres x 2 x 43,560sf x RM100 psf = RM697 million.

But it is just a letter of intent, and may not happen if the DC player is not able to secure enough power supply or water supply.


Posted by UncleFollower > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

IOIPG has signed letters of intent with data centre players for the potential sale of two land parcels in Banting
and Kulai, each about 80 acres. We estimate these sales could generate proceeds of RM700m, likely can be recognised during FY26.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

@UncleFollower, yes Marina View Residences will be a drag to IOIPG earnings if they are not willing to lower the selling price. I do not see any chance for them to sell any unit in Marina View Residences at SGD5,000 psf if there are still units on offer at SGD2k-4k in surrounding area. The only chance is to get their business partners to each buy one or two units, but it will never get to even 10% sales of the 668 units on offer.

Posted by UncleFollower > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Their land cost was $1379psf ppr. Marina Bay Residences is selling between 2-3k psf, and Marina One 2-4kpsf currently depending on view. Poreans pay A LOT for the view. IOIPG intends to price it at around 100% premium over the closest projects 😅

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

But as you said, I am placing more hope on IOICB ramping up the occupancy rate to over 90% by end June 2025 then IOIPG will be able to inject it into a REIT. It will get back at least SGD2.0 billion of cash to pare down the borrowings at IOICB to SGD1.0 billion or below, then the group will be on a much stronger footing.

Besides this, I am also optimistic of the industrial park segment performance in 2025. I read that they have managed to secure few parcels of industrial lots sale at its IOI Industrial Park Banting in just few weeks of launch. I am also optimistic of the 80 acre land sale to a DC player in its Industrial Park at Iskandar.

Posted by Jesse1314 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

There is report / news that Johor is not approving DC projects due to constraint in resources.

I guess any potential land deals for DC will make purchasers think twice. Especially those SPA that is yet to complete.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Once IOICB is REITed, the group borrowings will get reduced by SGD2.0 billion and hence interest expenses reduced by RM268 million a year. If IOIPG lists up 50% stakes of IOICB, it will book in higher profit of RM135 million a year purely from savings in interest expenses. If we include much less depreciation charge (assuming SGD60m a year) of IOICB and no tax (assuming tax saving of SGD10m a year) with the REIT structure, IOIPG will book in extra profit of SGD70m/2 or RM230m/2 a year to bring the total earnings contribution from IOICB REIT to RM250 million a year for its 50% stakes.

And the group net gearing will be reduced to 0.4x from currently 0.73x, to be inline with peers. That will be the game changer.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

@Jesse1314, that is a valid concern. I believe the DC player only signed a letter of intent, and not an outright sale because of the uncertainties around power supply and other authority approvals. But I am confident that they should be able to seal the deal in 2025 and resolve the other constraints for the DC player.


Posted by Jesse1314 > 7 minutes ago | Report Abuse

There is report / news that Johor is not approving DC projects due to constraint in resources.

I guess any potential land deals for DC will make purchasers think twice. Especially those SPA that is yet to complete.

Posted by dragon328 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

From the tone of the management at briefing, it sounds to me that setting up a commercial REIT in Malaysia may come even earlier than the Singapore REIT for IOICB which will still need time for its occupancy rate to ramp up to 90% or above.

On the other hand, IOI City Mall is already ready for injection into a REIT, as Phase 1 has been in operations since November 2014 and Phase 2 was opened in August 2022. The occupancy rate at IOI City Mall has surpassed 96%, and the group is planning for Phase 3. IOIPG could package IOI City Mall Phase 1 & 2, together with IOI Mall Puchong and IOI Mall Kulai in an initial setting up of the REIT almost immediately, though it may get higher valuation after IOI City Mall Phase 2 goes through one round of rental renewal in August 2025 (after 3 years of operations). The listing of these 3 malls could fetch a valuation of over RM6.5 billion.

Then after the completion of the acquisition of Tropicana Gardens Mall in Q1 2025, and once the occupancy rate at TGM ramps up from the currently 76% to over 90%, this mall can then be injected into the REIT. This mall could fetch a valuation of over RM1.0 billion (compared to the acquisition cost of RM680m by IOIPG).

If needed, the commercial REIT could be expanded by injecting the matured office towers of IOIPG, which could fetch another RM2 billion or so.

The 5,000-room-strong hotel arms of IOIPG would be another prime assets for injecting into a hospitality REIT worth some RM2.0-2.5 billion.

Posted by bullrun2025 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328, rm2 now. What is ur strategy ?

Posted by stevenckheng > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

wow banker price target all different

Posted by dragon328 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

@bullrun2025, I cannot do much besides just holding onto what I have.

My average entry cost is about RM2.20, same level as foreign funds who bought in Mar-June 2024. So I am not worried of any large scale selling by funds below RM2.00. I still see good support at RM1.80-2.00 level.

As the prospects of IOIPG are still very good in 2025, I see most funds will hold on for medium to long term investments.

No doubt, there are some funds who are disappointed with the temporary earnings lull of IOIPG in this quarter and next. They are selling now, but the falling share price should attract other funds to come in for longer term investment.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

@dragon more like 2.15 don't forget 5c dividend 😃

And you can gear up your position 1:1 at this level. Margin call is extremely unlikely, 1:1 we will have about 30% buffer

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

We need sentiment to turn again for property and construction counters. On the ground, it's already turning. Msia property is now better than before. For shares to turn we need both PMX's Johor plans + President Trump shouting low rates even tho he's already shouting low rates.

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Counting shareholding spread almost NEVER works in the short term. So often we will be holding on to a downtrending stock which is tightly held by controlling + instituitional shareholders, and then wonder how come it is falling like a rock? Who is selling?

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

But very often, it works out well in the long term. The big guys are either tolerating the steep fall or benefitting from it. When the time comes it just goes up more easily than a counter w loosely controlled shareholdings.

Posted by hng33 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

bought IOI property at 1.98

Posted by hng33 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

He disagrees with suggestions that IOI Central Boulevard Towers is too new to be included in a REIT. Some REIT managers figure they need to let a particular asset “stabilise” first - with at least one leasing cycle of three years- before selling the asset into a REIT. Not so from Lee’s perspective. “If I can lock in at $15, I am happy to leave something behind on the table for other investors,” says Lee, referring to the rental rates and upside he is projecting from leasing out IOI Central Boulevard Towers.

Besides the office REIT, Lee is potentially securitising some of the mall and hospitality assets in Malaysia too. As for IOI Properties itself, Lee will keep its primary listing in Malaysia.

Remark: Singapore REITS may come sooner than Msia REITS

Posted by hng33 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone: The countdown begins
The JS-SEZ will span across six districts – Johor Bahru, Iskandar Puteri, Pasir Gudang, Pontian, Kulai and Kota Tinggi.
https://www.britcham.org.sg/news/johor-singapore-special-economic-zone-countdown-begins

Posted by hng33 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Asked if there will be any data centres at its industrial parks, Teh said the group has received “quite a few enquiries” from data centre players for its industrial parks in Banting and Iskandar Malaysia.

“Hopefully we can have some good news in the next one or two months,” he added.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726505

Posted by dragon328 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

@hng33, I did read the comment given by some bankers to IOIPG re the REIT listing of IOICB. tend to agree with Mr. Lee's argument that it should be listed if they can get rental rate of S$15 psf. I would go a step further, just go for the listing once occupancy rate achieves 95%! NO need to wait till rental rate goes up to S$15 psf.
You need to leave some upside to investors who buy into the REIT. And the upside will come when IOICB revises up the rental rate 2 years later.


Posted by hng33 > 31 minutes ago | Report Abuse

He disagrees with suggestions that IOI Central Boulevard Towers is too new to be included in a REIT. Some REIT managers figure they need to let a particular asset “stabilise” first - with at least one leasing cycle of three years- before selling the asset into a REIT. Not so from Lee’s perspective. “If I can lock in at $15, I am happy to leave something behind on the table for other investors,” says Lee, referring to the rental rates and upside he is projecting from leasing out IOI Central Boulevard Towers.

Besides the office REIT, Lee is potentially securitising some of the mall and hospitality assets in Malaysia too. As for IOI Properties itself, Lee will keep its primary listing in Malaysia.

Remark: Singapore REITS may come sooner than Msia REITS

Posted by hng33 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

IOI property rush to list Singapore REITS as it will increase IOI property trademark in Singapore market, pave way for subsequent new properties launched. In additional, listing REITS before mature can attract more retail and institutional fund to subscribe its REITs as it give investor higher future upside rental rate potential

Despite opt REITS listing to pare down group borrowing cost. if IOI properties opt to retain stake under 50%, IOI properties can decoupling Central Boulevard Towers debt level entirely under REITS, free up group gearing

Posted by ValueInvestor888 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

time to bottom fish...

Posted by hng33 > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Other factors lead IOI property to list Singapore REITS is 0% tax free status for all income as long 90% profit distributed compared to corporate tax 17%. Likewise, Malaysia REITS also enjoy tax exempted compare to group tax at 24% level.

Posted by hng33 > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

The Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) is a joint initiative between Malaysia and Singapore to increase economic connectivity and business growth in the region:

Goal:
1. To improve the cross-border movement of people and goods.

2. Location: Spanning six districts in southern Johor, including Johor Bahru, Iskandar Puteri, Pasir Gudang, Pontian, Kulai, and Kota Tinggi.

3. Focus industries: Logistics, financial and business services, tourism, food security, education, healthcare, the digital economy, energy, and manufacturing.

4. Incentives: Special tax arrangements, passport-free clearance, training incentives, and joint events promotions.

5. Benefits: The JS-SEZ is expected to attract foreign direct investment, encourage technology transfer, and stimulate growth across various industries.

Posted by hng33 > 4 hours ago | Report Abuse

https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=ioi+boulevard+singapore&&mid=22D3FF96AD872811DDB522D3FF96AD872811DDB5&&mcid=54A37455E6964859A2570BFCE002FE67&FORM=VRDGAR

Posted by hng33 > 1 hour ago | Report Abuse

Monthly rental rates at IOI Central Boulevard Towers are between $14 and $15 psf. Blue-chip tenants such as Amazon and Morgan Stanley have already pre-leased 40% of the 1.26 million sq ft premium Grade-A office space at IOI Central Boulevard Towers.

In July 2022, Amazon signed up for 369,000 sq ft of space, while in June 2023, Morgan Stanley was said to be relocating from Capital Square and taking up between 90,000 and 100,000 sq ft across five floors in the new office blocks.