Good company but bad operator, don’t expect any movement anytime soon….every spike followed by a sell down… don’t follow operator who love to con people’s money
Hi @teareader818 Based on production volume, biological assets (no. of milking cows), milk processing capacity (14.4mil litres), Kulim-JV of RM41 mil translating to 2,000-3,000 milking cows (cost per milking cow AUD3,000 or RM10,000) assuming RM10 mil is allocated for farm facilities and infrastructure, Rhone Ma is indeed grossly undervalued
Note Farm Fresh will IPO at a historical FYE 31 March 2021 of PE=36x* without taking into account the inevitable rise in share price (fresh milk is after all the highest quality nutrition as nature intended and like healthcare, nutrition standards only go one way, with the per capita consumption in developed countries at least 5-10 times higher than developing countries) *2.5 bil market cap / 69 mil adjusted net profit (one off tax)
teareader818 @ Got_Milk, if Farm Fresh is priced at 1.35, is Rhonema undervalued?
Hi teareader818, there are findings which I may or may not release as accumulation is ongoing and the proposition for Rhone Ma becomes more compelling as the Farm Fresh IPO progresses...
In the simplest terms, 1) at the IPO price of RM1.35 you are paying Farm Fresh RM2.5 bil for the amount of X milking cows it has and Y processing capacity (and compare this with Rhone Ma) 2) Out of the large offering of RM1bil in the IPO, RM700 mil will go to the promoters, with only RM300mil to be utilised by Farm Fresh, of which only RM200mil will be used for capacity expansion. In comparison, the Kulim JV has a cost of RM41 mil and Rhone Ma's milk processing plant will cost RM7.5mil, for a total cost of close to RM50mil. Comparing the capex of Farm Fresh of RM200mil vs Rhone Ma of RM50mil, should give you an indication of the scale and growth potential of Rhone Ma's dairy segment (note: fresh milk demand far exceeds supply)
Most importantly, you get all of this paying only RM140mil for Rhone Ma vs RM2.5bil for Farm Fresh (note: Kulim is backed by JCorp, both of which are orders of magnitude larger than Farm Fresh). Hope this helps, cheers
@ Got_Milk, thanks for the additional info and I commend you for being resourceful in your research. What I find puzzling is that with the ongoing accumulation, the price of the share is moving in the opposite direction, down rather than up.
Referring to the estimates on the 2000-3000 number of milking cows for the Kulim JV of RM41 mil, after assuming RM10 mil is used for the farm facilities, about RM30 mil would be available while AUD $3000 would get you the best quality pure breed Holstein milking cow (ie producing cow, as opposed to heifers or bulls). Those who attended Farm Fresh's analyst briefing 28/2 will be able to confirm the RM10k per dairy cow figure
Rhonema is not a dairy company ffs. It sells animal health products to veterinarians and clinics. Omg y'all can't even do basic research. It is not the company's main business segment
Some Facebook bloggers promoted this stock heavily and suddenly a wave of retail investors piled onto this stock. Institutions refuse to buy this stock now
Does not make investment sense. Some Facebook bloggers promoted this stock heavily and suddenly a wave of retail investors piled onto this stock. Institutions refuse to buy this stock now
Rhone Ma has raised RM13.46mil from its private placement which will be used for the construction of a 14.4mil litre per annum milk processing plant
The Rhone Ma Kulim JV of RM41mil will have a production of 11 million litres of fresh milk per year. Now do you even know what is Farm Fresh's fresh milk production per year from its own Malaysian farms
I read somewhere, Rhone Ma produces A2 milk from their farms in Malaysia and Australia which is suitable for those who are allergic to milk. Only company to do that in Malaysia.
The stock has suffered from the perception of being a 'pump-and-dump' stock in the past based on its share price history. And it is clear some here are buying with the expectation that the same thing will happen again, hoping to make a 'quick buck'. This is not the company for you
From the first foray into the ruminants and dairy milk sector, to the signing of the Kulim JV, and the fund raising for the milk processing plant, the speed at which Rhone has moved is a testament to the company's entrepreneurial drive and ability to execute. We are excited to be part of dairy cow farming (and much rather leave it to the animal health and ruminant experts in Rhone Ma and their partners in A2 Fresh (OLSB, NLN, NLF) than venturing on our own). Milk provides the highest quality nutrition and there are simply no substitutes. There is a reason why a mother's milk is all that a newborn child needs
Of course I know about their output. You think I am a dumbass or what. Their acquisition of Nor Lazuri or whatever it's called is not gonna make them beat Farm Fresh in one quarter. It could be a useless acquisition
Of course I know what's going on. The foray into dairy milk is in progress, still has yet to materialise. I will not use it to calculate future earnings for the next 2 quarters at least. The Nor Livestock Farm Sdn Bhd acquisition does not guarantee market share
Right now, Farm Fresh has a market share of 18% in RTD milk and 42% market share in chilled RTD milk. Their milk output in Malaysia is 7.0 ~ 9.0 litres (?0.5) and yield is around 15. Their Australian milk production is much higher. Output is 13.8 litres yield is more than 30.
Rhone-ma is not going to beat Farm Fresh for the next few quarters of 2022. But since we are investors, all we care about is how much profit we can earn. Rhone-ma has better growth prospects and share price/market cap appreciation. But I want to give you a realistic picture. The company is not the winner in the dairy space. Its main business is animal health.
Institutions will further suppress the share price until god knows when
In conclusion, Rhone-ma will make you richer than Farm Fresh investors. That's for sure. One is a million dollar cap company the other one is overhyped overvalued billion dollar cap hot garbage
I think Rhone Ma's main business will always be in animal health. Their forte is in animal husbandary. They treat milk production as a by-product of their R&D and currently sells their milk off-farm. Kulim will later conveniently take their milk off them. With the government's encouragement, practically every state is setting up large cattle farms and when they encounter problems, which they will, who will they look for ? Rhone Ma of course!
2021 - Rhone Ma planned to increase its cattle herd to 350 head by the end of 2021, raising its monthly milk production from 30,000 L/ month to approximately 65,000 L. - GMP (Good Manufacturing Practices at Nilai Utama Enterprise Park) commenced operations in April 2021 is running at more than 35 per cent capacity.
2022 - By end-2022, the Group?s target is to produce 120,000 L of milk per month.
2023 - New GMP in Nilai target to achieve 100% by 2023 - estimated to increase annual production capacity by 4x (2,500 tonnes, existing plant in PJ produce only 637 tonnes per annum)
2025 - Rhone Ma hopes to build the plant with a capacity of 14.4 million litres per year in Kapar, Selangor by the third quarter of 2025.
Note - Rhone Ma Holdings Bhd via its subsidiary A2 Fresh Sdn Bhd, has entered into a joint venture agreement with Kulim (Malaysia) Bhd to develop, operate and manage a potential dairy project. The initial investment required for the project will be up to RM41.4m, which will be funded through equity in the form of subscription of shares by the shareholders in proportion to their shareholding ratio in the special purpose vehicle company. - In this JV, Kulim owns 65% shares, while A2 Fresh S/B holds 35% shares. Since A2 Fresh S/B is 49% owned, Rhonema will have just 17.15% share in this dairy project. - A1 protein is even linked to diabetes, heart disease, sudden infant death syndrome and autism etc. However, those links are not confirmed. A2 milk is marketed as a healthier choice without such troublesome issues. It's reported that Rhonema is the first producer offering fresh A2 milk in Peninsular Malaysia. - Kulim is a well-known plantation giant which was taken private and delisted from main board in 2016. It's a subsidiary of Johor Corporation. Johor Corp owns famous brands such as KPJ, KFC, Pizza Hut, Ayamas, Life etc.
Guys, seriously subscribe to Farm Fresh IPO. Make short-term profits and then pump your profits into Rhone-ma. Then hold for 3 years. Guarantee you can afford down-payment on new house.
Rhone-ma is a sleeping giant. 1000x better than FFB. Farm Fresh is going to tank after IPO. I have never seen an IPO survive such high valuation except Mr DIY and Public Bank all the banks
Good company but not good operator , boss don’t want to play his counter.. so obvious blocking the share price from moving up… to those who are not in yet, go find better operators with more commitment , those already in, just forget about it, rhonema won’t move anytime soon… cheers..
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Nich996
7 posts
Posted by Nich996 > 2022-02-28 17:14 | Report Abuse
dairy industry in Malaysia is bright.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/all-ecer-states-have-dairy-valleys-within-five-years