I predict Red Sena will fail. Reasons: 1) Market is very bullish in Malaysia & around the world. Hard to find QA at fair price. Any business which want to exit, want to sell at a huge premium! 2) Looking at how Reach Energy performed after a successful QA (despite buying an asset at the very bottom of crude oil price), everybody will REJECT any QA (not matter how good it is). 3) Credit Suisse has come in as spoiler. To pass the QA, management need to buyout Credit Suisse at a premium. This will be harder too considering MTD is suffering losses from buying out Credit Suisse in Reach Energy. No fund will want to be the white knight after seeing what happened in Reach Energy. 4) Red Sena management team consists of very rich people. Even if no QA or fail, it doesn't affect them. They are not hungry for QA. If Red Sena fail, they still make from management fees. They lose nothing!
the target to announce is on Feb 2018. then they need 6 months to prepare the factory. the deadline is on Dec 2018. so the best date to announce is on Feb 2018.
if reach warrant is any guide to pricing rsena warrant ,reach-w at 90 %premium will translate to rsena-w 1.90x0.46-0.50 =0.374 when the company announce a QA
Please check the prospectus...in order to get approval they need only 75% support and owner cant sell till achieved 107mil accumulated profit. Can someone confirm this information? Thank you.
Rio2814 is right.The company needs a QA that can generate net profit of 107m over 3 years or 35.6m per year otherwise promoters shares remain in moratorium.the profit threshold is, I believe, needed to sustain a share price of over 0.50 so there is no need for yield seekers to object to get their refund-they can sell into the market and get money on t+3.
Rio2814, if what you heard is true, the QA would likely be a sparkler and the warrant is likely to follow the trend of Reach-wa and soar as conversion price at 0.50 is within reach.
Reach was able to get its QA acq passed despite yield seekers exceeding 0ver 80% of its issued capital(2016 annual report).RSENA just have 62% . and it is not oil n gas but food & beverage where the average market PER is btw 10-15 times.The management is looking for a quality QA where it could sustain a share price of above 50c
Yield investor need 25%++ to block the management. The tough part is not the QA approval. They need to submit a business that contribute 107mil profit in 3years. Which is good for us.
Rio 284, u are so right.More precisely,it is majority in number of voters present at EGM and at least 75% in value of shares present n voting,not such a high bar.The bulk of s/hders who are retail holders would not vote against if the sum of mother share and warrant are above the IPO price of 50c as there is attraction of in-the-money warrant spiking up because the exercise price is just 50c.So what is the good news you hear going to the SC
The company says it is prepared to pay a premium to buy a quality QA which is a strong signal they are going to propose a QA for approval.The cash may not be enough in which case it might involve some shares which the vendor may actually prefer in order to have a continuing interest in its business.It may be a win-win situation as the vendors can get their just rewards and the company gets a high growth business certain to get approval with share price for mother and warrant going up.
Posted by speakup > Oct 27, 2017 10:20 AM | Report Abuse
I predict Red Sena will fail. Reasons: 1) Market is very bullish in Malaysia & around the world. Hard to find QA at fair price. Any business which want to exit, want to sell at a huge premium! 2) Looking at how Reach Energy performed after a successful QA (despite buying an asset at the very bottom of crude oil price), everybody will REJECT any QA (not matter how good it is). 3) Credit Suisse has come in as spoiler. To pass the QA, management need to buyout Credit Suisse at a premium. This will be harder too considering MTD is suffering losses from buying out Credit Suisse in Reach Energy. No fund will want to be the white knight after seeing what happened in Reach Energy. 4) Red Sena management team consists of very rich people. Even if no QA or fail, it doesn't affect them. They are not hungry for QA. If Red Sena fail, they still make from management fees. They lose nothing!
making investment decision on wrong or misleading information can be costly like using previous IPO case.The promoters paid a average of 7.5c for their shares with free warrant which multiplied 6x-10x upon the succes of QA.There is only huge gain.Pending the QA ,the management of RSena is receiving their wages from their own money.They would be wasting much time,effort and opportunity cost if the QA is not done
As for Rsena, the subscription cost for the promoters is 5c a share.Given such a low entry cost, they would likely work extra hard to get a good quality QA which given the high multiple for food and beverage business would be worthwhile waiting.
By comparing with SEM,BISON and BJF,the stock which has the the closest metrics is SEM with 1233 million shares and a TTM of 40m .Its share price of 1.50 gives it a PER of 47x.Would RSENA be able to sew up QA and command such a metric.With a conversion price of 0.50, the warrant could be as high as 1.00 just to be at parity.
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Posted by Kareemabduljabbar > 2017-07-17 13:48 | Report Abuse
How you calculate 48 cts ?