Posted by dragon328 > 2024-08-11 14:09 | Report Abuse

Furthermore, when Shenton House is redeveloped and tenanted out, potential gross rental income may be about 503,000 sf x 80% NLA x SGD14.00 psf x 12 months = SGD68 million a year. At the same valuation of 3%-4% yield, Shenton House may be valued at SGD1.7b – SGD2.2b. Injecting Shenton House into the Singapore REIT would bring in cash proceeds of SGD850 million to SGD1.1 billion to IOIPG. This would bring down the Group’s net gearing ratio from 77% (assuming IOICB valued at SGD5.0b) further to 63%. If IOICB is revalued to SGD6.0 billion, then net gearing will fall further to 56%.

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2024-08-11 21:57 | Report Abuse

Yes dragon328, these are the likely scenarios on table now

And thanks to HLB for weekend publication, things are positive for coming 10-12 trading days until the next QR release with dividend payout before Shelton EGM

Posted by raymondroy > 2024-08-12 00:13 | Report Abuse

i guess ioipg will have little option than to accept the offer to take up shenton house deal, as otherwise CEO will be in an awkward position of being in conflict of interest with his day to day job, besides im not sure his private company will have the muscle to complete the job anyway (wonder how he won the deal in the first place?) .... wonder also if the handover will need approval from the original tenderer? although no doubt.... ioipg is a strengthened purchaser with the means of completing the job ..... so all thats starts well ends well I guess :-)

from earnings perspective next announcement will be an uphill task of meeting with YoY results of 235m profit.... and surely the FY2024 will not be able to beat FY2023 results.... gotta beware of this .... happy hunting

Posted by dragon328 > 2024-08-12 08:49 | Report Abuse

@raymondroy, I beg to differ on IOIPG's upcoming Q4 FY2024 result. IOIPG registered a headline net profit of RM235m in Q4 FY2023 due to some extraordinary gain of RM128m, striping out the EI, core net profit for Q4 FY23 was RM108 million.

I believe IOIPG's upcoming Q4 FY2024 will beat last year result in terms of headline profits as well as core net profit.

Posted by myloh123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328, what is the impact on ioipg if ioi reits is formed?

Posted by myloh123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

This is a gem stock with nta rm 4 n low pe ratio of 14....im willing to hold long term.

Posted by myloh123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Epf is buying big lately in this counter...something is cooking?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@myloh123, I have detailed the benefits and impact on IOIPG should it set up a REIT to house its assets in 3 categories:
1) first a commercial REIT in Singapore to house its prime office towers IOI Central Boulevard, then at later stage inject Shenton House into this REIT - total valuation over SGD5.0 billion for IOICB and SGD2.0 billion for Shenton House

2) a commercial REIT in Malaysia to house all its office towers and shopping malls, with IOI City Mall being the biggest asset, together with IOI Mall Puchong and the recently acquired Tropicana Gardens Mall - total valuation may be over RM6.0 billion

3) a hospitality REIT in Malaysia to house all its hotels - total valuation over RM2.0 billion

Please refer to my earlier article on IOIPG for more details

Posted by myloh123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Ok tqvm🙏

Posted by VincentTang > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Excellent qr. Limit up limit up...

Posted by kkl123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

PE 5. now
Up to PE 10. Is fair price
RM 4

Posted by bullvestor > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Why 1b profit

Posted by myloh123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

😱

Posted by myloh123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Txs dragon328...perfect timing

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

And now decline Shenton acquisition

Means quicker move into reit?
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/724672

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The decline of Shenton House proposal is a good deed by IOIPG management and board of directors. The explanation given is just right as it would increase IOIPG gearing further to 0.89x.

Recall that IOIPG share price suffered heavy selling in the few days before the Shenton House proposal was announced, the share price dropped from RM2.50 level to RM2.00 level. Now that the proposal is rejected, the share price should at least climb back to RM2.50 level.

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Yeah this brings the numbers back to required level; next is to push for REIT and lift further to 2.90-3.10

Posted by sg999 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

there is no banker control ioipg, beware on tmr might open high close low again, whole property sector is sinking now.

Posted by Agjl > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Excluding fair value, PBT ard 84m. M i right?

Posted by stockpicker888 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hi Dragon328, underlying PBT of the quarter is almost halfed YOY, mainly due to greater write-offs and depreciation , but I do see property segments improved YOY (however QOQ decreased by around 20mil/9%) . What do you think of this quarter’s performance looking purely at the core of the business?

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@Agjl, excluding the revaluation gains and impairments, the underlying PBT is RM87.3 million as stated in the report. But in the hotel segment, there was additionally some higher depreciation and write-off of hotel assets totalling RM96.7m, if I exclude the write-off of hotel assets, I estimate the underlying PBT would have been around RM170 million.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@stockpicker888, as explained above, there was some hotel asset write-off in the hospitality segment in Q4 FY2024, which I suspect was related to old assets at the recently acquired W Hotel KL. I would treat it as one-off and estimate it to be around RM80m.
So I would put the core PBT of Q4 FY2024 to be around RM170m which would be some 60% higher than last year Q4.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Against Q3 FY2024, Q4 core earnings would have been higher as well. Recall that in Q3 Fy2024, the earnings were boosted by a land sale amounting to RM211 million.

Posted by stockpicker888 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328 you're absolutely right, while waiting for your response, my doubt has been clarified via looking back at Q3 report. Hence, core property business + hotel/mall segments are generally improving YOY and QOQ basis. Coupled with the rejection to take over Shenton House, hopefully, investors would finally see the intrinsic value of this gem. Next up, I'm anticipating the further reveal of the the Johor-SG SEZ deal, to be the next catalyst of its share price. Fingers crossed , and happy investing to all.

Posted by Agjl > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Sg999….i think u might be right. Today open high and close low for the day… sold tis morning ard 2.05 hope to buy back later.. the company is good but sentiments are not so favorable at the moment. Thus i sold. Happy hunting. Cheers!

Posted by Agjl > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Dragon…thanks for the clarifications. Cheers!

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/dragon328/2024-08-29-story-h-153177383-IOIPG_The_Dawn_of_Explosive_Earnings_Growth

My analysis of IOIPG Q4 result as above for your leisure read. It is good for long term investment.

Posted by teochaimou > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://www.nst.com.my/property/2024/08/1098624/ioi-properties-may-revisit-shenton-house-acquisition-market-insiders

Posted by raymondroy > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

missed out on this development..... rejection of CEO's offer on shenton house, but surprisingly IOIPG has agreed to be the exclusive project manager and some extend developer as well as first rights of refusal on the purchase.... interesting'

https://www.nst.com.my/business/corporate/2024/08/1097980/ioi-properties-rejects-ceo-lees-offer-buy-shenton-house-will

Posted by Eagle77 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Recession is coming, Mpox also coming ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸TP 1.50 below ☠️

Posted by Eagle77 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Fake buy call by the IB just look at YTL today by call RM6-7 but plunging nonstop till 3.70 ⬇️⬇️⬇️🩸🩸🩸

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

After the expiry of a call warrant last Friday, IOIPG can enjoy steady rise now.

With the Shenton House proposal rejected, IOIPG should be gradually going back to RM2.50 level.

Posted by bullrun2025 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@dragon328, below rm2 now

Posted by Nadayu > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

HSR coming soon making all the property stock rebound

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Now high gearing is no longer an issue with analysts, who now spell fears on high interest expenses at IOICB that will start to kick in from Q1 FY2025. I think there sell-side analysts have overblown the issue on high interest expense, just like they overblew the issue of high gearing before.

Nonetheless, the overall market sentiment is weak with US stock markets dropping big last week. Yet foreign funds still net bought hundreds of million ringgit worth of equities in Bursa last week. The average cost of entry into IOIPG by foreign funds is slightly above RM2.00, so at current prices below RM2.00 I do not think many foreign funds will sell.

Some local funds are not yet buying in IOIPG as its net gearing is higher than 50% hence is classified as non syariah compliant, but at least we see EPF still accumulating IOIPG in past few weeks.

When foreign funds and local funds are not buying, local retailers tend to sell to cut loss as their holding power is weak.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

We may need to wait for 1 or 2 more quarters before we can see meaningful rebounds in the share price of IOIPG, as the company needs to ride through Q1 and Q2 FY2025 when IOICB is expected to incur some losses due to interest expenses kicking in and tenancy remains at 50%.

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

However, I do not discount the possibility of IOIPG share price rebounding earlier if we can see some good news coming up in coming weeks:

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

- IOICB secures more tenants beyond the current 50%

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

- US Fed lowers fund rates by over 25 bps in its September meeting, or cut by 100 bps before end of 2024

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

- any land sale in Johor
- a sooner turnaround in its hotel business
- potential setting up of a commercial REIT to house its shopping malls and office towers in Malaysia

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

or the Marina View Residences project receives better than expected responses after launch in September

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Hmm need to hold for min 6-7 months

Unless got tailwinds and make the counter enticing again

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/726505

A positive move by IOIPG, the new industrial park segment may be the next catalyst to propel the company higher in coming 2-3 years

Posted by kkl123 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

PE 5 now
I think can up to Rm3 by end oct24

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

PE 5, really undervalued by two times

Really need to add some spice to brew the numbers

Posted by Kikilala3188 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

Possible to land at 2.20 by end of this week? Seeing some upward consistency

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

2.2 is not a problem. But if you're eyeing 2.2 to sell might as well sell now and speculate somewhere else. Because this one you should be patient and wait for them to announce the game plan

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

IOIPG has been picking up smallish 2nd 3rd tier properties in Msia...this coincides w a bright outlook in Msia property sector. However, the game is the disposal to REIT. They have a huge Singapore exposure, top tier properties. Bundle it with the 3rd tier malaysia properties add back top tier IOI City Mall, this will be a huge blue chip REIT. What will IOIPG share price be by then?

Posted by UncleFollower > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

The game for the low tier properties is to buy it below value and then enhance it a little, inject to REIT at a huge premium. Senior Lee taught his youngest son well

Posted by dragon328 > 2 months ago | Report Abuse

@UncleFollower, you are likely right to point out the game plan of IOIPG, which all sounds well to me. This is evidenced from the recent purchases of W Hotel KL, Langkawi land for a hotel resort development and Tropicana City Mall, all purchased at below book value especially the last one Tropicana City Mall at almost 30% discount to book.

I expect IOIPG to turn around the business and grow them into steady cash cows then inject into REITs. When they inject the matured IOI City Mall, IOI Mall Puchong and this Tropicana City Mall into a commercial REIT in Malaysia at say dividend yield of 5.5%, the potential value of the commercial REIT may be over RM7.0 billion.

IOIPG may inject its hotels into a hospitality REIT separately when the hotels business turns around and yields steady cashflows, once the management estimated that its hotel assets would be worth some RM2.5 billion.