@dragon328 ,
Following your 5-baggers in YTL and YTL Power, looks like your 5-baggers for IOIPG will come sooner than you thought??

The TA is also very bullish. Something coming up?

@dragon328; @OTB,
Thank you

@dragon328; @OTB,
With Oracle , OCI together with Nvidia now interested to rent the AI data centers from YTLP, I am assuming the earnings for YTLP for FY2025 and 2026 could be explosive.
Do you have any estimated forecast of their FY2025 and FY 2026 EPS ?
TQ

@ dragon 328
TQVM

OTB profit projection;---
"Based on my earnings projection and if I apply a PER of 12x and 15x, I expect YTL Power shares to trade up to the below prices.
2024 - EPS of 42 sen x 12-15 = RM5.04 - RM6.30
2025 - EPS of 50 sen x 12-15 = RM6.00 - RM7.50
2026 - EPS of 60 sen x 12-15 = RM7.20 - RM9.00 "
TQ OTB.

@dragon328, Is your profit projection similar with that of OTB ? TQ

Hopefully it is not dead cat bounce today.

@OTB,
TQ for your insight.

@OTB,
I believe you bought quite a bit of Notion before the crash. what is your advice to your followers who are still holding the stock at the current price of 89 sen ? Has it become some kind of junk stock to be sold now?? TQ

OTB posted a week a go:---
"The target price set by HLIB and Nomura is 3.28 and 3.51 respectively.
According to the management, FY 2025 result will be better than FY 2024.
The last quarter result, EPS is 3.9 sen.
Assuming EPS for FY 2025 is 4.0 x 4 = 16.0 sen, at a PER=20, the target price at 3.20 is achievable."

Be patient, the management are genuine business people I gather. HLB and Normura has done a detailed research, so I believe this stock will come back.

Dragon 328 is doing a great job here. He recommended you to buy at 70 sen but you did not do so. He is still positive about YTLP from the fundamental prospective which I agree.
OTB also like YTLP but he is also more conscious of the TA aspect. Nothing wrong with that. For now if the price is below 200 day SMA he would not touch. Am I right OTB ?

Stock Fundamental always prevail. A friend of mine upon advised from his TA sifu sold all his holdings in YTLP today as the cut loss price has been triggered. Pity him. As the saying goes, just stick to fundamental, charts can be very very misleading !

YTLp is like wounded tiger. If you have sold because it triggered your cut loss level, you may get it back at lower prices. If you decide to hold it will become a true tiger

Can TA expert confirm that the major support has been broken ? The up trend has just turn down trend?

technically cut loss level triggered?

I have been away and back today to note that some of the posts by OTB and dragon328 have been removed yesterday. WHY ?
To be honest, I have benefited from their posts. I may not agree with some of the counters OTB posted but did he lie? NO. That is his opinion based on info he had, and one needs to think further before you follow.

I hope OTB and dragon328 will continue with your post. tq

OTB
A good fundamental stock.
Unfortunately there is no coverage on this stock from any broker in town.
Very few investors know this stock.
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@OTB, This stock is recommended by Icapital when it was 85sen. I believe he is still calling a buy at current price. Its day will come I believe.

@dragon, TQ

@dragon328, Am I right to say that chartwise, the counter is now pretty bearish if not shitty. The counter is expected to trend lower/ side way in the short term before it gets better?? yes, the fundamental is still intact. Perhaps if one takes a 2-3 year time horizon, like you said, will see your return double or more.

Mr OTB, TQ for your insight.

Mr OTB, Thank you for the analysis.
If it fail to break 5.44 in the next 10 trading days, technically, does that mean it will be in a down trend for much longer? According to TA ?? TQ

super good Qtr results anticipated

@freedomfund, thank you for your "balanced view".
My simple calculation of YTLP fair value is to assigned a PE of 15 to the est EPS of 40sen for the FY June 2024. That give me a fair value of RM6. For FY 2025 and 2026 , you will have income from DC as well. The income may not be able to assess with certainty but it will be surprise on the upside and possible hugh.
I would go along with dragon328 analysis that the upside is still hugh. YTLP at RM5 now is by no means overvalued.

Every stock has its day. Insas could be next.

I was thinking of taking profit after the qtr results is out, but now you have a research house calling RM7.30 even without waiting for the qtr result. Perhaps I should hang on.

@OTB "I am just sharing my knowledge here, I am not promoting Yinson here.
I own zero share of Yinson."

Mr OTB, you sold all your Yinson? News to me. I thought you might keep until 2026 to reap hugh returns.

If all goes well, the negative free cash flow could turn positive free cash flow in 2026.
Yinson is like a company making hugh profit but has no money. sad.

When most of the counters in Bursa are bullish now, you have the funny feeling that Yinson is going to be listless for the rest of the year. The chart has been shitty for a long time. Wait and wait and wait. Perhaps a few more qtrs of good result might change people's perception.

When a sifu is promoting a stock for 2 years and yet claim only to have a small holding, I find it does not jive. Nothing wrong to say that one has a large holding in yinson and waiting patiently for it to take off.

Perhaps the investors perceived Yinson as a high risk stock even if it is trading at a very low PE. Even its sukuk has to be done at such a hugh premium. Potential investors might want to wait a few more qtr to be sure to put their money in.

Israel will very likely attack Iran in the coming days / weeks. Their armed forces chief vowed so. Do we sell today following a rebound or hold for a while ? Its anyone guess whether it will fall further.
However the moment Israel strike Iran, the market will probably take another hit as well.
Perhaps it make sense to take profit by reducing half my holding and keep the balance for another 6 months.

How to go up when only EPF is doing trading? TA also bad. Opportunities lost with capital park here.
Perhaps better to cut now and come back when the TA improve ??

Why are people so hung up about the daily price movement of YTLP ? Perhaps must be the day traders? If you go for the fundamentals of this gem, come back in 6 - 9 months and you will be smiling from cheek to cheek. no?

@ OTB, Tq for your explanation.
Assuming you use EBITDA margin of 50%, you PAT figure cannot be just 'PAT = RM 2.335 billion (Assume 28% tax)" n Here you are treating the interests, depreciation / amortisation as zero ? can't be right? am I wrong? TQ

@OTB, Tq for your calculation.
May I know on what basis you assume EDITDA margin of 50% ?just a wild guess? TQ

@dragon328, TQ.

@dragon328
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"Mr. OTB, I need to qualify my following projection that I am not an IT or AI expert but carry out the calculations just from the standpoint of a financial analyst.

I will use the projected capex for the YTL Power's planned 100MW AI data centre project to estimate the number of Nvidia GPUs required. Using the estimated capex figure of US$3.0 billion from CIMB analyst and the announced RM20 billion investment figure from PMX, and taking the expected price tag of US$40,000-45,000 per B200 GPU, I estimate that the 100MW AI data centre will require about:
US$3.0bn/US$40-45k = 70,000 GPUs to
RM20bn/US$40-45k = 100,000 GPUs

If I use CIMB analyst's figure for GPU rental rate of US$2.50/hour (CoreWeave averaged at US$2.23/hr, Lambda at US$2.49/hr and Fluidstack at US$2.89/hr), and assuming 90% usage rate, the 100MW AI data centre with 70,000 GPUs may generate revenue of:

70,000 x US$2.50/hr x 8760 x 90% = US$1.38 billion a year
=========================================================================

I assume that Your estimated Revenue of US$1.38 Billion a year will be fully reflected in FY 30.6.2026?
Are you able to guesstimate the PAT from the US1.38 billion revenue for FY2026?
TQVM

@OTB, Your portfolio in Yinson is a small one? I thought Yinson is your No.1 stock in 2023? Meaning you have reduced your shareholdings in Yinson ?

Evil Statement? hardly. Know your risk profile when investing. Want zero risk? put all in FD.
Want calculated risk ? YTLP. Today [ 22.3.2024] price RM3.90 . My 12 months TP RM6. ; 24 months TP RM7.50
Too far fetch? Dont buy. No one force you to buy. Look before you leap, think before you buy !

“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those timid spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”

Looks like one should invest 100% in this counter?

@Permutation, I am not sure if the technical chart reading on YTLP given to you was indeed from iCap Tan Teng Boo. Recently there have been lots of scam groups pretending to be the investment gurus such as Tan Teng Boo, Cold Eye or Koon YY, advertising online to get people into their chat group by sharing fake investment advice. Just beware.
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@Dragon328, You are probably right.
OTB an expert in charting has a different take on it from his post.

Thank You OTB.

@OTB,
I would be happy if your TA readings is correct.
However I am rather confused when a friend show me Icapital [ Tan Teng Boo] chart on YTL Power dated 15.3.2024
It stated that YTL power bull run has ended. It is marked by the formation of a triple top reversal pattern. Its daily DMI has shape a bearish cross over. Its daily MACD is bearish. Is he talking about different thing??

@dragon328, Thank you

@Dragon328,
Is it realistic to project the EPS for FY 30.6.2025 to be about 50sen?

TA expert said the triple top reversal pattern has formed, what ever that means? is it right? does that means the correction has a long way to go?

There are people relying on honest analysis here to invest. People telling lies here will get bad karma.

Low PE of bout 5 times, deliver healthy profit for past 6 years, high NTA of around RM3.50. Low paid up. very easy to push?

Mr OTB ,
The loans for the FPSO projects will still belong to Yinson even after they find oil. Am I right?
Even though the revenue received from charter service is utilised to service the loan; Ultimately Yinson is still responsible to pay the loan ?

Mr OTB, Thank you. I agree good fundamental stock will shine eventually. Even YTLP was hovering at 70 sen for a while until the fund managers wake up.

Mr OTB, would you recommend a buy on Yinson now ? Does it meet your investment criteria ?

The TA of Yinson is very bad now, am I wrong?